Why Is Vlad Guerrero Still Homeless?

Vladimir Guerrero is coming off of a rebound season in 2010 hitting 29 home runs and a .300/.345/.496 slash line. But he was signed to just a one-year deal with Texas and now he's stuck in free agency limbo while the market dries up around him. Guerrero doesn't have many potential landing spots remaining since he didn't opt for the Six Million Dollar Man surgery and runs like an arthritic deer on ice. I love Vladdy but watching him play the outfield in the World Series was embarrassing for everyone involved.

The Orioles seem like the most logical destination because, well, they have officially offered Vlad a deal. The O's are standing pat and aren't willing to budge from their $4.5-5 million offer. But, Buster Olney reported that the famous mystery team has surfaced...

The Vladimir Guerrero talks will gather some momentum in the next 48 hours, one way or another. The Orioles have an offer on the table; last week, Guerrero's side informed them that they had an offer worth $8 million in play. It's not clear which team would have made the $8 million offer.

In this case, I'm inclined to believe the mystery team is actually a figment of the Guerrero camp's imagination. MLB Trade Rumors identified four potential fits for the 35-year-old DH in the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels. It's hard to imagine any of those teams offering $8 million for what would basically have to be a part time designated hitter.

If you take a closer look at his bounce back 2010 numbers, there's cause for more trepidation in offering Vlad a lucrative deal. All you have to do is look at his splits. So maybe the Angels would offer him $8 million and perhaps a couple of extra years to boot.

Vlad has always crushed the ball in Arlington and that certainly gave his 2010 season a boost.

Split	PA	H	2B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	336	98	16	16	.315	.354	.527	.881
Away	307	80	11	13	.284	.336	.461	.796

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/3/2011.

He gave up 31 points of batting average, 18 points of on base percentage and 66 points of slugging percentage. It's not the worst split I've ever seen but it's not an encouraging sign for an aging hitter.

Split	PA	H	2B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	354	103	14	20	.319	.364	.554	.919
2nd Half	289	75	13	9	.278	.322	.426	.748

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/3/2011.

Vlad also tired down the stretch and hit .220/.242/.271 in the playoffs. Splitting time might keep him fresher but surely $8 million is too much to pay for a part time hitter.

Let's take a quick look at the projections for Vlad which assume he's going to be an everyday DH.

Bill James
586 PA, 26 HR, .304/.363/.505, .373 wOBA

MARCEL
562 PA, 22 HR, .284/.335/.466, .345 wOBA

James seems high but let's split the difference and call Vlad a .360 wOBA hitter as a full time DH. That would be exactly what his wOBA was in 2010 when he was a 2.6 WAR player. That would make him worth about $10 million for 2011. But as I said, if he signs anywhere but Baltimore, he is likely to be a part time hitter.

The $8 million offer would make sense for one team but, unfortunately for me, that team hasn't been thinking clearly this off-season. Dave Cameron suggested that the Angels sign Vlad but his reasoning makes too much sense for the Halo's front office. The Angels could get some nice production from Guerrero at DH but, more importantly, his playing time could prevent Bobby Abreu's 2012 option from vesting. It's almost too good to be true like a magical clause that could void Vernon Wells' contract.

My guess is that this plays out for another few days and the Orioles kick it up to around $6 million and sign him.

Indians Equipment Leaves For Spring Training Friday

Is this really news? I think I've identified the slowest news stage of the off-season. It's this week. The biggest baseball news was that Rob Neyer left ESPN for SB Nation. Other than that, I think most baseball scribes were filling their time by making up variations of snowpocolypse on Twitter. Except for the guys at Fangraphs* who crank out tons of words everyday because I'm pretty sure Dave Cameron is running that place like it's a sweatshop with whips and arms chained to laptops.

But I officially realized we're in the news doldrums of the baseball year when Paul Hoynes scraped the bottom of the barrel for this gem...

This winter can't last forever, right?

One of the sure signs that the snow will eventually stop and the ice will melt takes place Friday when the Indians' equipment truck leaves Progressive Field for Goodyear, Ariz., to prepare for spring training.

