Curveballs for Jobu 5/23/11

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Jason Standridge.

Rays 4, Marlins 0.
James Shields continued his Cy Young season with a complete game shutout of the Marlins. He allowed just 3 hits, walked 1 and struck out 13. Shields is now 5-2 with a 2.00/2.85/2.68 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) pitching line. I'm not sure how often it happens, but Shields has consistently had a lower xFIP than FIP or ERA suggesting he's actually a better pitcher than his stats show. I believe Dave Cameron even picked him as his 2010 preseason Cy Young. He might have just been a year early or I completely made that up. It's hard for me to tell anymore.

Indians 12, Reds 4.
The Indians swept the Reds and own the best record in baseball. Joey Votto and Jay Bruce homered for the Reds but it wasn't enough to overcome, um, Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera went 5-5 with 2 home runs. Cabrera has more home runs (9) than Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and the aforementioned Votto just to name a few. I still don't think the Indians are one of the best teams in the league but, damn, if they just don't stop winning.

Cardinals 9, Royals 8 (10).
Colby Rasmus went 0-1 with five (5!) walks. That's like a reverse Platinum Sombrero or something catchier. Meanwhile in Kansas City, Jeff Francoeur (9), Alex Gordan (4) and Wilson Betemit (2) all hit home runs. Francoeur and Betemit going yard in the same game and nobody got raptured? I find that hard to believe.

Red Sox 5, Cubs 1.
This was the Sunday night game on ESPN. We do a live chat every Sunday night but I'm not sure if we watch the game or talk about baseball. It's fun though, tell your friends.

Mariners 6, Padres 1.
Felix Hernandez struck out 13 in 8 innings to help the M's sweep the Padres. At 22-24, the Mariners are just 1.5 games out of first in the AL West which brings up 2 points. 1) The AL West is pretty bad. 2) The Padres are really bad.

Angels 4, Braves 1.
My beloved Halos got back to .500 thanks to a nice rebound outing from Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood gave up 5 hits and 1 run over 7 innings while striking out 6. It looks like the rookie will keep his spot in the rotation. Scott Kazmir will likely be tried in the bullpen before his eventual release.

Other games, but down here...
Brewers 3, Rockies 1.
Yankees 9, Mets 3.
Astros 3, Blue Jays 2. Jose Bautista home runs, 0.
Orioles 2, Nationals 1.
White Sox 8, Dodgers 3.
Rangers 2, Phillies 0.
Tigers 2, Pirates 0.
Giants 5, A's 4 (11).
Diamondbacks 3, Twins 2.

Curveballs for Jobu 5/22/11

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Joe Slusarski.

Blue Jays 7, Astros 5.
Jose Bautista finally stopped dicking around and went 3-4 with 2 more home runs. Joey Bats was homerless in his 4 previous games (5 if you count a rain out, which I do for some reason). He now has 18 home runs, a .364/.509/.841 line and, if the folklore is accurate, a giant blue ox. Bautista's agent is Bean Stringfellow. Can't make that kind of stuff up. I laughed for 12 minutes.

Giants 3, A's 0.
Tim Lincecum is really good at throwing baseballs. The A's lineup is really bad at hitting them. That matchup resulted in 9 shut-out innings from Lincecum. He allowed just 3 hits with zero walks and 6 strikeouts. At one point, he retired 21 straight Athletics (if you can call them that). Lincecum is sitting at 2.06/2.63/2.75 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) with a 9.64 K/9 this year and is back in the discussion for best pitcher in baseball.

Yankees 7, Mets 3.
Curtis Granderson hit his 15th home run of the season off of Chris Capuano. Granderson now has more home runs against southpaws (8) than northpaws (7). He's still just hitting .255/.314/.809 against lefties but the power surge seems legit which is good news for the Yankees. Russell Martin (8), A-Rod (9) and Mark Teixeira (12) also went yard against Capuano who failed to make my Wiffle Ball team last year.

Phillies 2, Rangers 0.
Cliff Lee got an umpire with a reasonable strike zone and went 8 shut-out innings allowing 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10 former teammates. By the way, Lee has been fantastic this year metric wise (2.31 FIP, 2.45 xFIP, 10.53 K/9) but probably doesn't look like a Cy Young contender to the SportsCenter crowd (3-4, 3.38 ERA).

