I Looked at the 2001 NL ROY Voting for a While Today

The 2001 NL Rookie of the Year voting will be remembered for....wait, do people remember rookie of the year voting?

Let me start over.

Some people voted for the top five rookies in the National League in 2001 and Albert Pujols won unanimously after putting together one of the most ridiculous rookie seasons ever-.329/.403/.610, 37 HR, 6.9 WAR. Pujols has gone on to a certain Hall of Fame career, and three of the four players who finished behind him in the voting-Roy Oswalt, Jimmy Rollins and Adam Dunn-have put together really good careers themselves. Also, Bud Smith received votes.

Here's a look at the top five.


1st - Pujols

Not much else needs to be said about the St. Louis first baseman, so I'll pick something at random. At baseballreference.com they have the following players as the top seven 'similar to Pujols through age 30':

Jimmie Foxx
Frank Robinson
Ken Griffey Jr.
Lou Gehrig
Hank Aaron
Mickey Mantle
Mel Ott

Talk about associating yourself with a bunch of losers.

2nd - Oswalt

The former Astro has been one of the better pitchers in the NL since his excellent rookie season in '01-2.73 ERA, 144 K-24 BB IN 141 2/3 IP. Oswalt collected 143 wins with Houston and had a great 2005 NLCS against the Cards before struggling in his only Series start against the Whitesox. Houston traded Oswalt to Philadelphia mid-way through the 2010 season for two minor leaguers and J.A. Happ, who should not be confused as a major leaguer. According to baseballreference, Oswalt's nickname is 'Wizard of Os'. Anyone who can confirm this nonsense, please email confirmingnonsense@offbasepercentage.com.

3rd - Rollins

This was the first of two J.R.C.O's (Jimmy Rollins? Come On!) votes. See: MVP, 2007. Rollins was a 22-year old shortstop for the Phillies and he led the league in triples (12) and stolen bases (46), but his percentages were mediocre-.274/.323/.419. I guess he gained some points because his name was Jimmy. People love guys named Jimmy.

T-4th - Dunn

Much has been made of Dunn's horrendous, Derwood-on-the-JV-team-like 2011 season with the Palehose, and it's been really bad (57 OPS+, -2.4 WAR), but he burst onto the scene in 2001 with excellent numbers-.371 on-base percentage, .578 slugging, 19 home runs in just 286 plate appearances. Dunn would go on to club 335 more home runs over the next nine seasons with Cincinnati, Arizona and Washington before this season's debacle on the South Side.

T-4th - Smith

Oh yes, it's Bud Smith. The Cardinals' answer to the question: who the hell is Bud Smith?

A: it's that guy, right over there. THAT'S Bud Smith!

I was all ready to make a bunch of Bud Smith jokes until I looked at his appearances in 2001 and realized in only three of his 14 starts did he give up more than three earned runs. He also pitched a complete game, shut out against San Diego September 3. You know who finished up that game for the Padres? Rookie Wascar Serrano.


Official Offbase 2001 NL ROY voting

1. Albert Pujols
2. Roy Oswalt
3. Adam Dunn
4. Bud Smith
5. Jimmy Rollins
6. Wascar Serrano

Albert Pujols Is The Machine After All

Any doubts about Albert Pujols being at least part robot should be put to rest. Worst case scenario is he has some T-1000 from Terminator 2 in him. Pujols, disabled since June 20th, is awaiting a midday exam to determine if the first baseman can return to the Cardinals lineup as early as tonight...

Pujols took ground balls and hit off a pitching machine Monday, implying his return is sooner than later. The three-time NL most valuable player has been on the disabled list since June 20 with a hairline fracture of the distal tip of his left radius. Whether he returns for tonight's game against the Cincinnati Reds or later this week, Pujols should be back much sooner than initial projections of four to six weeks.

"I can't wait to get back on the field," he said. "Hopefully, it can be (today). If it's not, whenever the time comes will be the right time to play."

Robo-Pujols hit the ground in agony after the dastardly attack by Wilson Betemit (disappointing baseball fans since 2001) on June 19th. Pujols disagreed with the MRI and CT scan declaring he felt he could play the day after sustaining the injury. He continued to deny feeling any pain (only the malfunctioning robots like Johnny 5 can even feel emotional pain) and Tony La Russa recently announced Pujols wouldn't need a rehab assignment after being cleared to return.