I like Hoynsie but if we don't get that man some real baseball to write about soon, I'm afraid Cleveland fans can look forward to a series of articles about the condition of the carpet in the clubhouse.

Hurry up, Spring Training.

*Obviously, I know BP, BA and a ton of other places are still cranking out awesome content but still...

Watch Canseco Lose A Home Run Contest

Jose Canseco has become somewhat of a mascot for us here at Off Base. What can I say? I have a soft spot for wildly delusional lunatics. Canseco was our third choice, though, after we found out the Noid has a serious cocaine problem and Clara Peller died in 1987.

Even though Canseco believes he could still DH and lead the AL in home runs, no major league team offered him a job. Baffling, because he seems like he'd be a sweetheart of a teammate and wouldn't draw any unwanted attention to the franchise. Or steal training equipment.

So Canseco is taking his slugging prowess to the glamorous world of travel softball. In this video that he tweeted today, Canseco takes on hillbilly softball legend (if that's a real thing) Jeff Hall in a home run contest.



I love Jose Canseco but I really hope this softball thing doesn't work out for him because I'm pretty sure his next career move would be cage fighting an ostrich.

Chipper Jones Hit A Ball Out Of Its Skin

Chipper Jones is already putting on an impressive pre-spring training performance as he attempts to comeback from an injury riddled 2010 season. Larry tore the cover off of a ball Tuesday during batting practice when he was striking balls with great vengeance and furious anger...

While hitting in an indoor batting cage at Turner Field, the 38-year-old third baseman hit a baseball with enough force to unravel the stitching and leave the cover hanging loosely from the ball’s core.

“I think this one’s done,” Jones said, pausing to hand the ball to a team official before continuing his hitting session.

I once tore some skin off of my hands in a batting cage when I was 12 so, yeah, I'm pretty bad-ass too. Of course, the first thing I do when I'm writing a post about a player is open up their Fangraphs page. Turns out the 38-year-old Brave has had a pretty Hall of Fame career.

Obviously, I knew how good Jones was/is since I lived in Atlanta for 15 years and the fair weather fans would beat that into my brain. But sometimes you just need to reflect on a player's career stats to truly appreciate them. Or at least I do in this crazy sabermetric/Internet world we live in today.

Jones has 436 home runs and a .306/.405/.536 career slash line. While he spent some time in the outfield over the years, we're going to pretend like he's a 3rd baseman for the following WAR Grid and WAR Graph. First up, the 3rd base WAR Grid and click to enlarge.



If you really squint because you're too lazy to click, Mike Schmidt is clearly number one on that list followed by Alex Rodriguez, Eddie Mathews, Wade Boggs, Brooks Robinson and George Brett. So here's the cumulative WAR Graph by age for Jones, Mathews, Boggs and Brett.



If Jones isn't already a Hall of Fame lock, which I think he might be, another semi-healthy year or two and the HOF bust carvers can get to work.

Happy Birthday Jackie, Ernie And Nolan

As far as baseball birthdays go, you'd be hard pressed to find a more dominant crew than the guys who share January 31st. Check out this list of greatness while I run over to Carvel to pick up a Fudgie the Whale and a Cookie Puss, we're partying tonight.

Jackie Robinson - 1/31/1919
*MLB Rookie of the Year in 1947 (also something about a color barrier)
*NL MVP in 1949
*World Series Champion in 1955
*Hall of Fame induction in 1962

Ernie Banks - 1/31/1931
*NL MVP in 1958
*NL MVP in 1959
*Hall of Fame induction in 1977

Nolan Ryan - 1/31/1947
*World Series Champion in 1969
*7 no hitters
*All time strikeout king with 5714 (and walks 2795)
*Hall of Fame induction in 1999

But the Hall of Famers aren't the only ones sharing a birthday today. Arrested Development stars Jessica Walter (Lucile Bluth) turns 70 and Portia de Rossi (Lindsay Bluth Funke) turns 37. This is one of my many favorite scenes featuring Lindsay and Gob and the chicken dance...