Mariners 4, Padres 0.
What an amazing rivalry. Thank you interleague play. Michael Pineda gave up 2 hits in 7 innings for the M's and is now 6-1 with a 2.16/2.26/2.99 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) pitching line. It's possible the 22-year-old is even better than advertised. He has to be the front runner for the AL ROY and is one of two reasons to turn on a Mariners game (King Felix being the other).

Braves 4, Angels 3 (12).
Fernando Rodney pitched a perfect third of the 7th inning. No hits, no runs and no walks. Color me impressed.

Other games, but down here...
Brewers 3, Rockies 2.
White Sox 9, Dodgers 2.
Cardinals 3, Royals 0.
Orioles 8, Nationals 3.
Indians 2, Reds 1.
Cubs 9, Red Sox 3.
Marlins 5, Rays 3.
Pirates 6, Tigers 2.
Diamondbacks 9, Twins 6.

Felix Wins By A Wide Margin Then Back To Normal

Felix Hernandez won his first Cy Young running away, receiving 21 of the 28 first place votes. King Felix was a horse pitching 249.2 innings while leading the American League with a 2.27 ERA. He was second in complete games (6) and strikeouts (232). And for those of us practicing nerdism, Felix was fourth in the league with a 3.04 FIP and third with a 6.2 WAR. The debate was whether he could take home the award with a 13-12 record against the likes of CC Sabathia (21 wins, 3.18 ERA), David Price (19 wins, 2.72 ERA) and Jon Lester (19 wins, 3.25 ERA).

The voters got it right and the BBWAA has done a solid job overall during this award season. Price, in a mild surprise, finished second receiving four first place votes over Sabathia and his three first place votes. Jon Lester placed fourth with Jered Weaver finishing a distant fifth. The win totals after Felix's 13 went back to the normal 19, 21, 19 and another 13. But Weaver did lead the league in strikeouts and had a 3.01 ERA. I'm surprised Justin Verlander's 18 wins didn't get him more than one fifth place vote.

In my ballot for the BBA, I had a coin flip between Felix and Cliff Lee for first and ended up settling with Felix for the top spot. Lee just managed one third place vote, one fourth and one fifth. Lee only won 12 games but he did pitch more innings than Price and Lester. I know the voting is getting better as far as looking at statistics past wins and ERA so I might be getting a little ahead of myself. However, Lee led the AL with a 2.58 FIP and 7.1 WAR. The reason I gave Lee more love than anyone else I've seen was his strikeout to walk ratio. Lee finished with a ridiculous 10.28 K/BB rate. Jered Weaver was second best with his 4.31 ratio.

Perhaps I'm a bit cynical even though the voters chose the best pitcher in the AL for the Cy. There was a big groundswell for Felix Hernandez by the stat guys and all of us writing from our moms' basements toward the end of the season. The main stream media had to take notice of our deifying of Felix this year. I suspect that's why he won by such a large margin. If the voters were really looking at advanced metrics now, wouldn't Cliff Lee have received more support? It's just a thought. Even the great Joe Sheehan admitted it was a tough year to sort out via Twitter...

@MnkysThrwngDrts I had him #5 (Lee). The AL Cy pool was a mess, seven or eight guys with cases, metrics pointing all over the place.

Fair enough. But Francisco Liriano was second in FIP (2.66) and fourth in WAR (6.0) and he received one fifth place vote. The aforementioned 18-game winner Justin Verlander finished third in FIP (2.97) and second in WAR (6.3) while being rewarded with a single fifth place vote. It just makes me wonder if Felix won due to the overwhelming hype surrounding him rather than the voters actually warming up to advanced metrics.

Halladay Unanimous, Johnson Undervalued

The BBWAA announced that Roy Halladay picked up all 32 first place votes on his way to winning the National League Cy Young. Exactly zero people were surprised. Halladay was the perfect storm of shiny mainstream stats and nerdy advanced metrics. His 21 wins, nine complete games, four shutouts and 250.2 innings led the league. The 2.44 ERA was second, 3.01 FIP was third, 2.92 xFIP was first just like his 6.6 WAR. I had Halladay first on my ballot for the BBA where he also finished first unanimously.

So the right guy won and won running away but, as a blogger, it's my duty to find something to bitch about. I could complain about Brian Wilson and Heath Bell getting more voting love than Tim Lincecum but instead I'll just point out that nobody, including me, realized how good Josh Johnson was in 2010. I had him fourth on my ballot and that's where he finished in the BBA standings. The BBWAA had him fifth behind Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Tim effing Hudson.

