BBA NL Stan Musial Award Ballot

Baseball's award season is upon us and we finally have a vote that counts for something this year. We're proud members of the Baseball Blogger Alliance and they've been kind enough to give us ballots. The only thing the BBWAA ever gave us was Jimmy Rollins as the 2007 NL MVP. It's not like Albert Pujols was worth 2 more wins and had a .429 OBP or anything. Today we'll be unveiling our NL Stan Musial ballot for player of the year. Note: I completely ignored RBI.

1. Joey Votto
Votto and Albert Pujols put up almost identical stats. Votto had the slightest of edges in WAR (wins above replacement) with a 7.4 to Pujols' 7.3, on base percentage with .424 to .414, slugging percentage with .600 to .596 and even UZR (ultimate zone rating) with 1.6 to 1.5. Pujols ended the season with five more home runs, 42 to 37. The two were almost interchangeable first basemen in the National League. Votto had 19 more points of wOBA (weighted on base average) than Pujols which cancels out my other tie-breaker. The other tie-breaker, you ask? Votto is only worth 8 Scrablle points compared to the 14 for Pujols. I'm a scientist.

2. Albert Pujols
↑ ↑ ↑

3. Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman continues to fly under the radar in Washington because of hot prospects like Sthephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper but he's been the face of the franchise for years. He hit 25 home runs and .307/.388/.510 as the best defensive third baseman in baseball (13.9 UZR) and is still just 26-years-old. His 7.2 WAR was just a shade behind that of Votto and Pujols but, unfortunately, he's destined to finish in MVP voting like Teddy Roosevelt does in the Presidents race. Okay, better than Teddy but still...

4. Roy Halladay
My NL pitcher of the year. And to be honest, I'm not entirely sure he isn't the NL MVP.

5. Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo was a beast down the stretch hitting 15 homers and .303/.366/.754 in September. He finished the regular season with a .315/.381/.568 line and a 6.4 WAR. The Rox let me down in the playoff race but I can't hate on Buster Posey. Also cool about the Colorado Rockies, they serve Denver omelets throughout the stadium at kiosks.[citation needed]

6. Matt Holliday
Holliday was a great Robin to Pujols' Batman for the Cardinals hitting .312/.390/.532 for a 6.9 WAR.

7. Adam Wainwright
My second best NL pitcher of the year.

8. Carlos Gonzalez
Cargo had a little variation in his home stats (.380/.425/.737) compared to his line away from Coors Field (.289/.322/.453). Woof. Sure the splits are ugly but he still finished with 34 home runs and a .336/.376/.598 line. That's roughly what I put up last week in my backyard Wiffle Ball league.

9. Ubaldo Jimenez
My third place NL pitcher of the year.

10. Brian McCann
There are plenty of good candidates for the final place on this ballot. While McCann's 5.3 WAR and .269/.375/.453 line weren't tops in the league, he plays a premium position and was the offensive force on his team aside from 20-year-old rookie Jason Heyward. Who says I never give Atlanta any love? Put your hands down, all of my Atlanta based friends.

Is Derwood Headed to a NASCAR race?

A little over a month ago I examined three potential triple crown candidates: Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. While Hamilton looks to be on his way to a batting title, Jose Bautista has a healthy lead in the HR race (38 to Cabrera's 31 and Hamilton's 28), and the Detroit behemoth leads the AL with 102 RBIs to Hamilton's 88. So we can probably count those two out. Votto is another story.

Back in my July 15 piece, I said if Votto wins the NL triple crown, I'll watch five minutes of a NASCAR race. That was my promise to the Offbase readers, but I thought I was safe. I certainly never thought the jerk would be so close in all three categories on August 23. I still don't think he's going to win it, so I'm raising the stakes: if Joey Votto wins the NL triple crown, I'll ATTEND a NASCAR race.

Derwood's head: "Don't press PUBLISH", don't press PUBLISH", "don't press PUBLISH..."



Votto leads the NL with a .323 average, currently five points better than Atlanta's Martin Prado. Standing in his way in the other two categories is that loser Albert Pujols, who is finally putting together a decent season for the Cardinals. Pujols has a 32-29 lead over Votto in HR (Washington's Adam Dunn is second with 31), and an 89-86 cushion in RBIs. It's basicaly Pujols vs. Votto, and with about 40 games left, I could easily see happen any of the following:

1. Pujols takes off in all three places (he's also fourth in average at .316)
2. Dunn hits a ton of home runs and leaves Pujols and Votto behind
3. Joey Votto wins the 2010 triple crown, forcing me to go Murfreesboro, TN for the Premium Select Rye Bread 500

In other words, I really want Adam Dunn to hit a lot of home runs over the next month.

Could This Be a Triple Crown Year?

John Schlegel at mlb.com wrote a story about three players-Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton and Joey Votto-who he feels are candidates to win the triple crown. It'd be the first TC winner since Boston's Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and despite the fact that it's only July 15, we'll take a look at the trio and their chances of winning.

Votto
First-half stats: Tied with Adam Dunn for lead in HR (22), tied for seventh with 60 RBIs and is seventh in average (.314).

We'll start with the long shot on Schlegel's list. Votto is having a tremendous season, leading the NL in OBP and OPS at the break, but I'm going to be completely honest: if Joey Votto wins the 2010 triple crown, I'll watch five minutes of a NASCAR race. That's how confident I am in Votto not winning. Still, the argument can be made for the Reds' first baseman: he gets on base, hits for power and drives in runs. Or as Joe Morgan would say, he's very consistent.


