Showing posts with label arbitrary lists. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arbitrary lists. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

The 35 Year Old And Over Team

If I've learned anything from blogging, it's that people love lists. So I'm going to run out some lineups that fall in line with the arbitrary parameters that I have set. Yesterday we looked at the 25-year-old and younger team. Today's lineup consists of players who are 35-years-old or older by April 1st, 2011. The 2011 forecasts are courtesy of Bill James. Now, allow me to present to you the 2011 New York Yankees.

Catcher - Jorge Posada 8/17/1971
2010: 18 HR, .248/.357/.454, .357 wOBA, 2.4 WAR
2011: 16 HR, .260/.363/.454, .375 wOBA

Posada only started 78 games behind the dish in 2010 and will see considerably less time there in 2011 with the signing of Russell Martin and prospect Jesus Montero's already ready bat for the bigs. But my other choices were Rod Barajas and Bengie Molina. And I'd rather play one of those catch screens over Molina both for defense and offense. And base running.

First Base - Paul Konerko 3/5/1976
2010: 39 HR, .312/.393/.548, .425 wOBA, 4.2 WAR
2011: 32 HR, .273/.361/.496, .372 wOBA

Konerko turns 35 just before this season starts and turned in the second best season (per WAR) of his career in 2010. Konerko parlayed that season into a fresh 3-year, $37.5 million contract with the White Sox. I don't have a joke about the White Sox captain so I suggest you follow @OneyGullien for a good laugh.

Had Konerko not barely qualified, Derek Lee would have made the list since we share a birthday. Also born on September 6th, porn star Raven Riley.

Second Base - Adam Kennedy 1/10/1976
2010: 3 HR, .249/.327/.327, .303 wOBA, 1.0 WAR
2011: 4 HR, .264/.334/.354, .307 wOBA

Bill James might be a little generous with his projection here considering Kennedy only signed a minor league contract with the Mariners this off-season. I'll give Kennedy the nod here unless Joe Morgan is looking to fill his newly acquired free time. Kennedy ended up as the everyday second bagger in Washington after the Nats traded Christian Guzman to Texas before the deadline. He would flail away to that .303 wOBA which only Brandon Wood was in awe of.

Others receiving votes include Omar Vizquel (from The Golden Sombrero) and Tony Lazzeri (from our own Derwood). Lazzeri hit .273/.361/.417 in 1935 and I'm starting to think Derwood didn't understand the question.

Short Stop - Derek Jeter 6/26/1974
2009: 18 HR, .334/.406/.465, .390 wOBA, 7.1 WAR
2010: 10 HR, .270/.340/.370, .320 wOBA, 2.5 WAR
2011: 13 HR, .295/.365/.410, .344 wOBA

Jeter followed the second best season of his career in 2009 with his worst season in 2010. That earned him a new 3-year deal worth $51 million. Jeter will make roughly around $33 million more than Evan Longoria will make over the 6-year deal he signed in 2008. That seems just.

If you think I come off as a little bitter towards Jeter for no apparent reason, I present Exhibit A, B and C. I hate that guy.

Third Base - Alex Rodriguez 7/27/1975
2010: 30 HR, .270/.341/.506, .363 wOBA, 3.9 WAR
2011: 35 HR, .284/.381/.530, .393 wOBA

I assume you've heard of A-Rod by now. He's a pretty good baseball player when he's not yelling at cameramen for filming him eating popcorn at the Super Bowl.

The over 35-year-old third base club is pretty impressive with Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen rounding out this particular Hall of Fame bunch.

Right Field - Ichiro 10/22/1973
2010: 6 HR, 42 SB, .315/.359/.394, .338 wOBA, 4.8 WAR
2011: 7 HR, 30 SB, .316/.361/.391, .339 wOBA

Ichiro isn't showing any signs of slowing down as a 37-year-old and, compared to the other outfielders on this list, can still field his position.

