2013 Team Awards: Philadelphia Phillies

In order to review the 2013 season, the crackpot staff of Off Base is handing out awards to each Major League team. Please send us $19.95 for the shipping and handling of your team's Hello Kitty stickers awards. Here are the Most Valuable Player, Least Valuable Player, Cy Young, Cy Yuck, Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year for the Philadelphia Phillies. 

*Guidelines, prices and participation may vary by author*

MVP: Cliff Lee

There is snow in the forecast, so of course I am writing about a team where a pitcher was it's most valuable player. I wanted to write Chase Utley's name in here along with his 3.9 fWAR and 126 wRC+, but I just couldn't do it. I do get a bonus though whenever I mention Chase Utley in a blog post though. So, Chase Utley Chase Utley Chase Utley Chase Utley. There, that should earn me some brownie points with MTD, maybe even actual brownies. 

Aside from the Utley-love that resonates around these parts, it was Cliff Lee that was the driving force for the underwhelming Phillies in 2013. His 5.1 fWAR led the team, and I personally have never seen a pitcher who's ERA, FIP and xFIP (2.87, 2.82, 2.78) were so close together. Lee may very well be the perfect pitcher, unfortunately, his 14-8 record isn't going to get much love with the BBWAA crowd. Don't worry, Cliff, you're still loved by those who pay attention (And those who are suckers for smooth lefties).

[Ed: If you'd like to argue Albert Pujols should have won the MVP in 2006 or 2007, we don't have to have a problem. But if you wanted to give a Phillie the MVP in 2006 or 2007 and chose Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins over Chase Utley, then I'm blocking you, reporting you as spam and turning you over to the NSA]

Cliff Lee's All Time Competition From Ages 32-36

It didn't escape me in my posting absence that Cliff Lee spurned the Rangers and Yankees to re-join the Phillies on a 5-year, $120 million deal. But by now, you've all heard every opinion possible about the matter. Jeez, Craig Calcaterra's crew at Hardball Talk wrote 16 posts about him in 18 hours. Instead of figuring out Texas' and New York's contingency plans or why the Angels are sitting on their hands, I wanted to take a look at what the Phillies hope they're getting over the next five years in a pitcher who will start his contract as a 32-year-old.

My research might not stand up to some of those who practice the Sabr science for a profession but I think it's a good once over for someone losing roughly $1.49 every month on this site. Also, Fangraphs WAR doesn't go past 1980 in the history annals so I'm using the similarly awesome stats from Baseball-Reference. Obviously, I didn't include pitchers from the deadball era because none of them lived to be 32.[citation needed]

1. Bob Gibson
Years: 1968-1972 WAR: 43.9 ERA: 2.35 ERA+: 150
The HOF Cardinal pitcher had an unbelievable five year stretch after he turned 32. His top WAR seasons were in 1968 (11.9), 1969 (11.0), 1970 (8.7) and 1972 (7.6). Nobody can be expecting Cliff Lee to touch these numbers but it could be possible Lee is hitting his peak on the typical wrong side of 30.

2. Randy Johnson
Years: 1997-2001 WAR: 37.4 ERA: 2.64 ERA+: 174
Technically, I'm cheating here. Johnson's first season that he started as a 32-year-old was 1996 but he only tossed 61.1 innings. If I swap out Johnson's 2002 season for his 1996 season, he ends up with a 30.2 WAR which would still be tied for second place. While I have no reason to expect Lee to be healthy for his 32-year-old season or even his 37-year-old season, it's always nice to appreciate how good The Big Unit was after he turned 30 or 32 or 37 or 42. His 91.8 career WAR should be a first class ticket to the Hall of Fame even if Bert Blyleven is still flying standby with his 90.1 WAR.

3. Roger Clemens
Years: 1995-1999 WAR: 30.2 ERA: 3.27 ERA+: 145
Clemens rollercoasted his single seasons WARs over a 24-year career accumulating an insane 128.4 of them. It's hard to predict how his alleged performance enhancing or sleeping with under aged country music stars will affect his Hall of Fame candidacy but the numbers should put him in by a landslide. These are all probably topics for another post but the Phils would be thrilled with that kind of performance over Lee's contract even if some indiscretions involving Taylor Swift popped up years from now.