Even if Pujols returns tonight, he won't participate in this year's All Star Game next week. Pujols got off to a slow start in his ballyhooed contract season. The slugger has 17 homers and a .279/.355/.500 line, all of which are well below career averages. Perhaps he just needed a shock to the system or some time off for rewiring. Either way, Pujols looks to return far sooner than any mere mortal could.



I turned 31 and I've had this pain in my hip for like a year now. Come on science, I'm falling apart here.

Curveballs for Jobu 4/16/2011

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Tim Unroe.

Cardinals 11, Dodgers 2.
Looks like that Pujols fella is starting to warm up. Albert went 2-5 with a pair of homers. What's weird though is that Lance Berkman hit his fifth and sixth home runs of the season. I don't think there's anyway he keeps this up and he plays right field like he's cemented to the field but so far that signing looks pretty good.

Angels 4, White Sox 3.
After a rain delay, Jered Weaver gave up a two-run home run to Adam Dunn and saw his ERA baloon to 1.30. And he only struck out four so I'm starting to worry about him. He did run his record to 4-0 and I'm beginning to get cautiously optimistic about the Angels 2011 chances in the West.

Rangers 5, Yankees 3.
The Yankees took turns hitting into double plays (6!) and the Rangers got 8 strong innings from Matt Harrison to keep rolling right along. Damn, the Rangers drive me crazy.

Padres 4, Astros 2.
Isn't that adorable? They think they're real MLB teams.

Royals 6, Mariners 5.
Jeff Francoeur, hitting cleanup for the Royals, went 3-4 with a home run and zero strikeouts. He's hitting .327/.339/.509 so far. As soon as I see some locusts, I'm declaring Apocalypse.

Other games, but down here....

Indians 8, Orioles 2.
Blue Jays 7, Red Sox 6.
Rays 5, Twins 2.
Tigers 8, A's 4 (10).
Nationals 4, Brewers 3 (10).
Marlins 4, Phillies 3.
Pirates 6, Reds 1.
Braves, Mets PPD
Rockies 5, Cubs 0.
Giants 5, Diamondbacks 2.

So, The Cardinals Season Can Get Worse

St. Louis fans have had it pretty rough already this season. The Cards were unable to reach a new deal with Albert Pujols before the season started and are now faced with the pending Apocalypse if Pujols actually leaves in free agency. I'd certainly be nervous if I was a Cards fan but I think they find a way to keep the best hitter in baseball. They can always sell the Arch to zee Germans for some extra cash. Germans like shiny things (I've given up on even trying to use accurate stereotypes).

Then their ace, Adam Wainwright, is forced to undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss at least 2011. There goes approximately five wins off of the Cardinals season total. Kyle McClellan had a fine season out of the pen but he's not throwing a 2.27 ERA in the rotation. Sorry I had to break that to you, Kyle's parents.

If matters couldn't get any worse, Nick Punto hit the disabled list with a sports hernia. Don't worry, his projected 0.2 WAR should be back by the end of April and he'll resume his duty of weighing down the right side of the bench.

But then, after going 3-4 with a home run in the opener, Matt Holliday underwent an appendectomy today...

"We’ll make a determination. It could be something like six or seven days, or it could be more," general manager John Mozeliak said shortly before Holliday entered surgery. "We don’t know at this point. We certainly will know more later."

Six or seven days seems awfully optimistic. The more realistic timetable appears to be two or three weeks. PECOTA called for a 29 homer, .311/.389/.536 season for Holliday so even missing 15-20 games is a pretty big blow. In house replacements, John Jay and Allen Craig, don't inspire much confidence and I haven't played right field since I was eight and terrified of flying objects. Not that the Cardinals have called me...yet.

Pujols Will Veto Any Trade, Now Give Him All Of Your Money

Albert Pujols has already set a spring training deadline to get an extension signed with the Cardinals and now he has apparently made it clear that he won't be approving a trade this year either...

Sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com that Pujols will not accept any trade proposal. And with his 10 and 5 rights, he has every right to do so. There’s always the chance he could change his mind, but we should probably assume that he’ll be a Cardinal this season no matter what.

Obviously the Cardinals are going to have to fork over a ton of cash to keep Pujols long term. The SportsDome suggested giving him a working key to the city. But I'm sure they can raise enough funds by putting the Arch on Craigslist or adding a "Pujols tax" to every bottle of Bud Light.

