Curveballs for Jobu 5/31/11

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Paul Spoljaric.

Blue Jays 11, Indians 1.
Our long national (international?) nightmare is over after Jo Jo Reyes snapped his 28 start non-winning streak that spanned nearly 3 years. Reyes got the win by pitching a complete game and allowing just a run. Jose Bautista went 2-3 with a walk to get his OBP back over .500 for the season. The Indians have lost 5 of 6 and I think it's safe to declare the sky is falling.

Yankees 5, A's 0.
I'm sold. Shoot me up with some stem cells. Even though it was the dismal A's offense, Bartolo Colon threw a 4-hit, complete game shutout while striking out 6 and walking none. Colon has a 3.26/3.35/2.91 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line as a 38-year-old. *googles shady doctors in my area*

Angels 10, Royals 8.
Ervin Santana got off to a rough start but the Angels bats were able to bail him out. Santana's first 6 pitches went for a leadoff home rum, four pitch walk and a 2-run home run. But the Angels managed to battle back to overcome a 5 run deficit with home runs by Mark Trumbo and Peter Bourjos in the 8th and took the lead with a 2-run homer by Torii Hunter in the 9th. It was Hunter's second of the game and his 1,000 career RBI. Royals struggling closer Joakim Soria lost his job to Aaron Crow after blowing the save. This, kids, is why you don't change your nickname if it's something badass like the Mexicutioner.

Diamondbacks 15, Marlins 4.
Arizona mashed their way to 7 straight wins on the backs of Justin Upton (5-5, 2B, HR) and Kelly Johnson (4-7, 2B, 3B, 2 HR). Willie Bloomquist, Sean Burroughs and Xavier Nady also had plate appearances.

Reds 7, Brewers 3.
Jay Bruce just keeps crushing everything. Bruce went 3-4 with a triple and home run. He leads the National League in 2 of the 3 Triple Crown categories but I wouldn't hold my breath on him making up that 50 points of batting average he's down.

Phillies 5, Nationals 4.
Roy Halladay surrendered 10 hits including 3 home runs but he and the Phils both survived the un-Doc outing with a win. Chase Utley went 0-3 with 2 walks. I sense a hot streak right around the corner. Livan Hernandez tossed his automatic 6+ innings giving up 8 hits and 4 runs. You can pencil that in for almost every start.

Other games, but down here...
Tigers 6, Twins 5.
Mariners 4, Orioles 3.
Rangers 11, Rays 5.
White Sox 7, Red Sox 3.
Padres 3, Braves (10).
Astros 12, Cubs 7.
Giants 7, Cardinals 3.
Mets 7, Pirates 3.
Dodgers 7, Rockies 1.

The Sky Is Falling: Luis Castillo

The Mets finally cut ties with one of Omar Minaya's ill fated contract extension recipients in Luis Castillo and it appears that he is being snatched up by the Phillies. The Mets will pay Castillo the final $6 million they still owe him to go play for a division rival. Hardball Talk breaks it down...

He’s a shell of the player Omar Minaya traded for and then signed to a four-year, $25 million deal and the deterioration of Castillo’s once-excellent speed has magnified his career-long lack of power, but last season he drew more walks (39) than strikeouts (25) while posting a .337 on-base percentage that was solidly above the NL average of .328 and got on base at a .366 clip during his entire four-year run with the Mets.

Castillo's value is entirely based on his ability to get on base at a decent clip but his days of OBP-ing over .400 are over a decade old now.

The signing makes sense for the Phillies since it won't cost them much and fills a now glaring need for depth in the infield. My initial thought, of course, is "OH MY GOD Chase Utley IS DEAD!" The speculation about Utley missing the entire season already had me pretty anxious but now I'm in full blown "refilling my xanax prescription" panic attack mode.

I'm not a Phillies fan so the fear of having to replace a projected 4.8 WAR player with a basic replacement level player doesn't bother me so much. But as one of Utley's better known stalkers, I'm quite worried. Apparently my get well basket of HGH infused muffins didn't do the trick.

The Sky Is Falling: Chase Utley

I think it has become fairly well documented across the Interwebs that I am a bit of a Chase Utley supporter, even though I think some of the language in the restraining order paints an unfair picture of me. So imagine the immediate dismay that washed over me when I heard the Phillies' second baseman was already experiencing tendinitis in his knee. Utley, the consummate professional, believes this is just a minor blip...

Utley said yesterday that surgery has not even been discussed as an option. In fact, Utley said, he has played through worse pain during his career. If the Phillies were in the middle of the regular season instead of at the beginning of the Grapefruit League slate, he said he would be in the lineup.

"I hope it's just a minor blip," Utley said. "I think we have the right people checking it out. I think the work ethic is going to be there in terms of trying to improve it. So in that aspect I think it's all good."

Utley was derailed from another potential 7 WAR season in 2010 when thumb surgery wiped out his July and half of August. With any luck, rest and rehab will take care of this bout with tendinitis and Utley will have a healthy 2011. I'm not sure I'm emotionally stable enough to survive an injury plagued season or, god forbid, the beginning of the steep second baseman decline. Luckily, Dave Cameron doesn't seem to think Utley will fall to the same fate as Roberto Alomar or Ryne Sandberg.