Really Johnson, Wainwright and Jimenez could have finished in any order after Halladay but Johnson didn't receive a single second place vote. I suppose the BBWAA reasoning was the same as mine. Johnson only pitched 183.2 innings which was 45 fewer than Hudson, 38 from Jimenez and 47 from Wainwright. Obviously that a pretty substantial gap in usage but he was brilliant when on the mound. His 2.30 ERA and 2.41 FIP were tops in the league and his 6.3 WAR was tied with Jimenez for second. If I had it to do over, I might have had Johnson second.

I guess this rant was more about Hudson who finished fourth due to his 17 wins and 2.83 ERA. Hudson's actual ERA should have been closer to his 4.09 FIP. Hudson was incredibly lucky thanks to a 2.50 BABIP and his 2.7 WAR ranked 29th among starting pitchers. I know I'm more obsessed with WAR than I should be but Hudson wasn't anywhere close to the top five pitchers in the NL.

Felt like I should have had more to complain about but I guess that will have to wait until Thursday when the AL Cy Young gets announced. That one is going to be filled with nonsense.

Dissecting The BBA Walter Johnson Awards

The BBA announced their Walter Johnson Award winners for the AL and NL pitcher of the year. The Baseball Blogger Alliance is made up of 233 blogs that range in covering all 30 teams to general baseball. The voting mirrors that of the BBWAA and is broken up into chapters. Our little blog of stats and nonsense votes in the general baseball chapter because the BBA wouldn't give us an entire chapter of our own dedicated to some borderline unstable writing. Stonsense is what we've been throwing around the office but we're open to suggestions.

I don't have a problem with the voting outcome for the National League since the final tally was almost identical to my ballot except I had Tim Lincecum fifth and left Tim Hudson off of my ballot. Plus, Roy Halladay won unanimously. So, good job bloggers. The AL ballot, however, ugh. I thought we were making some progress in the blogosphere but I spend an inordinate amount of time at FanGraphs. Oh Dave Cameron, your site has ruined my productivity. I only get around to about two naps per day now thanks to FanGraphs. I should note, if it isn't obvious, that I use FanGraphs' WAR (fWAR) for my analysis. Let's take a look at the the final voting for the AL pitcher of the year...

1. Felix Hernandez
I have no issue with Felix in the top spot. I had Felix first on my ballot and, while I didn't think he was the runaway winner, the BBA voters did. Felix received 18 of 22 first place votes for 137 points. I thought Felix was going to win and I thought he was deserving but I would have preferred to see more love for my second pick instead of...

2. CC Sabathia
Oy. I'm afraid this will be the outcome of the BBWAA voting as well but I was hoping for a little more from my blogging brethren. Sabathia led the AL in wins with a shiny 21-7 record. Yay, wins! He finished with a 3.18/3.54/3.78 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line and a 5.1 WAR (wins above replacement). The ERA was nice but he finished worth 1.9 runs fewer than Cliff Lee. Sabathia's 2.66 K/BB is laughable compared to Lee's 10.28 K/BB ratio. The only argument I can see against Lee to be the top choice, or second, is that he just pitched 212.1 innings. But I don't think that three extra starts for the Yankees gives Sabathia any case here. In fact, I left him off of my ballot all together.

3. David Price
Price had the second most wins in the American League with a 19-6 record but had a much shinier ERA than Sabathia. Price finished with a 2.72/3.42/3.99 line but his 2.38 K/BB ratio was also dwarfed by Cliff Lee's and Price actually threw 3.2 fewer innings. Lee also dominated Price in WAR, 7.0 to 4.3. Somebody please explain to me how Price was better than Lee and don't even think about using the "w" word. For the record, I had Jered Weaver in this spot because he was second in K/BB to Lee and led the AL in SIERA. Weaver was also worth 1.6 more wins than Price.

4. Cliff Lee
Bout damn time. Although he didn't receive one first place vote but Sabathia got three and Price got one. *aims shotgun at pitcher wins*

5. Jered Weaver
I don't have a problem with Weaver at five. Maybe I overrated him some because of his SIERA and FIP and K/BB ratio. His 5.9 fWAR was good for exactly fifth place in the AL.