Center Field - Torii Hunter 7/18/1973
2010: 23 HR, .281/.354/.464, .350 wOBA, 3.5 WAR
2011: 23 HR, .272/.340/.457, .346 wOBA

Hunter started 97 games in center in 2010 before being jettisoned to right field for Peter Bourjos' plus glove. Hunter could still man center if push came to shove but the Angels crapped on common sense by trading for Vernon Wells who would probably get the first shot at center if Bourjos' bat doesn't play.

Left Field - Manny Ramirez 5/30/1972
2010: 9 HR, .298/.409/.460, .382 wOBA, 1.6 WAR
2011: 23 HR, .290/.401/.503, .393 wOBA

Manny only played 46 games in left for the Dodgers in 2010 and will spend most of his time as the designated hitter for the Rays in 2011. But I'd rather deal with his drunken-hobo wandering in the outfield to get his bat in the lineup compared to whatever it is that Bobby Abreu does nowadays.

DH - Jim Thome 8/27/1970
2010: 25 HR, .283/.412/.627, .437 wOBA, 3.6 WAR
2011: 17 HR, .245/.384/.498, .384 wOBA

Every time I look up Thome's career stats, I'm stunned. This guy seems to have hit the quietest 589 home runs, .278 AVG, .404 OBP, .559 SLG, .407 wOBA and 73.5 WAR in baseball history.

My boy Vladimir Guerrero is the other option here but despite his resurgent 2010, he's still crippled from the waist down from playing on the painted concrete in Montreal.

Staff Ace - Chris Carpenter 4/27/1975
2010: 3.22 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 3.7 WAR
2011: 3.06 ERA, 3.27 FIP

Carpenter missed most of 2002 and then almost all (if not all) of 2003, 2007 and 2008. But when he is pitching, he's been fantastic. Carpenter would have been my pick here even if Andy Pettitte didn't retire. But I was really tempted to put Pettitte here and Scott Brosius at third and Chuck Knoblauch at second.

Closer - Mariano Rivera 11/29/1969
2010: 1.80 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.65 xFIP, 1.7 WAR
2011: 1.89 ERA, 2.52 FIP

At this point, I'm convinced that Mo Rivera will outlive us all and still be closing for the Yankees in the 2132 Galactic World Series. Strangely enough, Barry Bonds and Ted Williams' frozen head are also on that Yankee team.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

The 25 Year Old And Under Team

If I've learned anything from blogging, it's that people love lists. And get used to being poor. So I'm going to run out some lineups that fall in line with the arbitrary parameters that I have set. Today's lineup consists of players who are 25-years-old or younger by April 1st, 2011. The 2011 stats are Bill James' forecasts since Baseball Prospectus' pay wall is impossible to navigate around without any cash.

Catcher - Buster Posey 3/27/1987
2010: 18 HR, .305/.357/.505, .368 wOBA, 3.9 WAR
2011: 21 HR, .308/.370/.506, .380 wOBA

When the Giants finally shipped off Bengie Molina's 7 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, Posey took over the catching duties in San Fran and never looked back. He was the NL ROY and finished 11th in MVP voting while becoming a blog favorite here.

Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters both turn 25 this year and have bright futures, even if Wieters is fantasy kryptonite for me. But Posey is already a star and would be the face of the franchise if it wasn't for that dirty hippy.

First Base - Ike Davis 3/22/1987
2010: 19 HR, .264/.351/.440, .345 wOBA, 3.4 WAR
2011: 23 HR, .283/.374/.488, .377 wOBA

First base was a little tough considering Brandon Belt will probably replace Davis on next year's team. Davis gets the nod here because I wanted to give Mets fans a reason to step back from that ledge for a minute before the season starts. They'll probably be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in April.

Second Base - Gordon Beckham 9/16/1986
2009: 14 HR, .270/.347/.460, .351 wOBA, 2.2 WAR
2010: 9 HR, .252/.317/.378, .305 wOBA, 0.9 WAR
2011: 15 HR, .273/.343/.436, .338 wOBA

Which Beckham will show up in 2011? The only thing I can guarantee is that it won't be Tim. I still believe in Gordon but that was a disaster of a sophomore campaign. I also considered Sean Rodriguez but I'm still pretty bummed that he was the PTBNL in the Scott Kazmir deal.

