Time To Discuss Gary Sheffield And The HOF

Gary Sheffield officially hung them up on Thursday after a 22 season career. My initial reaction, after a cursory glance at his stats, was that he is Hall of Fame worthy.
See? I guess now would be a good time to show my work even though I might not agree with my original thesis anymore. The stats are there. The 509 home runs are good for 24th all time. His .292/.393/.514 line is solid. While he never won an MVP, he did have three top five finishes and six top 10s. According to Baseball-Reference, similar batters to him include Mel Ott, Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle.

But then, against the advice of my therapist, I went digging through some Wins Above Replacement data. Sheffield finished with a 65.8 WAR which is right in that 60-70 HOF bubble. Larry Walker finished with a 72.2 WAR and received 20.3% of the 2011 Hall of Fame voting. So we might not want to start betting on which hat Sheff will be enshrined in just yet.

Sheffield won't even have the highest WAR of first time eligible outfielders in five years. Jim Edmonds also just retired after not being healthy enough to try one last run with the Cardinals. I already wrote about Edmonds' HOF candidacy and I was leaning toward imaginary voting yes. So I guess I'm leaning yes on Sheffield too. His case just isn't as slam dunk as I initially thought. I mean, look at the WAR Graph people.


Of course, if Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell aren't in by then, the whole system is broken anyway.

My first draft of this post was longer and nerdier. But I accidentally erased that one and lost interest in writing it again. Deal with it.

Pujols Will Veto Any Trade, Now Give Him All Of Your Money

Albert Pujols has already set a spring training deadline to get an extension signed with the Cardinals and now he has apparently made it clear that he won't be approving a trade this year either...

Sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com that Pujols will not accept any trade proposal. And with his 10 and 5 rights, he has every right to do so. There’s always the chance he could change his mind, but we should probably assume that he’ll be a Cardinal this season no matter what.

Obviously the Cardinals are going to have to fork over a ton of cash to keep Pujols long term. The SportsDome suggested giving him a working key to the city. But I'm sure they can raise enough funds by putting the Arch on Craigslist or adding a "Pujols tax" to every bottle of Bud Light.

In his first 10 years in the league, Pujols has racked up 80.6 Wins Above Replacement. To put that into perspective, let's look at my favorite tool at Fangraphs, the War Graph. Here's Pujols' cumulative WAR by age compared to some guy named Stan Musial and former Yankee pinch hitter Lou Gehrig. Click to embiggen.



The 31-year-old slugger has 408 home runs and a career .331/.426/.624 line. That's such a good looking line it wouldn't even let me buy it a drink. Dave Cameron figured Pujols would be worth +42.5 WAR during a 10-year contract from 2012 through 2021. In cash, that would be about $267 million. Cameron also said somewhere (that guy is everywhere) that he wouldn't mind giving Pujols 10-years and $300 million considering the extra bump for being the entire franchise.

If he added $300 million to the $100M or so he's already made, he could finally buy Rhode Island and hunt hobos for sport in the off-season. Or was that my fantasy? Either way, that's a lot of money.

Bonus WAR Math: Pujols career WAR through 2011 80.6 + 2011 projection of 7.5 + Cameron's 2012-2021 projection 42.5 = 130.6

That would be good for 12th place all time, ahead of Gehrig and behind Eddie Collins.

Vernon Wells Is An Upgrade From Juan Rivera, Right?

Yesterday I took a look at Mike Napoli vs Vernon Wells as hitters. And while this isn't becoming an Angels blog, it does seem like I have an awful lot to write about them lately. I think the guys over at the Orange County Register are egging me on though. Dan Woike recently wondered "Was Angels' Juan Rivera That Bad?" I'm not sure what his answer was because I'm allergic to slideshows but it did get me thinking.

How much better is Wells compared to Rivera? It's a little easier to compare the two since they're both 32-year-old outfielders. And Wells has a clear advantage in Wins Above Replacement because Rivera has the mobility of a wounded pylon (except for his outlying 2009 season). Click image to embiggen.



In terms of overall value, Wells is clearly the superior player even with him, hopefully, moving to left field. But in pure hitting terms, you might as well flip a coin. Yes, I am still using wOBA and, as always, click to enlarge.



These aren't especially comforting graphs for Angels fans. Now, I'm not saying Rivera is close to the player that Wells is because he isn't. I'd much rather have Wells than Rivera in a vacuum but we can't ignore the Wells contract.

Could the Angels have suffered through a Bobby Abreu/Juan Rivera left field and found better production from a Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon designated hitter? If we turn a blind eye to defense for this experiment, I think the answer is yes. Plus that assortment of players could have just been a place holder until Mike Trout arrives.

Of course, this has just become a "could have, should have" exercise for me at this point. Actual results may vary.

Cliff Lee's All Time Competition From Ages 32-36

It didn't escape me in my posting absence that Cliff Lee spurned the Rangers and Yankees to re-join the Phillies on a 5-year, $120 million deal. But by now, you've all heard every opinion possible about the matter. Jeez, Craig Calcaterra's crew at Hardball Talk wrote 16 posts about him in 18 hours. Instead of figuring out Texas' and New York's contingency plans or why the Angels are sitting on their hands, I wanted to take a look at what the Phillies hope they're getting over the next five years in a pitcher who will start his contract as a 32-year-old.

My research might not stand up to some of those who practice the Sabr science for a profession but I think it's a good once over for someone losing roughly $1.49 every month on this site. Also, Fangraphs WAR doesn't go past 1980 in the history annals so I'm using the similarly awesome stats from Baseball-Reference. Obviously, I didn't include pitchers from the deadball era because none of them lived to be 32.[citation needed]

1. Bob Gibson
Years: 1968-1972 WAR: 43.9 ERA: 2.35 ERA+: 150
The HOF Cardinal pitcher had an unbelievable five year stretch after he turned 32. His top WAR seasons were in 1968 (11.9), 1969 (11.0), 1970 (8.7) and 1972 (7.6). Nobody can be expecting Cliff Lee to touch these numbers but it could be possible Lee is hitting his peak on the typical wrong side of 30.

2. Randy Johnson
Years: 1997-2001 WAR: 37.4 ERA: 2.64 ERA+: 174
Technically, I'm cheating here. Johnson's first season that he started as a 32-year-old was 1996 but he only tossed 61.1 innings. If I swap out Johnson's 2002 season for his 1996 season, he ends up with a 30.2 WAR which would still be tied for second place. While I have no reason to expect Lee to be healthy for his 32-year-old season or even his 37-year-old season, it's always nice to appreciate how good The Big Unit was after he turned 30 or 32 or 37 or 42. His 91.8 career WAR should be a first class ticket to the Hall of Fame even if Bert Blyleven is still flying standby with his 90.1 WAR.