In his first 10 years in the league, Pujols has racked up 80.6 Wins Above Replacement. To put that into perspective, let's look at my favorite tool at Fangraphs, the War Graph. Here's Pujols' cumulative WAR by age compared to some guy named Stan Musial and former Yankee pinch hitter Lou Gehrig. Click to embiggen.



The 31-year-old slugger has 408 home runs and a career .331/.426/.624 line. That's such a good looking line it wouldn't even let me buy it a drink. Dave Cameron figured Pujols would be worth +42.5 WAR during a 10-year contract from 2012 through 2021. In cash, that would be about $267 million. Cameron also said somewhere (that guy is everywhere) that he wouldn't mind giving Pujols 10-years and $300 million considering the extra bump for being the entire franchise.

If he added $300 million to the $100M or so he's already made, he could finally buy Rhode Island and hunt hobos for sport in the off-season. Or was that my fantasy? Either way, that's a lot of money.

Bonus WAR Math: Pujols career WAR through 2011 80.6 + 2011 projection of 7.5 + Cameron's 2012-2021 projection 42.5 = 130.6

That would be good for 12th place all time, ahead of Gehrig and behind Eddie Collins.

BBA NL Stan Musial Award Ballot

Baseball's award season is upon us and we finally have a vote that counts for something this year. We're proud members of the Baseball Blogger Alliance and they've been kind enough to give us ballots. The only thing the BBWAA ever gave us was Jimmy Rollins as the 2007 NL MVP. It's not like Albert Pujols was worth 2 more wins and had a .429 OBP or anything. Today we'll be unveiling our NL Stan Musial ballot for player of the year. Note: I completely ignored RBI.

1. Joey Votto
Votto and Albert Pujols put up almost identical stats. Votto had the slightest of edges in WAR (wins above replacement) with a 7.4 to Pujols' 7.3, on base percentage with .424 to .414, slugging percentage with .600 to .596 and even UZR (ultimate zone rating) with 1.6 to 1.5. Pujols ended the season with five more home runs, 42 to 37. The two were almost interchangeable first basemen in the National League. Votto had 19 more points of wOBA (weighted on base average) than Pujols which cancels out my other tie-breaker. The other tie-breaker, you ask? Votto is only worth 8 Scrablle points compared to the 14 for Pujols. I'm a scientist.

2. Albert Pujols
↑ ↑ ↑

3. Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman continues to fly under the radar in Washington because of hot prospects like Sthephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper but he's been the face of the franchise for years. He hit 25 home runs and .307/.388/.510 as the best defensive third baseman in baseball (13.9 UZR) and is still just 26-years-old. His 7.2 WAR was just a shade behind that of Votto and Pujols but, unfortunately, he's destined to finish in MVP voting like Teddy Roosevelt does in the Presidents race. Okay, better than Teddy but still...

4. Roy Halladay
My NL pitcher of the year. And to be honest, I'm not entirely sure he isn't the NL MVP.

5. Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo was a beast down the stretch hitting 15 homers and .303/.366/.754 in September. He finished the regular season with a .315/.381/.568 line and a 6.4 WAR. The Rox let me down in the playoff race but I can't hate on Buster Posey. Also cool about the Colorado Rockies, they serve Denver omelets throughout the stadium at kiosks.[citation needed]

6. Matt Holliday
Holliday was a great Robin to Pujols' Batman for the Cardinals hitting .312/.390/.532 for a 6.9 WAR.

7. Adam Wainwright
My second best NL pitcher of the year.

8. Carlos Gonzalez
Cargo had a little variation in his home stats (.380/.425/.737) compared to his line away from Coors Field (.289/.322/.453). Woof. Sure the splits are ugly but he still finished with 34 home runs and a .336/.376/.598 line. That's roughly what I put up last week in my backyard Wiffle Ball league.

9. Ubaldo Jimenez
My third place NL pitcher of the year.

10. Brian McCann
There are plenty of good candidates for the final place on this ballot. While McCann's 5.3 WAR and .269/.375/.453 line weren't tops in the league, he plays a premium position and was the offensive force on his team aside from 20-year-old rookie Jason Heyward. Who says I never give Atlanta any love? Put your hands down, all of my Atlanta based friends.