So who, in my opinion, was erroneously left out of the top five? I'm glad you didn't ask. I had Justin Verlander fourth thanks to his AL second best 6.3 fWAR. I said in my ballot post that Verlander was probably a straight WAR pick since his peripherals weren't otherworldly. Not entirely true, his 2.97 FIP was third best in the AL. But his strikeout rate was down and his xFIP was higher than anyone else I've mentioned except for Sabathia and Price. Verlander finished last with only five points in the voting. Yikes.

My final choice was Francisco Liriano. He only pitched 191.2 innings but he had an AL best 3.06 xFIP and second best 3.02 SIERA. If I've lost you but you kept reading for whatever reason, that means Liriano severely outpitched his 3.62 ERA. He was roughly worth a win more than Sabathia and two wins more than Price. I don't won't to preach too much about randomness or luck because that's not what we started this site for but it should at least be recognized. Liriano was extremely unlucky this season.

I filled out all of my ballots based on who I thought the best players were and not how I thought the BBWAA results were going to turn out. I suspect the BBWAA voting will mirror the BBA's when it comes time for them to reveal their Cy Youngs. But I'll take comfort from the Bible passage that claims the nerds will inherit the Earth. Or that might have been from a Simpsons episode or I made it entirely.

BBA AL Walter Johnson Award Ballot

Baseball's award season is upon us and we finally have a vote that counts for something this year. We're proud members of the Baseball Blogger Alliance and they've been kind enough to give us ballots. The only thing the BBWAA ever gave us was an autographed Brien Taylor baseball signed in crayon. Today we'll be unveiling our AL Walter Johnson ballot for pitcher of the year. Note: I completely ignored wins.

1. Felix Hernandez
I'm almost reluctant to place King Felix first here because I have a much stronger statistical case for my second place vote getter. And sorry New York, CC didn't even make my ballot. Felix is certainly deserving after pitching a 2.27/3.04/3.26 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line over 249.2 innings. He finished the season with a 6.2 WAR and a 3.19 SIERA. It was a fantastic season by all accounts and the only reason for Mariners' fans to undo the nooses they fashioned around the ceiling fan in their parents' dining room. But...

2. CLiff Lee
Some fair warning, I love the stats more than Jay and Silent Bob love the mother effing Time. Lee led all pitchers in WAR (7.0) and also led the galaxy with a 10.28 K/BB ratio. So, Lee's final pitching line was 3.18/2.58/3.23 and he had a 3.03 SIERA but threw around 37 fewer innings than Felix. Are four starts enough to justify putting Hernandez over Lee? I'm not sure. The other issue I looked at here was Lee's average .302 BABIP compared to Hernandez's .273 BABIP. Neither was particularly lucky or unlucky and the difference can probably be explained by Lee being a slightly more flyball pitcher (40.4%) than Hernandez (29.8%). The two were much closer than I initially thought and I just about flipped a coin for the top spot. I suspect Felix will run away with this award but Lee is just as deserving.

3. Jered Weaver
Weaver was asked to become the staff ace after John Lackey's free agent departure and Weaver rose to the occasion. Weaver led the American League in strikeouts with 233, one more than Felix Hernandez. He finished with a .301/3.06/3.51 line and a 5.9 WAR. Weaver's 2.97 SIERA was tops among AL starters. To reinforce just how dominant Cliff Lee was, Weaver finished with the second highest K/BB ratio (4.31) but was still three light years behind Lee's ridiculous 10.28 ratio. Like Felix to the Mariners, Weaver was one of the lone bright spots in a disappointing Angels' season.

4. Justin Verlander
Here's my straight WAR pick. Verlander had a good season with a 3.37/2.97/3.68 line and his 6.3 WAR was second in the League to Cliff Lee. Verlander's strikeout numbers dipped form 10.09 K/9 to 8.79 dooming my fantasy baseball team.

5. Francisco Liriano
Liriano had a much better season than his 3.62 ERA suggested but I don't how how much the BBWAA will look at his 2.66 FIP or 3.06 xFIP for voting purposes. David Price and CC Sabathia are sure to get more ballot love thanks to their shiny win totals. Liriano was even unlucky to some extent with a .340 BABIP that would have been higher if he didn't have the Twins defense behind him.