3. Roger Clemens
Years: 1995-1999 WAR: 30.2 ERA: 3.27 ERA+: 145
Clemens rollercoasted his single seasons WARs over a 24-year career accumulating an insane 128.4 of them. It's hard to predict how his alleged performance enhancing or sleeping with under aged country music stars will affect his Hall of Fame candidacy but the numbers should put him in by a landslide. These are all probably topics for another post but the Phils would be thrilled with that kind of performance over Lee's contract even if some indiscretions involving Taylor Swift popped up years from now.

4. Warren Spahn
Years: 1953-1957 WAR: 30.1 ERA: 2.79 ERA+: 132
I included the "liveball" wins leader because, well, he's the liveball wins leader. His 101 complete games is the closest to rivaling Gibson's 122 over the 32-36 year-old age bracket but Spahn posted a 1.80 K/BB ratio over that period and Cliff Lee might be able to top it with his eyes closed.

5. Kevin Brown
Years: 1997-2001 WAR: 30.0 ERA: 2.66 ERA+: 155
Brown had an even better 5-year streak that began just a year earlier in 1996 and ended with his 6.5 WAR as a 35-year-old. His 64.8 WAR makes him an interesting case for the Hall of Fame even though he only finished in the top three of Cy Young voting twice (both in his 32-36 range) during his 19 seasons while never winning it. Lee has already won one but will have to duel with a teammate for any future award. Either way, the Phillies would be more than happy to boast two or three of the National League's best pitchers in the upcoming seasons.

6. Phil Niekro
Years: 1971-1975 WAR: 30.0 ERA: 2.97 ERA+: 128
I could have left the list at a reasonable five but I felt like I'd be letting Rob Neyer down if I didn't include a knuckleballer on the list. And I wish I had a better reason than that because Niekro's 2.17 K/BB was only better than Spahn's aforementioned 1.90 ratio. Am I secretly hoping Lee starts throwing a knuckleball? Perhaps. Are the Phillies? Not so much.

7. David Cone
Years: 1995-1999 WAR: 23.8 ERA: 3.32 ERA+: 139
Mmmhmm. Which brings us to...

8. Greg Maddux
Years: 1998-2002 WAR: 23.7 ERA: 2.88 ERA+: 152
Welcome to the confusing stat portion of our program. Maddux had the third best ERA+ of this bunch and second best K/BB ratio (4.16) to Johnson's (4.48) but doesn't have the shiny WAR of his colleagues. Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) has him at 31.1 which, I assume, does a better job of evaluating his "Gold Glove" defense using UZR instead of Total Zone. Take a deep breath, don't let all of that nerdiness get to your head at once. However you look at Maddux's performance from 32 to 36, the Phillies would not regret their payroll splurge. But don't be surprised if a cheesesteak will run you around $33 inside the stadium, it's player number integration pricing!

The Math
It might be presumptuous to compare Cliff Lee to some of the greatest pitchers in baseball history but there is a case to be made that Lee could be great into his mid-thirties. Baseball-Reference has Lee as about a 5.5 WAR player per year over the past three seasons. Fangraphs has him as almost a 7 WAR player per season over that time. Let's say Lee ends up being a 6 WAR player over his Philly contract. If a player on the free market is worth $6 million per point of WAR, that would make Lee worth $180 million over five years instead of the $120 Philadelphia is paying him (and that's without inflation!).

Assuming Lee stays healthy over the next five years is a big leap of faith. But he will be playing with Doc Halladay who is two years into a pace that would make him the second greatest pitcher between the ages of 32 and 36. Doc might have some staying healthy secrets he can share. Or he's just some kind of freak of nature. Either way, I'm betting Lee stays healthy enough to make this contract look like a relative steal for the Phillies. Note: I'm a big sucker for WAR and terrible at gambling, actual results may vary.

Ryan Zimmerman Gets Chase Utley'd

The BBWAA released the outcome of the voting for the National League MVP earlier today and Joey Votto ran away with the award. Votto grabbed 31 of the 32 first place votes while Albert Pujols vultured the remaining top vote to prevent the sweep. Both hard slugging first basemen were deserving of the award so it's not worth dissecting how close the two really were despite the wide margin of victory. Besides, Rob Neyer already did that.

Instead, I'll use this space to complain about Ryan Zimmerman's 16th place finish. I may have written a few words in the past about the lack of MVP support that Chase Utley has received over his career. I mean, Utley has been the second best player in the NL since, roughly, 2005 but the highest he's ever finished in MVP voting is 7th. Hell, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard have even won MVPs when Utley was a more worthy candidate. I could go on but there's some pretty ominous wording in this restraining order. (Can't resist; Utley finished with the 14th best fWAR and received zero MVP votes this season) Okay, on to Zimmerman and his Utley treatment.

I had Zimmerman third on my BBA ballot which might have been a tad high in retrospect but I wouldn't have had him lower than 5th-ish. How could I be so far off from the people who get paid to write about baseball? What do they know that I'm missing? Let's go to a little Twitter conversation with Fox Sports' own miniature baseball insider Ken Rosenthal.



First I'd like to take a moment to reflect on how polite I was. I was surprisingly calm for something I so vehemently disagree with. Contending team? That's it? Really? Strap on the nerd boots and let's go to the stats...

Ryan Zimmerman
142 G, 25 HR, .307 AVG, .388 OBP, .510 SLG, 13.9 UZR, 7.2 fWAR (Fangraph's WAR)

Scott Rolen
132 G, 20 HR, .285 AVG, .358 OBP, .497 SLG, 10.6 UZR, 5.0 fWAR

In Rosenthal's eyes, playing for a contending team negates the fact that Zimmerman was worth TWO more wins than Rolen. That is a significant gap even with the 10 extra games Zimmerman played. Rolen only finished two spots and eight points ahead of Zimmerman in the final tally but it still hurts my brain.

I might put more stock in WAR than I should but Fangraphs loved Zimmerman this season. His 7.2 WAR was only one tenth of a point behind Albert Pujols and two tenths behind Joey Votto. That would make him the third most valuable in the National League for the 2010 season. Yet, like Chase Utley before him, he was almost ignored in MVP voting. Why?

Much of Zimmerman's value is tied to his brilliant defense at third base. While there aren't any perfect metrics for defense, the nerds in basements have been making big strides in understanding defense and it's value. But, I guess it's still easier for the mainstream media to give votes to a terrible fielding first baseman who hits 31 home runs and strikes out over 150 times (Ryan Howard received a 2nd and 3rd place vote).

Still, 16th place is absurd. And so begins my crusade to get Ryan Zimmerman more MVP respect. Don't hold your breath, Ryan, it didn't help Chase any.

More fun with the NL MVP results
*Troy Tulowitzki finished 5th; five voters left him off of their ballots.
*Martin Prado finished 9th because why not.
*Brian Wilson finished well ahead of Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson.
*Jimenez received one fourth place vote and that's it.
*Carlos Ruiz (Chooch!) finished ahead of Brian McCann.
*Buster Posey finished 11th including one third place vote. Not a bad year.