Is Derwood Headed to a NASCAR race?

A little over a month ago I examined three potential triple crown candidates: Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto. While Hamilton looks to be on his way to a batting title, Jose Bautista has a healthy lead in the HR race (38 to Cabrera's 31 and Hamilton's 28), and the Detroit behemoth leads the AL with 102 RBIs to Hamilton's 88. So we can probably count those two out. Votto is another story.

Back in my July 15 piece, I said if Votto wins the NL triple crown, I'll watch five minutes of a NASCAR race. That was my promise to the Offbase readers, but I thought I was safe. I certainly never thought the jerk would be so close in all three categories on August 23. I still don't think he's going to win it, so I'm raising the stakes: if Joey Votto wins the NL triple crown, I'll ATTEND a NASCAR race.

Derwood's head: "Don't press PUBLISH", don't press PUBLISH", "don't press PUBLISH..."



Votto leads the NL with a .323 average, currently five points better than Atlanta's Martin Prado. Standing in his way in the other two categories is that loser Albert Pujols, who is finally putting together a decent season for the Cardinals. Pujols has a 32-29 lead over Votto in HR (Washington's Adam Dunn is second with 31), and an 89-86 cushion in RBIs. It's basicaly Pujols vs. Votto, and with about 40 games left, I could easily see happen any of the following:

1. Pujols takes off in all three places (he's also fourth in average at .316)
2. Dunn hits a ton of home runs and leaves Pujols and Votto behind
3. Joey Votto wins the 2010 triple crown, forcing me to go Murfreesboro, TN for the Premium Select Rye Bread 500

In other words, I really want Adam Dunn to hit a lot of home runs over the next month.

Shot Of The Night

Shot Of The Night is Off Base Percentage's toast to a player who had an exceptionally good or bad night. There's always a reason to drink.

Last night's shot of the night was a Tiger Jack: 1/2 shot grenadine syrup, 2 shots Jack Daniel's® Tennessee whiskey, 1 shot triple sec, orange juice. Apparently, SotN's posting time is directly related to where I find my keys in the morning. Yesterday I posted this segment at 5-ish and my keys were in the bathroom. Today, we're up and at 'em before noon and my keys were merely on my bedroom floor by the door. If I ever miss a SotN, feel free to assume my keys were on the roof and I was in the hospital. Where were we? Oh yeah, the shot of the night was in honor of Miguel Cabrera.

Miggy went 3-6 with 2 homers and 3 RBI while the Tigers took an 8-6 loss to the Rangers in 14 innings. If I was a betting man (and I am, I think I bet on a Saved By The Bell movie being made last night, original cast), Miguel Cabrera would be my choice for 40+ home runs this season. In fact, Miggy might have a real shot at the Triple Crown which Derwood pointed out earlier. Cabrera now has 24 home runs and 82 RBI to go along with a .340/.418/.645 slash line. The scary part is that Cabrera is just 27-years-old and probably just reaching his peak years.

Honorable Mention: Albert Pujols
For a point of reference, let's take a look at Albert Pujols. Widely believed to be the best hitter in baseball, Pujols went 2-4 with a homer and 3 RBI last night. Pujols has 22 home runs and 67 RBI to go with a .310/.413/.578 slash line. Miguel Cabrera (3.8 WAR) is basically a younger Pujols (3.6 WAR) right now.

The Off Base ESPY Preview

Ah, the day after MLB's All Star Game. This is usually the slowest sports news day of the year but there has been plenty of action today. The Braves traded Yunel Escobar and Jo Jo Reyes to the Blue Jays for Alex Gonzalez and a couple of prospects. The Atlanta Hawks dealt Josh Childress to the Phoenix Suns in a sign-and-trade. And some soccer player named Theirry Henry, who I can only assume is well past his prime, signed with the New York Red Bulls. Look at me writing about non-vuvuzela soccer news. I'm well-rounded.

Alright you got me, it' still a pretty slow news day and there aren't even any baseball games to look forward to. But we do have the ESPYs in live fashion tonight. Hoozah. Actually, I'll admit I'm a little excited because the New Orleans Saints figure to clean up. Let's take a look at baseball's role in the award show...