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If that wasn't enough, Justin Timberlake and Johnny Rotten were also born today. That's a good batch of celebrity birthdays.

I share a birthday with Derek Lee, Mark Teahen and porn star Raven Riley. So, um, good for me.

Jose Canseco Tweet of the Day

You should note that he said "human being." I'm pretty sure he believes there is some form of artificial intelligence that will not only take over the human race but can also beat him in a long ball competition. Unless that was a euphemism for porn.

I desperately want to see Canseco fight 48-year-old Herschel Walker. Who do we have to call to get Canseco's ankle bracelet removed for 30 seconds?

Long Island Liquor King Wants Part Of Mets

The Wilpons are having some financial problems and this time it has nothing to do with Omar Minaya or Ollie Perez. With big losses potentially looming from the Madoff litigation, the Wilpons are looking to sell a 20-25% stake in the Mets. Or more accurately, they're looking for someone to give them 20-25% of the Mets value which was estimated at $858M by Forbes last April.

Of course, people are coming out of the woodwork with an interest in snatching up part of New York's other baseball team including Martin Luther King III and, my favorite, the Long Island Liquor King...

Silver, a liquor distributor and owner of the Georgi Vodka brand, said he is only willing to invest if he has some say in day-to-day operations of the team.

"Anybody who is going to the bank to borrow money and invest in the team isn't going to be okay with having no say in operations," said Silver.

Silver said the $858 million that Forbes estimates the team is worth is high and wants the Wilpons be "more realistic" about the price.

I'd like to pledge my support for Martin Silver even though I've never heard of Georgi Vodka (I am happy to write a review if he sends me a case though). It's a match made in heaven. Mets fans will finally be able to get their reason to drink and booze from the same place. That's synergy.

Possible Mets Drinking Games

*Take a shot for every day Jose Reyes spends on the DL

*Drink until you find a plausible reason for the Luis Castillo contract

*Blackout when the Mets are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in July

*Buy Four Loko from the Internet when they reacquire Jeff Francoeur from Kansas City

*Something about Johan Santana being injured or K-Rod punching a father figure.

I kind of ran out of steam there at the end.

Pujols Will Veto Any Trade, Now Give Him All Of Your Money

Albert Pujols has already set a spring training deadline to get an extension signed with the Cardinals and now he has apparently made it clear that he won't be approving a trade this year either...

Sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com that Pujols will not accept any trade proposal. And with his 10 and 5 rights, he has every right to do so. There’s always the chance he could change his mind, but we should probably assume that he’ll be a Cardinal this season no matter what.

Obviously the Cardinals are going to have to fork over a ton of cash to keep Pujols long term. The SportsDome suggested giving him a working key to the city. But I'm sure they can raise enough funds by putting the Arch on Craigslist or adding a "Pujols tax" to every bottle of Bud Light.

In his first 10 years in the league, Pujols has racked up 80.6 Wins Above Replacement. To put that into perspective, let's look at my favorite tool at Fangraphs, the War Graph. Here's Pujols' cumulative WAR by age compared to some guy named Stan Musial and former Yankee pinch hitter Lou Gehrig. Click to embiggen.



The 31-year-old slugger has 408 home runs and a career .331/.426/.624 line. That's such a good looking line it wouldn't even let me buy it a drink. Dave Cameron figured Pujols would be worth +42.5 WAR during a 10-year contract from 2012 through 2021. In cash, that would be about $267 million. Cameron also said somewhere (that guy is everywhere) that he wouldn't mind giving Pujols 10-years and $300 million considering the extra bump for being the entire franchise.

If he added $300 million to the $100M or so he's already made, he could finally buy Rhode Island and hunt hobos for sport in the off-season. Or was that my fantasy? Either way, that's a lot of money.

Bonus WAR Math: Pujols career WAR through 2011 80.6 + 2011 projection of 7.5 + Cameron's 2012-2021 projection 42.5 = 130.6

That would be good for 12th place all time, ahead of Gehrig and behind Eddie Collins.