Halladay Unanimous, Johnson Undervalued

The BBWAA announced that Roy Halladay picked up all 32 first place votes on his way to winning the National League Cy Young. Exactly zero people were surprised. Halladay was the perfect storm of shiny mainstream stats and nerdy advanced metrics. His 21 wins, nine complete games, four shutouts and 250.2 innings led the league. The 2.44 ERA was second, 3.01 FIP was third, 2.92 xFIP was first just like his 6.6 WAR. I had Halladay first on my ballot for the BBA where he also finished first unanimously.

So the right guy won and won running away but, as a blogger, it's my duty to find something to bitch about. I could complain about Brian Wilson and Heath Bell getting more voting love than Tim Lincecum but instead I'll just point out that nobody, including me, realized how good Josh Johnson was in 2010. I had him fourth on my ballot and that's where he finished in the BBA standings. The BBWAA had him fifth behind Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tim effing Hudson.

Really Johnson, Wainwright and Jimenez could have finished in any order after Halladay but Johnson didn't receive a single second place vote. I suppose the BBWAA reasoning was the same as mine. Johnson only pitched 183.2 innings which was 45 fewer than Hudson, 38 from Jimenez and 47 from Wainwright. Obviously that a pretty substantial gap in usage but he was brilliant when on the mound. His 2.30 ERA and 2.41 FIP were tops in the league and his 6.3 WAR was tied with Jimenez for second. If I had it to do over, I might have had Johnson second.

I guess this rant was more about Hudson who finished fourth due to his 17 wins and 2.83 ERA. Hudson's actual ERA should have been closer to his 4.09 FIP. Hudson was incredibly lucky thanks to a 2.50 BABIP and his 2.7 WAR ranked 29th among starting pitchers. I know I'm more obsessed with WAR than I should be but Hudson wasn't anywhere close to the top five pitchers in the NL.

Felt like I should have had more to complain about but I guess that will have to wait until Thursday when the AL Cy Young gets announced. That one is going to be filled with nonsense.

Dissecting The BBA Walter Johnson Awards

The BBA announced their Walter Johnson Award winners for the AL and NL pitcher of the year. The Baseball Blogger Alliance is made up of 233 blogs that range in covering all 30 teams to general baseball. The voting mirrors that of the BBWAA and is broken up into chapters. Our little blog of stats and nonsense votes in the general baseball chapter because the BBA wouldn't give us an entire chapter of our own dedicated to some borderline unstable writing. Stonsense is what we've been throwing around the office but we're open to suggestions.

I don't have a problem with the voting outcome for the National League since the final tally was almost identical to my ballot except I had Tim Lincecum fifth and left Tim Hudson off of my ballot. Plus, Roy Halladay won unanimously. So, good job bloggers. The AL ballot, however, ugh. I thought we were making some progress in the blogosphere but I spend an inordinate amount of time at FanGraphs. Oh Dave Cameron, your site has ruined my productivity. I only get around to about two naps per day now thanks to FanGraphs. I should note, if it isn't obvious, that I use FanGraphs' WAR (fWAR) for my analysis. Let's take a look at the the final voting for the AL pitcher of the year...

1. Felix Hernandez
I have no issue with Felix in the top spot. I had Felix first on my ballot and, while I didn't think he was the runaway winner, the BBA voters did. Felix received 18 of 22 first place votes for 137 points. I thought Felix was going to win and I thought he was deserving but I would have preferred to see more love for my second pick instead of...

2. CC Sabathia
Oy. I'm afraid this will be the outcome of the BBWAA voting as well but I was hoping for a little more from my blogging brethren. Sabathia led the AL in wins with a shiny 21-7 record. Yay, wins! He finished with a 3.18/3.54/3.78 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line and a 5.1 WAR (wins above replacement). The ERA was nice but he finished worth 1.9 runs fewer than Cliff Lee. Sabathia's 2.66 K/BB is laughable compared to Lee's 10.28 K/BB ratio. The only argument I can see against Lee to be the top choice, or second, is that he just pitched 212.1 innings. But I don't think that three extra starts for the Yankees gives Sabathia any case here. In fact, I left him off of my ballot all together.

3. David Price
Price had the second most wins in the American League with a 19-6 record but had a much shinier ERA than Sabathia. Price finished with a 2.72/3.42/3.99 line but his 2.38 K/BB ratio was also dwarfed by Cliff Lee's and Price actually threw 3.2 fewer innings. Lee also dominated Price in WAR, 7.0 to 4.3. Somebody please explain to me how Price was better than Lee and don't even think about using the "w" word. For the record, I had Jered Weaver in this spot because he was second in K/BB to Lee and led the AL in SIERA. Weaver was also worth 1.6 more wins than Price.

4. Cliff Lee
Bout damn time. Although he didn't receive one first place vote but Sabathia got three and Price got one. *aims shotgun at pitcher wins*

5. Jered Weaver
I don't have a problem with Weaver at five. Maybe I overrated him some because of his SIERA and FIP and K/BB ratio. His 5.9 fWAR was good for exactly fifth place in the AL.

So who, in my opinion, was erroneously left out of the top five? I'm glad you didn't ask. I had Justin Verlander fourth thanks to his AL second best 6.3 fWAR. I said in my ballot post that Verlander was probably a straight WAR pick since his peripherals weren't otherworldly. Not entirely true, his 2.97 FIP was third best in the AL. But his strikeout rate was down and his xFIP was higher than anyone else I've mentioned except for Sabathia and Price. Verlander finished last with only five points in the voting. Yikes.

My final choice was Francisco Liriano. He only pitched 191.2 innings but he had an AL best 3.06 xFIP and second best 3.02 SIERA. If I've lost you but you kept reading for whatever reason, that means Liriano severely outpitched his 3.62 ERA. He was roughly worth a win more than Sabathia and two wins more than Price. I don't won't to preach too much about randomness or luck because that's not what we started this site for but it should at least be recognized. Liriano was extremely unlucky this season.

I filled out all of my ballots based on who I thought the best players were and not how I thought the BBWAA results were going to turn out. I suspect the BBWAA voting will mirror the BBA's when it comes time for them to reveal their Cy Youngs. But I'll take comfort from the Bible passage that claims the nerds will inherit the Earth. Or that might have been from a Simpsons episode or I made it entirely.

BBA AL Walter Johnson Award Ballot

Baseball's award season is upon us and we finally have a vote that counts for something this year. We're proud members of the Baseball Blogger Alliance and they've been kind enough to give us ballots. The only thing the BBWAA ever gave us was an autographed Brien Taylor baseball signed in crayon. Today we'll be unveiling our AL Walter Johnson ballot for pitcher of the year. Note: I completely ignored wins.

1. Felix Hernandez
I'm almost reluctant to place King Felix first here because I have a much stronger statistical case for my second place vote getter. And sorry New York, CC didn't even make my ballot. Felix is certainly deserving after pitching a 2.27/3.04/3.26 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line over 249.2 innings. He finished the season with a 6.2 WAR and a 3.19 SIERA. It was a fantastic season by all accounts and the only reason for Mariners' fans to undo the nooses they fashioned around the ceiling fan in their parents' dining room. But...