Best MLB Player: Zach Greinke (KC), Derek Jeter (NYY), Tim Lincecum (SF), Joe Mauer (MN), Albert Pujols (STL)

The nominees are last year's AL and NL MVP and Cy Young winners and Derek Jeter. I don't plan on being shocked when Jeter wins it either. But I'm going to take a look at WAR just so we can see who was the most valuable.

1. Zach Greinke 9.4 WAR
2. Albert Pujols 8.7 WAR
3. Ben Zobrist 8.3 WAR
4. Justin Verlander 8.2 WAR
5. Tim Lincecum 8.2 WAR
6. Joe Mauer 8.0 WAR
7. Chase Utley 7.6 WAR
8. Derek Jeter 7.4 WAR

Greinke's season was simply spectacular but who are we kidding? A pitcher from Kansas City isn't winning Player of the Year in a fan voting competition. I figure Pujols will be Jeter's biggest competition while my sentimental favorite, Chase Utley, gets overlooked once again.

Best Team: Alabama football, Chicago Blackhawks, Connecticut women's basketball, Los Angeles Lakers, New Orleans Saints, New York Yankees

Personally, I like hockey. I played for a long time. But I think it's adorable if they think they're winning anything but Best Hockey Player. I think the Yankees have a legit shot at winning here but the Saints are just about going to be the favorites for everything. Which is fine by me.

Best Male Athlete: Drew Brees (NFL), Kobe Bryant (NBA), LeBron James (NBA), Jimmie Johnson (Nascar), Albert Pujols (MLB)

Again, I'd be down right shocked if Brees doesn't walk away with this awards. The image of him holding his son after the Saints won the Super Bowl still chokes me up a little. Pujols might be able to finish second if Kobe and LeBron split the basketball vote. I will admit Jimmie Johnson had an amazing year turning left. Okay, I made that up. I have no idea what he did last year.

Best Game: Twins beat Tigers in extra innings (AL Central one-game tie-breaker), Canada edges USA in Olympic Hockey championship game in overtime, Duke gets past Butler in the NCAA championship

I think the baseball game has a great shot here. But Duke did win a championship with their game. I do know that Canada beating the USA in hockey has no shot. You should also know that I'm terrible at predicting anything involving sports and I make a pretty mean Philly cheese steak.

Best Coach/Manager: Geno Auriemma (Connecticut women's basketball), Joe Girardi (New York Yankees), Phil Jackson (Los Angeles Lakers), Mike Krzyzewski (Duke men's basketball), Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints), Nick Saban (Alabama football)

I assume Payton is the favorite here. I realize I'm a pretty big Saints homer but what he and Brees have done with this franchise is unreal. There isn't another franchise that means as much to its city as the Saints mean to New Orleans. So bringing a championship to New Orleans gets Payton and Brees immediate hero status. Sorry but that rant was inevitable. I'm surprised I lasted this long. In baseball, bad managers can cost teams more games than good managers can win games. The difference between good managers is negligible.

Best Breakthrough Athlete: Brittney Griner (Baylor women's basketball), Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans), Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals), John Wall (University of Kentucky basketball)

If Strasburg doesn't win this, I'm rooting for him to start firing 100 mph fastballs at Seth Meyers. The Strasburg hype machine has been on overdrive this summer and he's fresh on people's minds with the All Star debate. I wouldn't recognize Brittney Griner if she walked in wearing her jersey.

Castrol Edge Performance Under Pressure Award: Sidney Crosby in the Olympic hockey gold-medal game, Landon Donovan in U.S. soccer's win over Algeria in the World Cup, Brett Favre in his return to Green Bay, Stephen Strasburg in his MLB debut

Crosby probably had the most pressure on him to win the Gold for Canada in Canada. Donovan had the biggest USA moment. Strasburg had the most impressive performance. So Brett Favre will win. Strasburg's 7 inning, 14 strikeout and zero walk debut was pure dominance. He flashed his 100 mph fastball and mixed in a 91 mph change up. He kicked off Strasburg-Mania and sells out road stadiums like he's the Beatles.

Best Sports Movie: Big Fan; Invictus; The Blind Side; The Damned United; The Karate Kid

This has nothing to with baseball but I loved Big Fan. It was pretty dark but Patton Oswalt was tremendous. I'm sure The Blind Side will win but go watch Big Fan. Oh and The Karate Kid? Hahahahaha *cough* hahahahaha