PECOTA projects a healthy Utley to be the best second baseman in baseball for 2011 and worth over a full win more than Robinson Cano (4.7-3.4). But 40 points of OBP and a run's worth of defense will do that. Even with a clean bill of health, my championing of an Utley MVP seems almost futile now.

As much as it pains me to say, it might be time to turn my lack-of-MVP-consideration fascination to Ryan Zimmerman.

The Sky Fell: Stephen Strasburg Edition

It was fun while it lasted. The Washington Nationals ruined my morning by announcing The Phenom Stephen Strasburg has a "significant tear" in his ulnar collateral ligament which will likely send him to Doc Andrews for Tommy John surgery. This is easily the most disappointing news to come out of Washington D.C. since some political reference. I'm too distraught to even come up with a decent joke. Strasburg-Mania is likely to be shelved for 12-18 months after surgery and rehab. The good news is that he's still just 22-years-old and most pitchers come back almost as strong post TJ.

The bad news is the time that it takes to recover and return to effectiveness. Jordan Zimmermann made his first start last night for the Nats after a 399 day layoff from his Tommy John surgery. It wasn't pretty. He lasted 4 innings and surrendered 5 earned runs on 7 hits. Francisco Liriano had the surgery after the 2006 season and is just now returning to a resemblance of his former effectiveness. Josh Johnson might be the best case scenario for bandwagon jumping Nationals fans such as myself. Johnson went under the knife in August 2007 and returned to the mound in a speedy 11 months. In 47 starts between 2008-2009, he posted a 3.34 ERA and a 3.15 strikeout to walk ratio. This year, Johnson is having his best season with a 2.36 ERA which is right inline with his 2.53 FIP and he should contend for the NL Cy Young.

So is it reasonable to think Strasburg could be contending for the NL Cy Young by 2013 as a 25-year-old? I'd probably take that bet. His pure stuff is so devastating that if he only returns to live at 97 mph instead of 99, he will still make hitters looks foolish with his change up. But 2013 ain't next year and this is severely going to hurt his chase for Cy Young's win record and Nolan Ryan's strikeout record. I normally wouldn't care about such unlikely things except I'm such an impetuous gambler. My grandpa isn't going to be happy to learn I bet his house on Strasburg striking out 400 next season. Sure, I might have been caught up in the hype but I hedged my bet by taking the over 80 on Bryce Harper home runs next season. I'm not a fool.

The Sky Is Falling: Stephen Strasburg

It looks like freshman phenom/future Hall of Famer, Stephen Strasburg, will be headed to the disabled list for the second time this season. Yet, that collective exhale of breath you felt earlier did come from Washington D.C. Strasburg left Saturday's game in the 5th inning after grimacing from an apparent arm injury. Early half-glass-emptiers suspected Strasburg may have torn a tendon which would result in surgery and a year layoff. From my quick math, that would be the equivalent to the strike-shortened 1994 season for the Montreal Expos. Almost certain financial doom, years in last place and eventual relocation to some crime laden southern city, let's say Virginia Beach.

But fortunately for the "fans" who sell out Nationals Park only when Strasburg pitches, the kid's tendon didn't fall out of his arm...

Strasburg strained a tendon in his right forearm over the weekend, and Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said Monday the team would "proceed with caution" with the prized pitcher.

If by "proceed with caution" you mean shut him down for the year, I completely agree with this decision. Sure the Expos Nats will lose some pretty good revenue from the one or two more home starts he could make this season but Strasburg has already thrown more innings than he did last year. Unless Dusty Baker is consulting on pitcher usage, it's time to shut the kid down and build toward next season.

The Sky is Falling
A second DL stint for the 22-year-old can't be exciting news. I'm no scout but I haven't heard or seen anything about a hitch in his mechanics that suggests a proneness to injuries. Hopefully it's just some randomness even though he said he pitched through a similar injury in college. As a hopeful new Nationals fan, I'm hoping he shrugs this off and cruises past Cy Young's win record and Nolan Ryan's strikeout record in the next, um, 30 or so years of world dominance. As a glass-half-empty guy (what?, I'm thirsty), I'm afraid of a Ben McDonald/Mark Prior fall from relevance.

Let's all hope for the best because he's good for baseball. 92 strikeouts in 68 innings as a rookie is exciting stuff. I should know, I struck out 68 hitters over 3 months in the summer of 1991. I threw a devastating Wiffle Ball slurve.

[awesome drawing from Francis Hogan via Fedral Baseball]

The Sky Is Falling: Strasburg Edition

There is panic in the streets of Washington tonight. Mass hysteria of epic proportions. I'm actually writing this from under my school desk after I duct taped sheets of plastic to all of my windows. Stephen Strasburg was scratched from his start tonight against the Braves. Prior to the game, Strasburg had trouble getting loose. He didn't feel any pain but that was enough for GM Mike Rizzo to pull the plug on Strasburg's 10th start...

"I pulled the plug on it," Rizzo said. "Precautionary move. Erring on the side of caution, I just didn't want him to go out there when he was struggling to get loose in the bullpen pregame."

snip

"He did understand," Rizzo said. "Those are the decisions I get paid to make. We're going to err on the side of caution. I'll make the decisions and take the heat for it. He's a very competitive person. The decision was made by me, and he's fine."

Strasburg will have X-Rays and MRIs and possibly the scientists who invented him take a look at the pitching phenom.