AJ Burnett Told No Thank You By Yankees

The Yankees have decided to start CC Sabathia on short rest rather than giving AJ Burnett a game 4 start. Burnett had just about his worst professional season in 2010 during the second year of his 5-year, $82.5 million contract. His 5.26/4.83/4.66 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line is the worst of his career and, perhaps even more concerning, he struck out much fewer (6.99 K/9) than his career average (8.34 K/9). His walk and strand rates were right along his career norms and his BABIP (.319) wasn't wildly unlucky. He simply stopped striking hitters out this year.

So the Yanks will give Sabathia and 38-year-old Andy "Come On, You Know You Want To" Pettitte 2 starts if necessary against the Twins and they'll mix in a game 3 start from Phil Hughes. How the Yankees can spend $3 billion on payroll and not find a quality fourth starter baffles me. I suppose that will be corrected this off-season when they write Cliff Lee a blank check.

In a rather amusing turn of events, the Yankees will face former "employee" and blog enemy Carl Pavano. Pavano is enjoying a nice bounce back season for the Twins sporting a decent 3.75/4.02/4.01 pitching line. And with a 17-11 record, he'll most likely receive way too many Cy Young votes. Which I will find hilarious because it will make Derwood's head explode.

Reverse AL Cy Young Ballot

On Monday, I took an early look at my imaginary AL Cy Young ballot and I have to admit that it doesn't look that good after Lee and Weaver got rocked. There's still plenty of time for things to change and I'm afraid if CC Sabathia wins 20 some odd games he will undeservedly win.

Derwood recently told me that we tend to write more about players' failures than successes. While I was researching this post, I realized he might be on to something. Just four days after writing about the best pitchers in the American League, I really wanted to write about the worst. We can't help it. We're the baseball blog version of Nelson Muntz.

So this is how I'd vote if I had a ballot for worst pitcher in the AL. A reverse Cy Young, if you will. And I actually have no idea what any of their records are because wins and losses are useless for pitchers.

1. Brian Bannister
I feel bad for Banny but if it's any consolation the second worst pitcher in the AL isn't too far back. Bannister is one of the few players who actively studies sabermetrics. Unfortunately, there isn't a metric out there that makes him look like a good pitcher. I mean, he's better than you but you're not actually the picture of fitness. Instead of trying to construct your own KFC Skinwich, why don't you try doing a couple of situps? What was I talking about?

Banny's WAR is 0.0 making him essentially a replacement player. Which at $2.3 million, is way too much for the Royals to be paying him. He has the highest ERA in the AL at 5.95 while his 4.83 xFIP suggests he isn't as terrible as his ERA implies. Good old Yuni Betencourt sure does work wonders at short, huh? Banny's 1.60 K/BB ratio isn't doing him any favors either.

2. Wade Davis
Davis might not look like the second worst pitcher in the AL at first glance with a 4.45 ERA. But he has the second highest xFIP (4.98), second lowest WAR (0.1) and second lowest +WPA (8.72). His BABIP (2.80) is nearly 20 points lower than his lowest projection (2.99 from CHONE and DiPS) which means he's been bad and lucky this year. The 1.60 K/BB is at Brian Bannister levels of mediocrity.

3. Kyle Davies
Time to rejoice Royals fans, 2 of your player made it on my ballot. Davies has the highest xFIP (5.01) to go with his 5.22 ERA. His 3.08 BABIP and 1.41 K/BB are right in line with his projections. He is basically 1 win better than a replacement player.

4. Kevin Millwood
Millwood has the lowest WPA in the AL at -2.63 but that's because he is a horse and pitches more terrible innings than your average pitcher can. His 5.49 ERA is poor enough but his 4.60 xFIP is the best on the list. So is his 2.10 K/BB. The 0.08 WAR basically puts him in the same crappy boat as Kyle Davies with one little exception. Millwood is making roughly $13 million more than Davies. *shudders*

5. Scott Feldman
I tried to see if Feldman's hitter friendly home field hurt his numbers but his HR/9 and xFIP are both better in Arlington than on the road. Even his BABIP at home is higher than on the road suggesting he's been unlucky there too. He's sporting a 5.44 ERA and a 4.85 xFIP with a 1.66 K/BB. There are more players with a lower WAR than him (1.20) but this is my ballot.

Derwood is right. It does feel good to point out the shortcomings of others from behind the keyboard and on my couch. And by couch, I mean milk crate.