Dustin Ackley and Jean Segura aren't that far away from bumping Beckham from his starting gig on this team though.

Short Stop - Starlin Castro 3/24/1990
2010: 3 HR, .300/.347/.408, .325 wOBA, 2.0 WAR
2011: 4 HR, .310/.359/.428, .343 wOBA

Considering Castro won't turn 21 until March, it looks like he has all of the goods to be a perennial All Star. That's the good news for Cubs fans. The bad news is they couldn't move Alfonso Soriano's chubby contract to the Angels. Yet.

Third Base - Evan Longoria 10/7/1985
2010: 22 HR, .294/.372/.507, .376 wOBA, 6.9 WAR
2011: 31 HR, .295/.379/.537, .397 wOBA

Not only is Longoria still just 25, he might already be the best player at his position in baseball. He's my way too early pick for AL MVP. Plus, he's signed to the most team friendly contract in the recent history of MLB. Add all of that together and you can see why stat super nerd Dave Cameron named Longoria the most (trade) valuable player in all the land.

Right Field - Jason Heyward 8/9/1989
2010: 18 HR, .277/.393/.456, .376 wOBA, 5.0 WAR
2011: 22 HR, .295/.411/.493, .395 wOBA

Heyward arrived with a massive cloud of hype surrounding him and didn't disappoint. Heyward finished in the top ten in OBP while playing the majority of the season as a 20-year-old rookie. The force is strong with this one. And to get on my good side, he even recorded a Platinum Sombrero on June 5th.

Remember Justin Upton? Yeah, me neither.

Center Field - Andrew McCutchen 10/10/1986
2010: 16 HR, 33 SB, .286/.365/.449, .363 wOBA, 3.3 WAR
2011: 16 HR, 33 SB, .287/.364/.445, .359 wOBA

Center field was a little tricky for me because I really like Colby Rasmus. But Tony LaRussa will find a way to play the corpse of Jim Edmonds or Jon Jay or a traffic cone in center instead of giving Rasmus the full time gig. McCutchen is also a lot of fun to watch which isn't something routinely said about the Pirates.

Left Field - Carlos Gonzalez 10/17/1985
2010: 34 HR, 26 SB, .336/.376/.598, .416 wOBA, 6.0 WAR
2011: 28 HR, 22 SB, .308/.357/.545, .390 wOBA

I slid CarGo into left because he did start 51 games there and posted his best UZR there compared to the other outfield spots. Sure his home-road splits hurt my feelings but he still had an amazing season in 2010 and crashed Albert Pujols' and Joey Votto's little Triple Crown race.

DH - Billy Butler 4/18/1986
2010: 15 HR, .318/.388/.469, .372 wOBA, 3.4 WAR
2011: 18 HR, .307/.377/.476, .373 wOBA

Butler is one of those players who seems like he should be much better than he is. He doesn't really have a position so his lack of power is disconcerting for a DH or even a first baseman. Unless you're the Angels. But he hits the gaps (6th in doubles in 2010) and has a solid OBP.

Staff Ace - Felix Hernandez 4/8/1986
2010: 2.27 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 6.2 WAR
2011: 3.31 ERA, 3.30 FIP

King Felix won his first Cy Young in his 6th year in the bigs as a 24-year-old. If he was on a different MLB team (not talking about you, Pittsburgh), we might be looking at the next/last pitcher who could get to 300 wins. At least voters are now looking past pitcher wins so Felix should be able to score a few more trophies. By trophies, I mean Cy Youngs just in case anybody confused the Mariners as a playoff team for the foreseeable future.

Closer - Neftali Feliz 5/2/1988
2010: 2.73 ERA, .2.96 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, 1.7 WAR
2011: 2.66 ERA, .2.97 FIP

I'm still in the "make Feliz a starter" camp but the Rangers don't reply to my emails and it seems like they're going to leave him in the closer role. He is fantastic there but they just lose too much value keeping him in the pen if he can start.