2. CLiff Lee
Some fair warning, I love the stats more than Jay and Silent Bob love the mother effing Time. Lee led all pitchers in WAR (7.0) and also led the galaxy with a 10.28 K/BB ratio. So, Lee's final pitching line was 3.18/2.58/3.23 and he had a 3.03 SIERA but threw around 37 fewer innings than Felix. Are four starts enough to justify putting Hernandez over Lee? I'm not sure. The other issue I looked at here was Lee's average .302 BABIP compared to Hernandez's .273 BABIP. Neither was particularly lucky or unlucky and the difference can probably be explained by Lee being a slightly more flyball pitcher (40.4%) than Hernandez (29.8%). The two were much closer than I initially thought and I just about flipped a coin for the top spot. I suspect Felix will run away with this award but Lee is just as deserving.

3. Jered Weaver
Weaver was asked to become the staff ace after John Lackey's free agent departure and Weaver rose to the occasion. Weaver led the American League in strikeouts with 233, one more than Felix Hernandez. He finished with a .301/3.06/3.51 line and a 5.9 WAR. Weaver's 2.97 SIERA was tops among AL starters. To reinforce just how dominant Cliff Lee was, Weaver finished with the second highest K/BB ratio (4.31) but was still three light years behind Lee's ridiculous 10.28 ratio. Like Felix to the Mariners, Weaver was one of the lone bright spots in a disappointing Angels' season.

4. Justin Verlander
Here's my straight WAR pick. Verlander had a good season with a 3.37/2.97/3.68 line and his 6.3 WAR was second in the League to Cliff Lee. Verlander's strikeout numbers dipped form 10.09 K/9 to 8.79 dooming my fantasy baseball team.

5. Francisco Liriano
Liriano had a much better season than his 3.62 ERA suggested but I don't how how much the BBWAA will look at his 2.66 FIP or 3.06 xFIP for voting purposes. David Price and CC Sabathia are sure to get more ballot love thanks to their shiny win totals. Liriano was even unlucky to some extent with a .340 BABIP that would have been higher if he didn't have the Twins defense behind him.

BBA NL Goose Gossage Award Ballot

Baseball's award season is upon us and we finally have a vote that counts for something this year. We're proud members of the Baseball Blogger Alliance and they've been kind enough to give us ballots. The only thing the BBWAA ever gave us was a virus when we opened their penis enlargement email. Not that we need it. Today we'll be unveiling our NL Goose Gossage ballot for reliever of the year. Note: I completely ignored saves.

1. Carlos Marmol
I'm just as shocked as you. I expected John Axford to finish higher on my ballot than the Cubs' closer. But Marmol had some ungodly stats. Strap on your nerd skis, it's all down hill from here. And yes, I realize I'm getting lamer by the minute, please don't send emails to inform of that. I'm actively looking for help. Marmol finished with a 2.55/2.01/2.95 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line which was good for an NL reliever best 3.1 WAR. All of that would have been good enough for me to give him the top spot on this ballot but the ridiculous 15.99 K/9 rate sails him past the rest of the competition. Marmol did that over 77.2 innings which is more than a lot of relievers can say. Surprisingly dominant. I honestly can't wait to see the outcome of this voting because I don't think Marmol got enough credit this year.

2. Brian Wilson
Sure his playoff beard used to sell Oxy Clean on infomercials. Wilson was fantastic in the closer role for the Giants in 2010. Over 74.2 innings, he tossed 1.81/2.19/2.99 good for the second highest reliever WAR in baseball (2.7). Wilson struck out 11.21 over 9 innings and, more importantly, his facial hair was only overshadowed by whatever is growing out of Jayson Werth's face.

3. Heath Bell
Call me a sucker for WAR. Go ahead, I'll wait. Bell finished third in baseball with his 2.4 reliever WAR. He tossed 1.93/2.05/3.11 ball while striking out 11.06 over 9 innings. Bell's competition for this spot was Billy Wagner. Wagner went 1.43/2.10/2.34 for a 2.2 WAR. Unfortunately for Wagner, rock beats scissors. Science.

New York at Minnesota

As soon as I start a baseball blog, the Angels miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006. I hope you like your post-season previews filled with animosity and tears.

Derwood wanted to write this preview but he opened an email from some porn-spam and it burned down his apartment. Now he's selling oranges off of the 75-loop in Atlanta, swing by on your commute. The Yanks face the Twins at 7:37 Central Time Wednesday night so long as George Lopez doesn't have an emergency prime-time special.

My Completely Biased Opinion.
Yep, I hate the Bronx Bombers. Yet, I love Mickey Mantle and Billy Martin. Go figure. Meanwhile, I really like Joe Mauer and whatever Gardy is doing in the Twin Cities. Can I pick against the Evil Empire? Sure can. More on that later.

Just Some of the Facts M'am.
I already touched on the Yanks' decision to skip AJ Burnett in the ALDS which probably isn't the worst idea. Instead the Yanks will trot out CC Sabathia on short rest for game 4 if necessary and let Phil Hughes take the mound for game 3. Sabathia was 21-7 with a 3.18/3.54/3.78 pitching line. 21 wins? Give that man the Cy Young The Twins will counter with Francisco Liriano and his 3.62/2.66/3.06 and 6 WAR. So Liriano was just about 1 win better than Sabathia this season. That my friends, is huge. But will Liriano get any Cy love with his pedestrian 14 wins and bloated 3.62 ERA? No sir but don't let that fool you. He is a true ace.

Capt'n Jetes hit .270/.340/.370 and saw his wOBA fall .70 points from last season. And according to Fangraphs' WAR, this was Jeter's worst season EVER unless you want to count his 51 plate appearances in 1995. But at least he'll only re-sign next season for around 4 more years and $80 million. Joe Mauer had a disappointing season of his own, hitting .327/.402/.469. Slacker. The Twins had to shut Justin Morneau down for the season after a concussion turned out to be the only thing that could slow him down. In 348 plate appearances, Morneau hit 18 home runs and .345/.437/.618. That is half of an MVP season.

Prediction.
My utter disdain for the Yankees prevents me from ever picking them despite my desire to be right. Do I feel good picking a team that is starting Carl Pavano in game 2? Nope, sure don't but here it goes anyway. Twins in 5.

The One Where I Gush About Buster Posey

It's no secret that we play favorites over here at Off Base and Buster Posey is easily one of our favorites. Derwood was turned on to Posey back when he was playing high school baseball in Georgia. I can't easily explain my fascination with him except he's really good at the baseball. He's so good in fact, I'm willing to overlook that his real first name is Gerald. Shame on you Posey parents, Gerald is a 60-year-old's name. The hot hitting catcher is on his way to taking the Giants to the playoffs whether the rest of the offense likes it or not. We'll have a vote for the BBA's regular season awards and, spoiler, our top pick will be Posey. The National League is loaded with potential superstar rookies but here's why we love San Fran's catcher...