Felix Hernandez's Role In The AL Cy Young

With 7 weeks to go in the season, it's still a little early for award predicting. But Geoff Baker had to write something for The Seattle Times and I suppose I need to write something here. Baker believes Hernandez, despite his 8-10 record, can make a legitimate run because he's in the top 5 in Innings (1st), ERA (4th), Strikeouts (2nd) and Complete Games (2nd). Then Baker blows my mind talking about King Felix being in the top 5 of FIP and xFIP. Geoff Baker, you had me at FIP.

Felix Hernandez is having another great CY Young type season that I guess I didn't even really notice because he is a Mariner. So, I guess it's about time for me to take a quick look at my fictional Cy Young ballot. The ballot has been expanded to 5 spots from 3 spots for what might as well be called the Keith Law Law. For my imaginary ballot, I'll be ignoring wins (sorry Carl Pavano) because just stop it already.

1. Cliff Lee
Lee has been downright masterful with his command of the strike zone. His 15.22 K/BB ratio would not only shatter Brett Saberhagan's 11.00 ratio from 1994 but make Jered Weaver look like a jerk with his second best 4.44 this year. Lee (3.25) has the second best xFIP in the AL and has the most complete games in the league with 7. He also has the best WAR (6.0) and WPA (3.72) in the AL.

2. Felix Hernandez
After Lee, the rest of the best are a pretty tight group but King Felix is as deserving as any. The innings and strikeouts are impressive but Baker didn't mention that Hernandez is also tied for 5th in hits. His .294 BABIP suggests he hasn't really been unlucky in that area either. He's 4th in xFIP (3.36) but only .11 points off from Cliff Lee. He's also 3rd in WAR (4.8) and 4th in WPA (2.80) in the AL. The 10 or 11 wins he'll end up with will certainly hurt him though. It's unfortunate for him that your sister scores more every year than the Mariners.

3. Jered Weaver
Weaver is flying under the radar despite leading the AL in strikeouts. He was placed in the ace role for the Halos after Lackey departed and has certainly lived up to it. He's 5th in xFIP (3.38) and 2nd in K/BB (4.44). He's 5th in WAR (4.4) at Fangraphs or tied for 1st with Lee (4.7) at B-R. I should note that I use Fangraphs for most of my stats unless Baseball-Reference helps my argument better. He's also 2nd in WPA (3.34) in the AL. If he can get up to 15-16 wins from the 11 he's sitting at, he might have a good chance at running up Cliff Lee. Unless Pavano gets to 20 wins, then all bets are off.

4. Jon Lester
Lester has the most wins (13) on my ballot. His BB/9 ratio is up this year from his previous 2 years which is keeping him from being in the top 5 in K/BB but he is 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (165). He's 3rd in xFIP (3.26) just .01 away from Cliff Lee. Lester is 4th in WAR (4.6) and 3rd in WPA (3.24). Considering his wins and market, he'll probably end up finishing much higher than 4th.

5. Francisco Liriano
Liriano isn't close to the top 10 in innings pitched but he's been exceptional when he's throwing. Despite the fewer innings, he's still 4th in strikeouts (160). He leads the AL in both FIP (2.19) and xFIP (2.94). Liriano is 2nd in WAR (5.6)but only 11th in WPA (2.24). Liriano will probably only sniff the ballot if some of the new more sabermetrically inclined members get some AL Cy Young votes.

Ricky Romero Extended: A Look At The 2005 Draft

Toronto lefty Ricky Romero signed a 5-year, $30.1 million extension with the Blue Jays today. The 25-year-old pitcher broke into the bigs last season with the Jays with mixed reviews. He's sporting a 3.53 ERA which seems sustainable considering his 3.60 xFIP and .301 BABIP. Is a 25-year-old left handed pitcher with a 3.50 ERA worth a $30 million extension? It seems like a good deal to me from the Blue Jays side. The draft pick at the time was criticized since the Jays passed up Troy Tulowitzki in order to draft Romero. Let's hop in the way back machine and take a look at some of the other first round picks from 2005...

1. Justin Upton
Upton broke out in 2009 hitting 26 homers with a .300/.366/.532 line mixing in 20 stolen bases. He's having a disappointing season thus far to the tune of .272/.359/.449 but he is still just 22-years-old and has many more All Star appearances in his future.

2. Alex Gordon
The cornerstone of the Royals franchise has been anything but that in his young professional career. Gordon has managed 42 career homers and a .248/.328/.414 with the Royals while bouncing up and down between the minors. Plus he's already been moved to the outfield from third base. I still believe he can be a solid regular but not what the Royals thought they were getting with the second overall pick.

