Team Value in Return or, How the Astros are Still a Laughing Stock

Casual baseball fans, think about the game on a semi-regular basis. How do I know this? I too was once a casual fan. Bloggers, are not casual fans. We spend our spare time thinking about what we can write about next and whether or not we wrote about it a week ago, or if some other blog has already tackled the subject. In other words, our bottles of soap and shampoo last much longer than that of a casual fan. So, in the spirit of blogging instead of showering, I decided to calculate the value that each team has gotten in return on their investments (players) up to this point in the season.


A couple of quick things about the table below.

1.) All the payrolls are prorated for the amount of games that each team has played so far this season. So, no, the Dodgers did not find a way to shrink their payroll down to $113MM without any news media outlet finding out. I will note however, that if I had left the salaries at the full season amount, some teams would already show up with a positive difference between the value earned and money spent. But I will touch on that later because I have to be fair to the Yankees

2.) The goal is to find the value earned based on Fangraphs' version of Wins Above Replacement. Emphasis on "Above." Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus explained to me that this exercise shouldn't penalize teams for players that are playing at replacement level and that since the league minimum salary is already priced into the concept of WAR, it should be removed, and that teams should be compared by what they spend above and beyond that. So the league minimum salary of $490,000 (side note: I should have kept playing baseball) has been removed for each player on a teams roster. And that has been prorated to adjust for games played by each team, or (490,000 * 25) * .52. Simple, right? In this case, that amount is $6,492,500.

3.) There is no "3." But everyone always has a third bullet point, and I wanted one too. So there it is.

First and foremost; Damnit, Jeffery Loria. So much damnit. He shipped off almost every player that was making any serious money before the season started and somehow, some way, the Marlins already have accrued more value then he has paid out in salary up to this point. Damnit.

Everybody say it with me: AstroLOLs. Their total payroll of $26.1MM for the 2013 season is the lowest in all of baseball. It is more than $200MM less than what the Yankees are spending this season per Baseball Prospectus. Yet there they are, in the negative by more than $4MM. Don't ever change, Houston. Don't ever change.

The Rays, Athletics and Pirates have three of the five lowest payrolls in baseball. The Rays and Athletics have recieved already in return, more than $100MM in value from their players. And the Pirates are right there at $97.68MM. 

The Yankees and the Dodgers are the only two teams with payrolls north of $200MM, and unless they go on serious tears to close out the season, they don't have a snowballs chance in H-E-double hockey sticks of generating positive value.

Mike Trout has accrued an fWAR of 5.1, just under half of what the Angels offense has been worth this season so far. Mike Trout is the best. Ditto for Miguel Cabrera who's fWAR is already at 5.7. The difference between the two, salary. Cabrera is making $21MM this season and is already worth $28.7MM. Trout is making $510,000 this season and is already worth $25.5MM. Miguel Cabrera has been better this season by fWAR, but Mike Trout has been far more valuable in terms of money.

Three of the four teams that are in the negative for value, have the three highest salaries in baseball (Yankees, Dodgers and Phillies). The other is the Astros. So, once again, LOL Astros. But unlike the Dodgers and Yankees, the Phillies have an outside chance of at least breaking even by seasons end. Maybe. Possibly. Probably not. But, possibly. And it serves as a great example that money spent does not necessarily equate to value in return.

So, in case you were wondering (and even if you weren't, because I was anyway) about how much value your team, or some other team may have generated during the season so far relative to whatever portion of $3.19 Billion being spent by Major League Baseball on player payrolls (Wow!), there's the table. At least, if nothing else, I finally learned how to use Microsoft Excel. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go take a shower. I'm sure I have plenty of soap.

Atlanta Braves Burn Money, Sign B.J. Upton

Give a General Manager a blank check, and he'll most likely waste it on a player with hype. The Atlanta Braves and B.J. Upton agreed to a five year $75.25 million contract (pending a physical), skewing the market and all but assuring that Michael Bourn will probably now get the $100 million contract that he is seeking. At the same exact moment, Tinker Bell died. Well played Mr. Wren, well played.

(AP) Paid, homey.

It's not Upton's fault. He wasn't going to go into the negotiation and say "I don't know Frank, $75.25 million? you realize that I hit .246 last year right?" B.J. is getting paid and most bloggers will be ecstatic because now we can break out the "overpriced fellatio" jokes that we have been dying to use. So maybe a small amount of thanks is in order on our part. That feeling quickly disappears when the idea of signing an outfielder at some point in the future crosses our minds and we think, "Damnit, Upton got $75.25 mil. What the hell is it going to take next year to sign Carlos Gomez?" 

Dodgers Spend $25.7MM to Talk

It looks like money does grow on trees somewhere near Chavez Ravine. As if the Dodgers hadn't spent enough money over the last six months through trades, personnel additions and signing Cuban defectors to send Fort Knox into financial ruin, they felt it was necessary to pony up $25.7MM......just to talk. I guess the front office didn't get the memo that Verizon has plans starting at $30 a month.

Of course, it's not like they are blowing it on just anything. The amount is the posting fee for Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu, giving the team 30 days to negotiate a contract with the 25 year old pitcher. To be fair to Ryu, he has been an absolute monster in the KBO. In 2006 he won the ROY and the MVP (the only member of the KBO to do so), has one Wins Title, two ERA Titles and five Strikeout Titles. He also led South Korea to the Gold Medal in the 2008 olympics and then in 2009 led South Korea to the championship game in the WBC.

Rafael Soriano Doesn't Like Easy Money

Why you hatin'?

According to this John Heyman report (Does anyone else find it odd that Heyman always breaks news about Boras clients?), Rafael Soriano is expected to decline his $14 million player option for 2013. Which makes no sense to this humble blogger writing this from the basement of his parents house (at least that's what newspaper writers would like for you to believe).

Scott Boras is renowned for being able to squeeze every last cent from teams pursuing one of his clients. But, it's not as if Raf-Sor is getting any younger. at 33 years old, he probably expects Boras to spin a one year deal into a four year pact with some dopey GM who believes the save stat is as useful as the RBI stat. It's not like he has a Tony Reagins to pray on this offseason.

Jayson Werth Wants Every Penny He Can Get

Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth is about to hit free agency at the end of the season and figures to be one the most sought after properties during the hot stove period. Werth bounced around as a prospect between the Blue Jays and Dodgers before realizing his potential in Philadelphia in 2007. Since joining the Phightins', he has 88 homers and a .280/.378/.498 line. The 31-year-old outfielder will depart the brotherly love of Philly during free agency while seeking a Jason Bay-esque contract that he won't live up to and the team will regret for 3 years.

But Jayson is certainly chasing the cash. The Phils could offer an extension but Raul Ibanez is eating all of Philly's payroll like a stray goat in a recycling yard. And my 4th grade teacher said I'd never master a simile. It doesn't really matter though, Werth wants the money, yo. Werth has reportedly cut ties with his former agency, the Beverly Hills Sports Council, and is seeking new representation.

Shouldn't be hard for the second best free agent outfielder to find a new agent, right? Not so fast hot shot. Werth can't land Boras or the Levinsons because he doesn't want to kick out that 5%. You want 3% of his cantract? Shoot him an email. I did. And Master P, if you're reading this, I want a finder's fee.

Okay, it's his free agent market after Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee sign somewhere. But if they both end up Yankees, Werth won't need that extra 2% to cover New York taxes and the cost of take out and cigarettes. That might not be entirely true, he'll probably end up in Los Angeles.