1. He plays a premium position. Go look up how many franchise clean-up hitters were catchers. Go ahead, I'll wait. Also, I'm too lazy to do that research on my own. But I assume there aren't that many and Posey certainly looks like he's heading in the right direction.

2. Posey is hitting .323/.370/.524 with 16 home runs and gets very little help from the rest of his lineup as a 23-year-old. His main competition for NL ROY is Jason Heyward who, in 177 more plate appearances, is hitting .285/.400/.472 with 2 more homers while playing right field. That's basically a month worth of more service time. More on that later. Heyward probably deserves a little extra credit though because he's putting that line together as a 20-year-old.

3. Buster was temporarily and ludicrously blocked at catcher by Bengie Molina. The Giants eventually jettisoned Molina to clear the way for Posey behind the dish. I'd love to tell you that all of his receiving skills were vastly underrated but UZR doesn't work for catchers and I'm no scout. But it doesn't seem like the Giants will have to move him off of his position and he can't be any worse than Mike Piazza was, right?

4. What say you, nerdy stats? Heyward is out WAR-ing Posey 4.6-3.9 but, again, WAR is a counting stat so Heyward's extra playing time certain gives him a boost. Then there's the defense issue. UZR rates Heyward as an average right fielder while Posey takes a little hit from UZR for the time he played first base. So far, Posey appears to doing just fine in the catching categories that Fangraphs uses for WAR. Heyward is beating out Posey in wOBA too but just barely at .384 to .378. They're BABIPs are a wash, Posey .339 and Heyward .343. They're even deadlocked with 136 OPS+.

It's really close and both are going to be superstars along with Mike Stanton who might hit 40 home runs next year. There's plenty of time left to decide the ROY and both Posey and Hewyard are still in playoff races. I'm not sure how this evolved into a ROY post but at least all I'll have to do for my official ROY post is change around a few numbers. You're welcome, future me.

Weekly Cup Of Joe: Tim Raines Edition

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

I took the last couple of weeks of from Joe Morgan's chats over at the Four Letter because I was afraid of all the brain damage. But it's Tuesday and I'm a masochist so I strapped on my special helmet and dove into this week's Joe Chat. Instead of just blasting away at some nonsensical answer, I'm actually using this question and answer for a jumping off point for something I was planning on writing anyway. Let's grab that nugget of wisdom...

Tito (Brooklyn)

What do you think is more important from the leadoff hitter in a batting lineup: speed or OBP?

Joe Morgan (11:25 AM)

A perfect leadoff hitter does both. You want guys to get on base. There were a lot of guys who hit first and got on base but didn't have speed. Wade Boggs comes to mind. He got on base a lot and gave his team a chance to score runs. Now if a guy gets on base and has speed, he can help the team score runs by himself. If he doesn't have speed, then you can still get on base and help the team score runs within the team concept.

Joe Morgan (11:27 AM)

The perfect blend is getting on base with speed and Rickey Henderson comes to mind with that. But as we both know Rickey and Boggs are both in the hall of fame.

Rickey Henderson comes to mind, huh Joe? Well Rickey is the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of baseball with a career .401 OBP and the all time steals record of 1406 (second is Lou Brock with 938). Henderson was the prototype for leadoff hitters, the perfect combo. Somewhere along the line, managers fell too in love with the speed and now Ozzie Guillen has no problem leading off with Juan Pierre and his .348 career OBP. Sure speed at the top of the order is nice but getting on base is, well, the most important part of baseball from the hitter aspect. Or not making an out but now we're just arguing semantics. Rickey got on base 40 percent of the time. Then with the combination of his speed and forcing the pitcher to throw from the stretch, he gave the rest of his lineup the advantage. Which leads me to the next best leadoff hitter.

Why isn't Tim Raines a first ballot Hall of Famer? No, really, I'm asking. By the way, my love for Raines has nothing to do with my recent affair with the Expos that started here and continued here with their draft history and will end in the not foreseeable future. Okay, maybe that has a little something to do with it but it's mainly stat based love. Raines is 5th all time in stolen bases with 808 and sports a career .294/.385/.425 line. He was overshadowed by Rickey but that's certainly no excuse for his lack of Hall of Fame votes.

Raines is tied with Ozzie Smith for the 82nd best career WAR of 64.60 according to Baseball-Reference. Now, I can't really get a grip on Raines' fielding because Fangraphs' Total Zone has him all over the place throughout his career and there aren't any UZR stats for him except for the brief 2002 stint with the Marlins. Either way, WAR puts him into the top 100 players of all time which should get him much more HOF love. Still not convinced? Go check out our friends at Raines30 who have put together Rock's Hall of Fame case better than I can.

I'm not sure what the argument is against Tim Raines. I don't even hear a big backlash against his drug use either. There's no stat based reason I can see. How about some more nerdy stats? Rickey's career wOBA .386, Rock's career wOBA .374. Raines has the advantage in batting average (.294-.279) and slugging (.425-.419) but trails in the all important leadoff categories of on base (.401-.385) and steals (1406-808). Rickey was clearly the prototype but if Raines wasn't built in his image then I don't know who was.

Reverse AL Cy Young Ballot

On Monday, I took an early look at my imaginary AL Cy Young ballot and I have to admit that it doesn't look that good after Lee and Weaver got rocked. There's still plenty of time for things to change and I'm afraid if CC Sabathia wins 20 some odd games he will undeservedly win.

Derwood recently told me that we tend to write more about players' failures than successes. While I was researching this post, I realized he might be on to something. Just four days after writing about the best pitchers in the American League, I really wanted to write about the worst. We can't help it. We're the baseball blog version of Nelson Muntz.

So this is how I'd vote if I had a ballot for worst pitcher in the AL. A reverse Cy Young, if you will. And I actually have no idea what any of their records are because wins and losses are useless for pitchers.

1. Brian Bannister
I feel bad for Banny but if it's any consolation the second worst pitcher in the AL isn't too far back. Bannister is one of the few players who actively studies sabermetrics. Unfortunately, there isn't a metric out there that makes him look like a good pitcher. I mean, he's better than you but you're not actually the picture of fitness. Instead of trying to construct your own KFC Skinwich, why don't you try doing a couple of situps? What was I talking about?

Banny's WAR is 0.0 making him essentially a replacement player. Which at $2.3 million, is way too much for the Royals to be paying him. He has the highest ERA in the AL at 5.95 while his 4.83 xFIP suggests he isn't as terrible as his ERA implies. Good old Yuni Betencourt sure does work wonders at short, huh? Banny's 1.60 K/BB ratio isn't doing him any favors either.

2. Wade Davis
Davis might not look like the second worst pitcher in the AL at first glance with a 4.45 ERA. But he has the second highest xFIP (4.98), second lowest WAR (0.1) and second lowest +WPA (8.72). His BABIP (2.80) is nearly 20 points lower than his lowest projection (2.99 from CHONE and DiPS) which means he's been bad and lucky this year. The 1.60 K/BB is at Brian Bannister levels of mediocrity.