4. Warren Spahn
Years: 1953-1957 WAR: 30.1 ERA: 2.79 ERA+: 132
I included the "liveball" wins leader because, well, he's the liveball wins leader. His 101 complete games is the closest to rivaling Gibson's 122 over the 32-36 year-old age bracket but Spahn posted a 1.80 K/BB ratio over that period and Cliff Lee might be able to top it with his eyes closed.

5. Kevin Brown
Years: 1997-2001 WAR: 30.0 ERA: 2.66 ERA+: 155
Brown had an even better 5-year streak that began just a year earlier in 1996 and ended with his 6.5 WAR as a 35-year-old. His 64.8 WAR makes him an interesting case for the Hall of Fame even though he only finished in the top three of Cy Young voting twice (both in his 32-36 range) during his 19 seasons while never winning it. Lee has already won one but will have to duel with a teammate for any future award. Either way, the Phillies would be more than happy to boast two or three of the National League's best pitchers in the upcoming seasons.

6. Phil Niekro
Years: 1971-1975 WAR: 30.0 ERA: 2.97 ERA+: 128
I could have left the list at a reasonable five but I felt like I'd be letting Rob Neyer down if I didn't include a knuckleballer on the list. And I wish I had a better reason than that because Niekro's 2.17 K/BB was only better than Spahn's aforementioned 1.90 ratio. Am I secretly hoping Lee starts throwing a knuckleball? Perhaps. Are the Phillies? Not so much.

7. David Cone
Years: 1995-1999 WAR: 23.8 ERA: 3.32 ERA+: 139
Mmmhmm. Which brings us to...

8. Greg Maddux
Years: 1998-2002 WAR: 23.7 ERA: 2.88 ERA+: 152
Welcome to the confusing stat portion of our program. Maddux had the third best ERA+ of this bunch and second best K/BB ratio (4.16) to Johnson's (4.48) but doesn't have the shiny WAR of his colleagues. Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) has him at 31.1 which, I assume, does a better job of evaluating his "Gold Glove" defense using UZR instead of Total Zone. Take a deep breath, don't let all of that nerdiness get to your head at once. However you look at Maddux's performance from 32 to 36, the Phillies would not regret their payroll splurge. But don't be surprised if a cheesesteak will run you around $33 inside the stadium, it's player number integration pricing!

The Math
It might be presumptuous to compare Cliff Lee to some of the greatest pitchers in baseball history but there is a case to be made that Lee could be great into his mid-thirties. Baseball-Reference has Lee as about a 5.5 WAR player per year over the past three seasons. Fangraphs has him as almost a 7 WAR player per season over that time. Let's say Lee ends up being a 6 WAR player over his Philly contract. If a player on the free market is worth $6 million per point of WAR, that would make Lee worth $180 million over five years instead of the $120 Philadelphia is paying him (and that's without inflation!).

Assuming Lee stays healthy over the next five years is a big leap of faith. But he will be playing with Doc Halladay who is two years into a pace that would make him the second greatest pitcher between the ages of 32 and 36. Doc might have some staying healthy secrets he can share. Or he's just some kind of freak of nature. Either way, I'm betting Lee stays healthy enough to make this contract look like a relative steal for the Phillies. Note: I'm a big sucker for WAR and terrible at gambling, actual results may vary.

Felix Wins By A Wide Margin Then Back To Normal

Felix Hernandez won his first Cy Young running away, receiving 21 of the 28 first place votes. King Felix was a horse pitching 249.2 innings while leading the American League with a 2.27 ERA. He was second in complete games (6) and strikeouts (232). And for those of us practicing nerdism, Felix was fourth in the league with a 3.04 FIP and third with a 6.2 WAR. The debate was whether he could take home the award with a 13-12 record against the likes of CC Sabathia (21 wins, 3.18 ERA), David Price (19 wins, 2.72 ERA) and Jon Lester (19 wins, 3.25 ERA).

The voters got it right and the BBWAA has done a solid job overall during this award season. Price, in a mild surprise, finished second receiving four first place votes over Sabathia and his three first place votes. Jon Lester placed fourth with Jered Weaver finishing a distant fifth. The win totals after Felix's 13 went back to the normal 19, 21, 19 and another 13. But Weaver did lead the league in strikeouts and had a 3.01 ERA. I'm surprised Justin Verlander's 18 wins didn't get him more than one fifth place vote.