3. Jeff Clement
Bust.

4. Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman ended up being everything the Nationals expected. Zimmerman got a cup of coffee the year he was drafted and never looked back. The 25-year-old had his offensive breakout last season slugging 33 homers on his way to a .292/.364/.525 line. He's been even better this year hitting 22 homers with a .301/.390.540 line. Did I mention he might be the best fielding third baseman in baseball too?

5. Ryan Braun
Braun is the offensive juggernaut that everyone thought he'd be but he's godawful at defense. He was drafted as a third baseman but after posting a -27.7 UZR in 2007 he was quickly moved to left field. Last year he posted a -13.4 UZR there and is aiming to top that this year already sitting at a -10.7 UZR.

6. Ricky Romero

7. Troy Tulowitzki
If Tulo could stay healthy for a full season, he would rival Chase Utley as the player I feel gets no MVP love. In 2009, Tulo played a full season and hit 32 homers with a .297/.377/.552 line while playing a respectable short stop. The injury bug got him again this year but when active he's hitting .321/.382/.512.

They also got drafted...

9. Mike Pelfrey
Pelfrey is putting together a nice season for the Mets this year with a 3.94 FIP and might end up being a front of the rotation starter.

11. Andrew McCutchen
I was shocked to see that McCutchen's outfield UZR is -8.4 this year. The 23-year-old still figures to be one of the few exciting things Pirates fan have to look forward to in the immediate future.

12. Jay Bruce
While Bruce is still just 23-years-old, his major league career hasn't lived up to the hype surrounding him. But I'm pretty jaded considering I draft him every year for fantasy baseball.

23. Jacoby Ellsbury
The speedy Red Sox outfielder hit the disabled list for the third time this season. Boston has been snakebitten all year.

25. Matt Garza
Garza has been the Rays second best starter since the Twins gave him up for the underwhelming Delmon Young.

28. Colby Rasmus
Rasmus is on his way to being one of the key players for the Cardinals and picked up the rare reverse Golden Sombrero yesterday going 0-0 with 4 walks.

Shot Of The Night

Shot Of The Night is Off Base Percentage's toast to a player who had an exceptionally good or bad night. There's always a reason to drink.

Shot of the night is late because I've been fighting with insurance people all morning. And I couldn't write it last night because of all the drunken arguing I was doing. I'm pretty sure I had a Barry Bonds debate with a piece of lawn furniture. Last night's shot of the night was The Gold, The Bad, and The Ugly: 1 1/2 oz Kahlua® coffee liqueur, 1 oz Bailey's® Irish cream, fill with milk, 1 1/2 oz Goldschlager® cinnamon schnapps and it's mainly in honor of Trevor Cahill.

The Gold
The A's 22-year-old All Star pitcher threw a complete game shutout. He gave up more walks (4) than hits (3). Cahill is having a great year on paper with an 11-4 record and 2.72 ERA. But his .206 BABIP and 4.18 xFIP suggest he's not actually quite this good.

The Bad
While Cahill shutout the Royals in real baseball, I'm confident I could shut that lineup out in Wiffle Ball. If I had m good riser working that day. When you're lineup starts with Chris Getz and Jason Kendall, you know you're in for a rough day. Kila Ka'aihue: 0-1. Wilson Betemit: 1-2.

The Ugly
Brian Bannister. I really like Brian Bannister but he's not a good pitcher. He went 5 innings and surrendered 5 runs on 7 hits while walking 4 and striking out 4. Banny has embraced sabermetrics more than any other player in the MLB. So maybe he can take some comfort in knowing that his xFIP (4.85) suggests he's not as terrible as his ERA (5.95) implies.

Shot Of The Night

Shot Of The Night is Off Base Percentage's toast to a player who had an exceptionally good or bad night. There's always a reason to drink.

Sorry about shot of the night being late again but I've been in a strikeout coma. And as soon as I'm finished with this shot, I'm going back to writing about Golden Sombreros. Seriously hitters, it was cute when you used to give me maybe a 4 strikeout performance once a week. But 6 in 2 days? Anyway, last night's shot of the night was Cane and Abel: 2-2.5 oz rum, 1/2 can Red Bull® energy drink and it's in honor of Matt Cain. I'm actually proud of what I did there, screw you.