3. Kyle Davies
Time to rejoice Royals fans, 2 of your player made it on my ballot. Davies has the highest xFIP (5.01) to go with his 5.22 ERA. His 3.08 BABIP and 1.41 K/BB are right in line with his projections. He is basically 1 win better than a replacement player.

4. Kevin Millwood
Millwood has the lowest WPA in the AL at -2.63 but that's because he is a horse and pitches more terrible innings than your average pitcher can. His 5.49 ERA is poor enough but his 4.60 xFIP is the best on the list. So is his 2.10 K/BB. The 0.08 WAR basically puts him in the same crappy boat as Kyle Davies with one little exception. Millwood is making roughly $13 million more than Davies. *shudders*

5. Scott Feldman
I tried to see if Feldman's hitter friendly home field hurt his numbers but his HR/9 and xFIP are both better in Arlington than on the road. Even his BABIP at home is higher than on the road suggesting he's been unlucky there too. He's sporting a 5.44 ERA and a 4.85 xFIP with a 1.66 K/BB. There are more players with a lower WAR than him (1.20) but this is my ballot.

Derwood is right. It does feel good to point out the shortcomings of others from behind the keyboard and on my couch. And by couch, I mean milk crate.

Felix Hernandez's Role In The AL Cy Young

With 7 weeks to go in the season, it's still a little early for award predicting. But Geoff Baker had to write something for The Seattle Times and I suppose I need to write something here. Baker believes Hernandez, despite his 8-10 record, can make a legitimate run because he's in the top 5 in Innings (1st), ERA (4th), Strikeouts (2nd) and Complete Games (2nd). Then Baker blows my mind talking about King Felix being in the top 5 of FIP and xFIP. Geoff Baker, you had me at FIP.

Felix Hernandez is having another great CY Young type season that I guess I didn't even really notice because he is a Mariner. So, I guess it's about time for me to take a quick look at my fictional Cy Young ballot. The ballot has been expanded to 5 spots from 3 spots for what might as well be called the Keith Law Law. For my imaginary ballot, I'll be ignoring wins (sorry Carl Pavano) because just stop it already.

1. Cliff Lee
Lee has been downright masterful with his command of the strike zone. His 15.22 K/BB ratio would not only shatter Brett Saberhagan's 11.00 ratio from 1994 but make Jered Weaver look like a jerk with his second best 4.44 this year. Lee (3.25) has the second best xFIP in the AL and has the most complete games in the league with 7. He also has the best WAR (6.0) and WPA (3.72) in the AL.

2. Felix Hernandez
After Lee, the rest of the best are a pretty tight group but King Felix is as deserving as any. The innings and strikeouts are impressive but Baker didn't mention that Hernandez is also tied for 5th in hits. His .294 BABIP suggests he hasn't really been unlucky in that area either. He's 4th in xFIP (3.36) but only .11 points off from Cliff Lee. He's also 3rd in WAR (4.8) and 4th in WPA (2.80) in the AL. The 10 or 11 wins he'll end up with will certainly hurt him though. It's unfortunate for him that your sister scores more every year than the Mariners.

3. Jered Weaver
Weaver is flying under the radar despite leading the AL in strikeouts. He was placed in the ace role for the Halos after Lackey departed and has certainly lived up to it. He's 5th in xFIP (3.38) and 2nd in K/BB (4.44). He's 5th in WAR (4.4) at Fangraphs or tied for 1st with Lee (4.7) at B-R. I should note that I use Fangraphs for most of my stats unless Baseball-Reference helps my argument better. He's also 2nd in WPA (3.34) in the AL. If he can get up to 15-16 wins from the 11 he's sitting at, he might have a good chance at running up Cliff Lee. Unless Pavano gets to 20 wins, then all bets are off.

4. Jon Lester
Lester has the most wins (13) on my ballot. His BB/9 ratio is up this year from his previous 2 years which is keeping him from being in the top 5 in K/BB but he is 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (165). He's 3rd in xFIP (3.26) just .01 away from Cliff Lee. Lester is 4th in WAR (4.6) and 3rd in WPA (3.24). Considering his wins and market, he'll probably end up finishing much higher than 4th.

5. Francisco Liriano
Liriano isn't close to the top 10 in innings pitched but he's been exceptional when he's throwing. Despite the fewer innings, he's still 4th in strikeouts (160). He leads the AL in both FIP (2.19) and xFIP (2.94). Liriano is 2nd in WAR (5.6)but only 11th in WPA (2.24). Liriano will probably only sniff the ballot if some of the new more sabermetrically inclined members get some AL Cy Young votes.

Weekly Cup Of Joe: Midway MVP Edition

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

It's Tuesday which means there was a Joe Chat over at the Four Letter. Joe Morgan's chats are like McDonald's food. It seems like a good idea at the time but after you're done with it you feel gross and need a nap. I actually read today's chat while eating McDonald's and I'm pretty sure I broke the space-time continuum. Let's grab a McNugget of wisdom while I try to pull myself together...

Matt (Plano,TX)

Who is your MVP for the AL and NL?

Joe Morgan (11:31 AM)

Too early to tell. I thought it was Cano for a while in the AL, but Cabrera and Hamilton are in the conversation now as well. I always feel like the MVP should come from a winning team, one that's in the pennant race. You always have to start with Pujols in the NL. He's the best player in the game and it's his award to lose. For a long period, David Wright was the leader, but he has cooled off. Andre Ethier was one of the top candidates for a while, and you have to mention Adrian Gonzalez because the Padres are winning, and he's the reason they're in first place. But it's still too early to tell.

Yeah, he's wrong but let's see why. Oh and you should probably buckle up, it's going to get nerdy.

MTD's NL MVP Leaders

1. Joey Votto 4.1 WAR, .424 wOBA
Votto has 22 home runs to go with his .307/.415/.573 slash line. He's having such an amazing season I'm willing to overlook his 0-2 on 2 pitches performance at the All Star Game.

2. David Wright 4.1 WAR, .393 wOBA
It feels like Wright is flying under the radar. He only has 15 homers and 15 steals to go with his .312/.387/.531 slash line and a 5.8 UZR/150. Nothing wrong with that and, somehow, he has his team in the NL East pennant race. Oliver Perez thinks that's preposterous as he injures himself rolling around in a pile of cash.

3. Matt Holliday 4.2 WAR, .395 wOBA
Pujols has a better wOBA (.412) but trails in WAR (3.6) and after a couple of stunning seasons at first base, he's having a rather poor year in the field (-2.2 UZR/150).