In my ballot for the BBA, I had a coin flip between Felix and Cliff Lee for first and ended up settling with Felix for the top spot. Lee just managed one third place vote, one fourth and one fifth. Lee only won 12 games but he did pitch more innings than Price and Lester. I know the voting is getting better as far as looking at statistics past wins and ERA so I might be getting a little ahead of myself. However, Lee led the AL with a 2.58 FIP and 7.1 WAR. The reason I gave Lee more love than anyone else I've seen was his strikeout to walk ratio. Lee finished with a ridiculous 10.28 K/BB rate. Jered Weaver was second best with his 4.31 ratio.

Perhaps I'm a bit cynical even though the voters chose the best pitcher in the AL for the Cy. There was a big groundswell for Felix Hernandez by the stat guys and all of us writing from our moms' basements toward the end of the season. The main stream media had to take notice of our deifying of Felix this year. I suspect that's why he won by such a large margin. If the voters were really looking at advanced metrics now, wouldn't Cliff Lee have received more support? It's just a thought. Even the great Joe Sheehan admitted it was a tough year to sort out via Twitter...

@MnkysThrwngDrts I had him #5 (Lee). The AL Cy pool was a mess, seven or eight guys with cases, metrics pointing all over the place.

Fair enough. But Francisco Liriano was second in FIP (2.66) and fourth in WAR (6.0) and he received one fifth place vote. The aforementioned 18-game winner Justin Verlander finished third in FIP (2.97) and second in WAR (6.3) while being rewarded with a single fifth place vote. It just makes me wonder if Felix won due to the overwhelming hype surrounding him rather than the voters actually warming up to advanced metrics.

Felix Hernandez's Role In The AL Cy Young

With 7 weeks to go in the season, it's still a little early for award predicting. But Geoff Baker had to write something for The Seattle Times and I suppose I need to write something here. Baker believes Hernandez, despite his 8-10 record, can make a legitimate run because he's in the top 5 in Innings (1st), ERA (4th), Strikeouts (2nd) and Complete Games (2nd). Then Baker blows my mind talking about King Felix being in the top 5 of FIP and xFIP. Geoff Baker, you had me at FIP.

Felix Hernandez is having another great CY Young type season that I guess I didn't even really notice because he is a Mariner. So, I guess it's about time for me to take a quick look at my fictional Cy Young ballot. The ballot has been expanded to 5 spots from 3 spots for what might as well be called the Keith Law Law. For my imaginary ballot, I'll be ignoring wins (sorry Carl Pavano) because just stop it already.

1. Cliff Lee
Lee has been downright masterful with his command of the strike zone. His 15.22 K/BB ratio would not only shatter Brett Saberhagan's 11.00 ratio from 1994 but make Jered Weaver look like a jerk with his second best 4.44 this year. Lee (3.25) has the second best xFIP in the AL and has the most complete games in the league with 7. He also has the best WAR (6.0) and WPA (3.72) in the AL.

2. Felix Hernandez
After Lee, the rest of the best are a pretty tight group but King Felix is as deserving as any. The innings and strikeouts are impressive but Baker didn't mention that Hernandez is also tied for 5th in hits. His .294 BABIP suggests he hasn't really been unlucky in that area either. He's 4th in xFIP (3.36) but only .11 points off from Cliff Lee. He's also 3rd in WAR (4.8) and 4th in WPA (2.80) in the AL. The 10 or 11 wins he'll end up with will certainly hurt him though. It's unfortunate for him that your sister scores more every year than the Mariners.

3. Jered Weaver
Weaver is flying under the radar despite leading the AL in strikeouts. He was placed in the ace role for the Halos after Lackey departed and has certainly lived up to it. He's 5th in xFIP (3.38) and 2nd in K/BB (4.44). He's 5th in WAR (4.4) at Fangraphs or tied for 1st with Lee (4.7) at B-R. I should note that I use Fangraphs for most of my stats unless Baseball-Reference helps my argument better. He's also 2nd in WPA (3.34) in the AL. If he can get up to 15-16 wins from the 11 he's sitting at, he might have a good chance at running up Cliff Lee. Unless Pavano gets to 20 wins, then all bets are off.