Cain threw 8 shutout innings to improve his record to 8-8. He allowed 3 hits and 3 walks but struck out 9. Cain is overshadowed by Tim Lincecum in San Francisco but I always thought he was an underrated pitcher. Turns out he's never had an xFIP under 4.22 and his BABIP is almost always way under .300. It makes him a pretty interesting case. He's either always lucky or his normal BABIP is actually closer to .275 than .300. Even when you remove fielding, he out performs his FIP every season. Can anybody smart out there explain why that is to me?

Honorable Mention: Cole Hamels
Hamels threw 8 innings of 1-hit, shutout ball but didn't get a decision. That would have never happened if Chase Utley was healthy. But luckily for the Phillies, Dom Brown should be on the way. Unfortunately for the Phillies, they'll have to move Jayson Werth instead of Raul Ibanez.

Our Required All Star Snubs Post

Derwood isn't a big fan of the All Star game or the Angels. So it makes perfect sense that he will be traveling to the Big A to watch the game this year while I sit at home and curse him under my breath. He also despises the All Star selection process but I find it fascinating and infuriating. So I'll be your guide through this Joey Votto/Jered Weaver fueled rant. Buckle up kids, it might get nerdy.

Joey Votto: This is the one everybody is up in arms over and it's deserved. All of Votto's counting stats are right there with Pujols. I know the players and especially Charlie Manuel aren't looking at advanced metrics but I sure am. In wOBA, Votto (.424) is crushing Pujols (.409) and more importantly Ryan Howard (.363). Don't like/understand wOBA? Everybody likes WAR and Votto (3.6) is still better than Pujols (3.1) and much better than Howard (1.2).

Votto is at least the best first baseman in the National League this season and deserves to be an All Star. But hey, Omar Infante and his 0.5 WAR might come in handy if you need a 5th short stop in the 14th inning. Actually, you'd probably be better off playing Votto at short stop and not even letting him take the field.

Jered Weaver: Obviously, this one bothered me the most. Weaver was asked to take over the ace role for the Angels and not only did he handle it, he has become one of the best pitchers in the league. Oh yeah, the All Star game is also in his home park.

As Keith Law pointed out yesterday, only 2 of the top 10 pitchers in WAR made the AL squad. But hey, if you look at FIP, 3 of the top 10 made it! Fine, don't like advanced metrics? Weaver leads the AL in strikeouts (124), 9th-ish in least walks (26), 6th in ERA (2.82) and his BABIP is a perfectly sustainable .299. I went a little nerdy there at the end, huh?

CC Sabathia: 1.9 WAR, 3.94 FIP, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks = All Star

Fransisco Liriano: I have him on my fantasy team and didn't realize how good of a season he's having. He leads the AL in WAR (4.2), FIP (2.10) and tied for 3rd in strikeouts (116). I might be crazy but I would rather have Liriano available to close a game than, oh say, Jose Valverde.

Kevin Youkilis: Shame on you Joe Girardi. Youk should be in there over A-Rod and especially over David Ortiz. Youkilis is easily one of the top 10 players in the AL if you look at any stat except for batting average (.299) but you have to get Jose Bautista (.236) in there.

Stephen Strasburg: I'm not calling him a snub so much as I have a problem with Evan Meek. Seriously, would you rather have Strasburg for an inning or Evan Meek. I'll save you the trouble of looking up which team Meek plays for, he's the Pirates lone rep. Simple solution: pull Corey Hart, plug in Andrew McCutchen, pull Meek and put in Strasburg. Everybody is a winner. Well, except for Meek and Hart.

Anybody but Omar Infante: *head explodes*

I could go on but I'd like to actually watch some baseball but I'll leave you with this...

Actual NL Lineup: C Yadier Molina, 1B Albert Pujols, 2B Chase Utley, 3B David Wright, SS Hanley Ramirez, OF Ryan Braun, OF Jason Heyward, Of Andre Ethier

WAR NL Lineup: C Brian McCann, 1B Joey Votto, 2B Chase Utley, 3B David Wright, SS Troy Tulowitzki, RF Andres Torres, CF Marlon Byrd, LF Matt Holliday

Actual AL Lineup: C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Evan Longoria, SS Derek Jeter, OF Ichiro, OF Josh Hamilton, OF Carl Crawford, DH Vlad Guerrero

WAR AL Lineup: C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Alex Gonzalez, RF Ichiro, CF Alex Rios, LF Carl Crawford, DH Vlad Guerrero