Hamilton
First-half stats: Tied with Cabrera for league-leading average (.346) and second-most HR (22). Fourth in RBIs (64).

Hamilton had a slash line of .281/.335/.500 at the end of May, but you know what they say: anyone who gets worked up over May numbers is probably John Kruk. Since June 1, the Texas center fielder has been outstanding, pushing his slash up to .346/.390/.625. The triple crown is in reach for Hamilton for several reasons, not the least of which is the ballpark he plays in and the offense he mashes in the middle of. The HR and RBI totals should stay within the league leaders all summer, but I'm not sure he can sustain that .340+ average (career high is .304 in 2008), and hold off guys like Cabrera, Justin Morneau and Robinson Cano.


Cabrera
First-half stats: No. 1 in average (.346) RBIs (77), while trailing Toronto's Jose Bautista in home runs, 24-22.

Cabrera's current slash numbers (.346/.423/.651) and an OPS+ of 182 would shatter his career totals if kept up. There's good reason to think he'll sustain the HR and RBI numbers-top 6 in HR each of the last three seasons including the '08 title and 112 or more RBIs in five of the last six seasons-it's just a question of whether, like Hamilton, he can hold off Morneau, Cano and others for the batting title. At the break, eight AL players were hitting at least .326.


Obligatory mention of Albert Pujols

Let's not forget Albert. He's second in HR (21), one back of Votto and Adam Dunn, and one RBI behind leaders Corey Hart, Ryan Howard and David Wright (65 to 64). And though he's hitting just .308, 10th-best in the NL, you want to bet against him passing these guys for the batting title? I don't.

Shot Of The Night

Shot Of The Night is Off Base Percentage's toast to a player who had an exceptionally good or bad night. There's always a reason to drink.

Tonight we're bringing back the Big Red: 1/2 oz Irish cream, 1/2 oz Goldschlager® cinnamon schnapps for the shot of the night, even though it's disgusting. And it's in honor of Joey Votto.

I detailed Joey Votto's All Star snub earlier and the kid backed me up today. Votto went 3-4 with 2 homers and 2 RBI to raise his slash line to .318/.418/.599. If you don't believe that he should be the starting first baseman for the NL, we can't be friends.

Omar Infante: 0-4, 2 strikeouts.

Honorable Mention: Roy Halladay
Halladay threw another complete game. His bullpen management is fantastic. Halladay gave up 1 run on 5 hits while striking out 7 and lowering his ERA to 2.33. Oh, he also only threw 93 pitches. I'm not sure he's human.

Weekly Cup Of Joe

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

I keep forgetting to check in with Joe Morgan on Tuesdays. This World Cup fever is really getting to me. I might have to go to the free clinic. I gave my grandpa a yellow card the other day for taking too long at the refrigerator. Usually, I like to just grab a nugget of wisdom from every Joe Chat over at the Four Letter but today's Weekly Cup of Joe is going to be a grande. Let's get going kids...

Brian (New York)

Joe, has Robinson Cano finally reached his potential or is there more to come?

Joe Morgan (11:04 AM)

I don't know if there is more to come, but he's a great player, and you can't always measure a great player by numbers, so I don't know what you mean by "potential". To ask, is there more to come? I don't know.

I love how Joe's standard reply has become, "To answer your question, I don't know." That's the hard hitting analysis I deliver here for free. Somebody needs to start sending me money. I could have sworn I copyrighted that. And I thought all we did was measure great players by their numbers. Why do you think people spent so much time on WAR or wOBA? Why do you hate metrics SO MUCH? Then this happened...

Joseph (St. Louis)

Who's will be the NL Central Champs?

Congrats Joseph in St. Louis, you failed English. After I wiped the blood from my eyes, I moved on to this question...

Tito (Brooklyn)

Joe, with the emergence of Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez, is Ryan Howard now only the 4th best hitting first baseman in the NL?

Joe Morgan (11:25 AM)

Are you kidding? Ryan Howard's the only guy besides Pujols that does what a first baseman is supposed to do -- he hits home runs, drives in runs, and leads his team to the World Series. Everyone took a shot at his contract -- he's been Rookie of the Year, MVP, and led his team to a World Championship and two consecutive World Series appearances. Has anybody done that other than Pujols? None of those guys have done that. I wonder why no one questions Matt Holliday's similar contract -- he's never won an MVP award or won a World Series. His numbers were put up in Colorado, where everyone puts up big hitting numbers. He's the second-best first baseman in the league, not fourth-best.

Uhh, *head explodes* Yeah, Howard jacks home runs and has a surprisingly high OBP for the amount of strikeouts he accrues. He's a three-true-outcome player. He's Adam Dunn in a better lineup. Just, let's just look at the last three years of OPS+. Does that sound reasonable?

Howard: 2010 - 124 OPS+, 2009 - 140 OPS+, 2008 - 124 OPS+

Gonzalez: 2010 - 173 OPS+ (best in the NL), 2009 - 166 OPS+, 2008 - 139 OPS+

Votto: 2010 - 154 OPS+, 2009 - 155 OPS+, 2008 - 125 OPS+

Recap: Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez have been better hitters than Ryan Howard over the past three years.