4. Jon Lester
Lester has the most wins (13) on my ballot. His BB/9 ratio is up this year from his previous 2 years which is keeping him from being in the top 5 in K/BB but he is 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (165). He's 3rd in xFIP (3.26) just .01 away from Cliff Lee. Lester is 4th in WAR (4.6) and 3rd in WPA (3.24). Considering his wins and market, he'll probably end up finishing much higher than 4th.

5. Francisco Liriano
Liriano isn't close to the top 10 in innings pitched but he's been exceptional when he's throwing. Despite the fewer innings, he's still 4th in strikeouts (160). He leads the AL in both FIP (2.19) and xFIP (2.94). Liriano is 2nd in WAR (5.6)but only 11th in WPA (2.24). Liriano will probably only sniff the ballot if some of the new more sabermetrically inclined members get some AL Cy Young votes.

Curveballs for Jobu

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Marcus Lawton but he won't be spending much more time here than he did in the majors.

Jobu is late again which either means it's taking birth control tips from your sister or I'm in charge while Derwood is out collecting butterflies or whatever he does on the weekends. Let's take a quick spin around yesterday's games while I get fired up to watch Anderson Silva destroy Chael Sonnen tonight...

Angels 4, Tigers 2. The Angels snapped their losing streak now that they're done with AL East powerhouse Baltimore Orioles (more on them later). Torii Hunter smacked a 2-run home run in the 1st off Justin Verlander and got ejected in the 8th for arguing balls and strikes. It didn't take Mike Scioscia long to also get tossed. Jered Weaver struck out 9 to increase his AL lead to 15 over Francisco Liriano.

Orioles 2, White Sox 1 (10). The Buck Showalter express keeps rolling right along. The deadly trio of Brad Bergesen, Koji Uehara and Alfredo Simon held the Sox to 1-run on 8-hits. 2010 White Sox draftee Chris Sale pitched 0.0 innings allowing a hit and a walk running his ERA to ### according to ESPN.

Rangers 5, A's 1. Cliff Lee only pitched 8 innings giving up 1 run while striking out 8 and walking none. Lee now has an insane 14.00 K/BB ratio furthering Derwood's theory that Lee is actually a robot. Remember when he was sent to the minors in 2007? That's when they turned him into a robot. That's the theory we're kicking around the office anyway. I'll admit it's not very good.

Diamondbacks 2, Padres 1. Dan Hudson is trying his best to make Kenny Williams look foolish. The former White Sox prospect pitched 7.2 innings of 3-hit ball allowing only one run on a Will Venable solo shot. Jordan Norberto pitched a clean 0.1 inning to lower his ERA to 9.00.

Curveballs for Jobu

Curveballs for Jobu is Off Base Percentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Jim Vatcher. He's here to remind you that the Braves traded Dale Murphy.

Curveballs for Jobu thought about playing hooky today but I caught it smoking cigarettes behind a dumpster and made it come in to work. I'm at the helm today because Derwood doesn't have the Internet. He moved into a neighborhood that AT&T only offers dial-up. Which, I assume, means he moved to some jungle community in South America.

Rangers 3, A's 1. Cliff Lee threw another 9 inning, no decision game for the second time in three starts. He struck out 13 while shockingly not walking a batter. His strikeout to walk ratio is now a silly 16.29. Nelson Cruz hit a walk-off 2-run home run in the 10th to improve my fantasy team's playoff hopes while dashing the Angels' playoff hopes.

Twins 11, Royals 2. Blog enemy Carl Pavano just keeps on winning. He went 5 innings but he only surrendered 1 one and ran his record to 13-6 and is tied for the AL lead in wins. I may have to get Derwood sedated when Pavano receives CY Young votes this year. Bruce Chen only need 113 pitches to give up 11 hits, 6 runs and 3 walks in one of his more impressive outings. Wilson Betemit: 1-4.

Nationals 3, Braves 0. Stephen Strasburg was scratched before the game but I'm pretty sure he still struck out 5. Miguel Batista is apparently still playing pro ball and got the start in Strasburg's place. He combined with Sean Burnett, Drew Storen and Matt Capps to blank the Braves.

Mets 8, Cardinals 2. Adam Wainwright got lit up to the tune of 6 runs over 5 innings and his ERA ballooned to 2.23. Jeff Francoeur homered and only saw 9 pitches in his 4 plate appearances. Francoeur was in a hurry because he was trying to get home in time for the new episode of Louie. Can't say I blame him either.