MTD's AL MVP Leaders

1. Justin Morneau 5.0 WAR, .447 wOBA
I wanted to put Josh Hamilton or Miggy Carbera first put the advanced stats slapped me on the back of the head and shook its fist at me. Did anyone else outside of Minnesota notice the sick stats Morneau was putting up? Hopefully he recovers from that concussion I gave him during a pick-up hockey game soon so I can complain when he doesn't win the MVP at the end of the year.

2. Josh Hamilton 4.8 WAR, .439 wOBA
Probably too far back in RBI to catch Cabrera but if Hamilton stays healthy, he could lead the American League in batting average, home runs and unwanted tattoos. A healthy Josh Hamilton is scary, especially since I'm an Angels fan.

3. Miguel Cabrera 3.8 WAR, .443 wOBA
Cabrera is second in home runs (25-24), third in batting average (.353-.340) and first in RBI (82-76). Miggy could make a serious run at the Triple Crown this summer. He's also the most likely to have had McDonald's this week. And yes, I'm proud of the way I brought that full circle.

Shot Of The Night

Shot Of The Night is Off Base Percentage's toast to a player who had an exceptionally good or bad night. There's always a reason to drink.

Last night's shot of the night was a Tiger Jack: 1/2 shot grenadine syrup, 2 shots Jack Daniel's® Tennessee whiskey, 1 shot triple sec, orange juice. Apparently, SotN's posting time is directly related to where I find my keys in the morning. Yesterday I posted this segment at 5-ish and my keys were in the bathroom. Today, we're up and at 'em before noon and my keys were merely on my bedroom floor by the door. If I ever miss a SotN, feel free to assume my keys were on the roof and I was in the hospital. Where were we? Oh yeah, the shot of the night was in honor of Miguel Cabrera.

Miggy went 3-6 with 2 homers and 3 RBI while the Tigers took an 8-6 loss to the Rangers in 14 innings. If I was a betting man (and I am, I think I bet on a Saved By The Bell movie being made last night, original cast), Miguel Cabrera would be my choice for 40+ home runs this season. In fact, Miggy might have a real shot at the Triple Crown which Derwood pointed out earlier. Cabrera now has 24 home runs and 82 RBI to go along with a .340/.418/.645 slash line. The scary part is that Cabrera is just 27-years-old and probably just reaching his peak years.

Honorable Mention: Albert Pujols
For a point of reference, let's take a look at Albert Pujols. Widely believed to be the best hitter in baseball, Pujols went 2-4 with a homer and 3 RBI last night. Pujols has 22 home runs and 67 RBI to go with a .310/.413/.578 slash line. Miguel Cabrera (3.8 WAR) is basically a younger Pujols (3.6 WAR) right now.

The Off Base ESPY Preview

Ah, the day after MLB's All Star Game. This is usually the slowest sports news day of the year but there has been plenty of action today. The Braves traded Yunel Escobar and Jo Jo Reyes to the Blue Jays for Alex Gonzalez and a couple of prospects. The Atlanta Hawks dealt Josh Childress to the Phoenix Suns in a sign-and-trade. And some soccer player named Theirry Henry, who I can only assume is well past his prime, signed with the New York Red Bulls. Look at me writing about non-vuvuzela soccer news. I'm well-rounded.

Alright you got me, it' still a pretty slow news day and there aren't even any baseball games to look forward to. But we do have the ESPYs in live fashion tonight. Hoozah. Actually, I'll admit I'm a little excited because the New Orleans Saints figure to clean up. Let's take a look at baseball's role in the award show...

Best MLB Player: Zach Greinke (KC), Derek Jeter (NYY), Tim Lincecum (SF), Joe Mauer (MN), Albert Pujols (STL)

The nominees are last year's AL and NL MVP and Cy Young winners and Derek Jeter. I don't plan on being shocked when Jeter wins it either. But I'm going to take a look at WAR just so we can see who was the most valuable.

1. Zach Greinke 9.4 WAR
2. Albert Pujols 8.7 WAR
3. Ben Zobrist 8.3 WAR
4. Justin Verlander 8.2 WAR
5. Tim Lincecum 8.2 WAR
6. Joe Mauer 8.0 WAR
7. Chase Utley 7.6 WAR
8. Derek Jeter 7.4 WAR

Greinke's season was simply spectacular but who are we kidding? A pitcher from Kansas City isn't winning Player of the Year in a fan voting competition. I figure Pujols will be Jeter's biggest competition while my sentimental favorite, Chase Utley, gets overlooked once again.

Best Team: Alabama football, Chicago Blackhawks, Connecticut women's basketball, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Saints, New York Yankees

Personally, I like hockey. I played for a long time. But I think it's adorable if they think they're winning anything but Best Hockey Player. I think the Yankees have a legit shot at winning here but the Saints are just about going to be the favorites for everything. Which is fine by me.

Best Male Athlete: Drew Brees (NFL), Kobe Bryant (NBA), LeBron James (NBA), Jimmie Johnson (Nascar), Albert Pujols (MLB)

Again, I'd be down right shocked if Brees doesn't walk away with this awards. The image of him holding his son after the Saints won the Super Bowl still chokes me up a little. Pujols might be able to finish second if Kobe and LeBron split the basketball vote. I will admit Jimmie Johnson had an amazing year turning left. Okay, I made that up. I have no idea what he did last year.

Best Game: Twins beat Tigers in extra innings (AL Central one-game tie-breaker), Canada edges USA in Olympic Hockey championship game in overtime, Duke gets past Butler in the NCAA championship

I think the baseball game has a great shot here. But Duke did win a championship with their game. I do know that Canada beating the USA in hockey has no shot. You should also know that I'm terrible at predicting anything involving sports and I make a pretty mean Philly cheese steak.

Best Coach/Manager: Geno Auriemma (Connecticut women's basketball), Joe Girardi (New York Yankees), Phil Jackson (Los Angeles Lakers), Mike Krzyzewski (Duke men's basketball), Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints), Nick Saban (Alabama football)

I assume Payton is the favorite here. I realize I'm a pretty big Saints homer but what he and Brees have done with this franchise is unreal. There isn't another franchise that means as much to its city as the Saints mean to New Orleans. So bringing a championship to New Orleans gets Payton and Brees immediate hero status. Sorry but that rant was inevitable. I'm surprised I lasted this long. In baseball, bad managers can cost teams more games than good managers can win games. The difference between good managers is negligible.

Best Breakthrough Athlete: Brittney Griner (Baylor women's basketball), Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans), Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals), John Wall (University of Kentucky basketball)

If Strasburg doesn't win this, I'm rooting for him to start firing 100 mph fastballs at Seth Meyers. The Strasburg hype machine has been on overdrive this summer and he's fresh on people's minds with the All Star debate. I wouldn't recognize Brittney Griner if she walked in wearing her jersey.

Castrol Edge Performance Under Pressure Award: Sidney Crosby in the Olympic hockey gold-medal game, Landon Donovan in U.S. soccer's win over Algeria in the World Cup, Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay, Stephen Strasburg in his MLB debut

Crosby probably had the most pressure on him to win the Gold for Canada in Canada. Donovan had the biggest USA moment. Strasburg had the most impressive performance. So Brett Favre will win. Strasburg's 7 inning, 14 strikeout and zero walk debut was pure dominance. He flashed his 100 mph fastball and mixed in a 91 mph change up. He kicked off Strasburg-Mania and sells out road stadiums like he's the Beatles.

Best Sports Movie: Big Fan; Invictus; The Blind Side; The Damned United; The Karate Kid

This has nothing to with baseball but I loved Big Fan. It was pretty dark but Patton Oswalt was tremendous. I'm sure The Blind Side will win but go watch Big Fan. Oh and The Karate Kid? Hahahahaha *cough* hahahahaha

Weekly Cup Of Joe: NL Center Field Edition

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

I can't even begin to describe what a joy it is to listen to Chris Berman and Joe Morgan call the Home Derby. The only thing that could make it any better is if they invite Ken Harrelson next year. Imagine Berman yelling "back, back, back, back" while Harrelson yells "You can put it on the booooard... YES!" Music to my ears. Painful, blood inducing music. It's Tuesday so there was a Joe Chat over a the Four Letter. Let's grab a nugget of wisdom and see if I can add any useful insight...

Tito (Brooklyn)

Joe, who do you think is the best overall CF in the NL?

Joe Morgan (11:22 AM)

Well, I guess the question would be defensively or offensively? CF in the NL, you have Shane Victorino is a good defensive OF. Matt Kemp as well. That's an interesting question, because I don't think there are a lot of great CFs in the NL. Those are two that are exceptional. Drew Stubbs has a chance to be a good CF.

Um actually Joe, the question was overall CF. Which I assume encompasses both offense and defense. A quick glance at WAR tells me Andres Torres (3.5), Marlon Byrd (3.5) and Angel Pagan (3.3) are all worth close to a win more than the rest of the National League center fielders. Victorino (1.7) is in the middle of the pack while Kemp (0.3) and Stubbs (0.8) are towards the bottom.

Maybe Joe was just talking about offensive center fielders. According to wOBA, Colby Rasmus (.390), Andres Torres (.383) and Carlos Gonzalez (.375) are the top guys. Victorino (.342), Kemp (.336) and Stubbs (.321) aren't particularly close.

Perhaps Joe was just talking about defensive center fielders. UZR/150 has Tony Gwynn (49.8) smoking the rest of the pack with Marlon Byrd (15.8) and Michael Bourn (13.2) having really good seasons. At the other end of the spectrum, Matt Kemp has a -29.9 UZR/150. I think that means somewhere around 14 balls have bounced off of his head for home runs. Victorino (-4.1) and Stubbs (-6.5) aren't exactly helping out their pitchers either.

Don't like advanced metrics? You really should look into that. Byrd (.317), Pagan (.315) and Gonzalez (.314) are the only center fielders with a batting average over .300. Vitcorino (.250) and Stubbs (.235) have the worst batting averages for center fielders and I'm starting to wonder why Stubbs is on my fantasy team. Kemp (.261) isn't exactly lighting the league on fire either.

Kemp is third in home runs and RBI for center fielders. That's all I have. I don't know where Joe came up with these answers. They may actually be the only center fielders he could think of.

I think this season the best center fielder in the National League is Marlon Byrd. But guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Colby Rasmus and Andrew McCutchen will probably be vying for that top spot sooner than later.

Our Required All Star Snubs Post

Derwood isn't a big fan of the All Star game or the Angels. So it makes perfect sense that he will be traveling to the Big A to watch the game this year while I sit at home and curse him under my breath. He also despises the All Star selection process but I find it fascinating and infuriating. So I'll be your guide through this Joey Votto/Jered Weaver fueled rant. Buckle up kids, it might get nerdy.

Joey Votto: This is the one everybody is up in arms over and it's deserved. All of Votto's counting stats are right there with Pujols. I know the players and especially Charlie Manuel aren't looking at advanced metrics but I sure am. In wOBA, Votto (.424) is crushing Pujols (.409) and more importantly Ryan Howard (.363). Don't like/understand wOBA? Everybody likes WAR and Votto (3.6) is still better than Pujols (3.1) and much better than Howard (1.2).

Votto is at least the best first baseman in the National League this season and deserves to be an All Star. But hey, Omar Infante and his 0.5 WAR might come in handy if you need a 5th short stop in the 14th inning. Actually, you'd probably be better off playing Votto at short stop and not even letting him take the field.

Jered Weaver: Obviously, this one bothered me the most. Weaver was asked to take over the ace role for the Angels and not only did he handle it, he has become one of the best pitchers in the league. Oh yeah, the All Star game is also in his home park.

As Keith Law pointed out yesterday, only 2 of the top 10 pitchers in WAR made the AL squad. But hey, if you look at FIP, 3 of the top 10 made it! Fine, don't like advanced metrics? Weaver leads the AL in strikeouts (124), 9th-ish in least walks (26), 6th in ERA (2.82) and his BABIP is a perfectly sustainable .299. I went a little nerdy there at the end, huh?

CC Sabathia: 1.9 WAR, 3.94 FIP, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks = All Star

Fransisco Liriano: I have him on my fantasy team and didn't realize how good of a season he's having. He leads the AL in WAR (4.2), FIP (2.10) and tied for 3rd in strikeouts (116). I might be crazy but I would rather have Liriano available to close a game than, oh say, Jose Valverde.

Kevin Youkilis: Shame on you Joe Girardi. Youk should be in there over A-Rod and especially over David Ortiz. Youkilis is easily one of the top 10 players in the AL if you look at any stat except for batting average (.299) but you have to get Jose Bautista (.236) in there.

Stephen Strasburg: I'm not calling him a snub so much as I have a problem with Evan Meek. Seriously, would you rather have Strasburg for an inning or Evan Meek. I'll save you the trouble of looking up which team Meek plays for, he's the Pirates lone rep. Simple solution: pull Corey Hart, plug in Andrew McCutchen, pull Meek and put in Strasburg. Everybody is a winner. Well, except for Meek and Hart.

Anybody but Omar Infante: *head explodes*

I could go on but I'd like to actually watch some baseball but I'll leave you with this...

Actual NL Lineup: C Yadier Molina, 1B Albert Pujols, 2B Chase Utley, 3B David Wright, SS Hanley Ramirez, OF Ryan Braun, OF Jason Heyward, Of Andre Ethier

WAR NL Lineup: C Brian McCann, 1B Joey Votto, 2B Chase Utley, 3B David Wright, SS Troy Tulowitzki, RF Andres Torres, CF Marlon Byrd, LF Matt Holliday

Actual AL Lineup: C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Evan Longoria, SS Derek Jeter, OF Ichiro, OF Josh Hamilton, OF Carl Crawford, DH Vlad Guerrero

WAR AL Lineup: C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Alex Gonzalez, RF Ichiro, CF Alex Rios, LF Carl Crawford, DH Vlad Guerrero