Brandon Wood Should File For Unemployment

Remember Brandon Wood? Wait, maybe we should start from the beginning. Remember 2003? It was 11 years ago so my memories might be fuzzy. I believe George Bush captured Saddam Hussien during a bicycle race in France for a cancer charity? And Guy Ritchie destroyed a once promising career by making Swept Away because Madonna became British. Also, the Angels selected Brandon Wood with the 23rd pick of the Rule 4 draft. In 2005, Wood hit 43 home runs for High A Rancho Cucamonga and entered 2006 as Baseball America's third overall prospect. It was a simpler time. And maybe breaking balls didn't exist in the minors yet.

It didn't go downhill immediately. Wood made his Major League debut in 2007 and hopes were still high. Then it fell apart. Brandon Wood ended up with 751 plate appearances in the Bigs and was last seen around Pittsburgh in 2011. Career slash? .186/.225/.289 with a 29% strikeout rate. It was ugly. And if this feels a bit like an obituary, it shouldn't. I have been one, if not the biggest, Brandon Wood supporter. I have proof. But if that slash line isn't baseball nightmare fuel enough, Wood just posted a .098/.156/.159 in 90 plate appearances at Independent League, Sugar Land. Mmmm, Sugar Land. Turns out the Sugar Land Skeeters are in Houston and not downtown Diabetesville, Mississippi. Either way, the Skeeters released Brandon Wood on June 1 according to this transaction page that apparently exists.

Now, I've never played competitive baseball but I assume getting cut from an Independent Baseball club is the equivalent to being kicked off of the beer league bowling team. That uses bumpers. At 29-years-old, being released from an Independent League team should signal the end of the career from a legit former prospect. It's sad. And disappointing. What's next? He should file for unemployment. According to a 2012 Baseball America article, Independent League players could make up to $600 per month. That's a lot of cans of tuna. Provided he moves back in with his parents.

While this news does make me sad, for serious, I'm looking forward to the savings Brandon Wood will be able to get me when I buy a new Kia Spectra if he makes it through the training period at that dealership.

Torii Hunter Is Getting Better At Twitter

Angels outfielder and all-around-good-guy Torii Hunter has been on Twitter for a while now (@ToriiHunter48) but he finally seems to be getting the hang of it. While he isn't going to be as controversial or fan friendly as the great Logan Morrison (@LoMoMarlins), Hunter appears to be posting more on the social network and he's finally sharing the good stuff. After the Angels split a rather disappointing four game series with the Mariners, Hunter settled in for the plane ride home and had this to share...


Kendrick is quietly enjoying the best season of his career with a .297/.351/.467 line and personal bests 14 home runs and a 5.3 fWAR (Fangraphs wins above replacement). And he might be closing in on a career high HSIM (hot sauce in mouth). But he seems to be upbeat about it...


Zing!


Oh no he din't. I kid but this exchange is actually funnier than any "My Wife and Kids" episode you're watching on ABC Family right now.

Mike Trout Had An Eventful Day

On Tuesday, the Angels announced they will send baseball wunderkind Mike Trout to play in the Arizona Fall League after their season concludes. This wasn't surprising news as many of the game's top prospects extend their season by playing in the AFL but Trout's destination added to the anticipation. Trout will be roaming the same Scottsdale Scorpions outfield as fellow phenom Bryce Harper giving the defending AFL champions the top two prospects in baseball. While the news is exciting, it was Trout's play on Tuesday night that left me breathing into a paper bag.

Trout got one of his occasional starts against Seattle Mariners southpaw Anthony Vasquez and made the most of it. In the second inning, Trout crushed a 3-2 changeup 408 feet for a solo home run and followed that up by hitting an outside curve out of the park for a three-run home run in the fourth inning. His next plate appearance wasn't nearly as dramatic as he drew a bases-loaded walk for his fifth RBI of the night.

Since being recalled from Double-A, Trout has only been able to rack up 25 plate appearances and Angels fans are clamoring for more. Albeit a very small sample size, Trout is hitting .409/.480/1.000 with four home runs during his second tour of the majors. Unfortunately for Trout, Vernon Wells is hitting .400/.471/.700 over the same stretch in an attempt to dissuade management from euthanizing him.

Of course, Trout's hot hitting could force the Angels hand as they desperately need an offensive spark down the stretch. The Angels remain 3.5 games behind the Rangers with about a month to go. If Trout stays hot and can somehow carry the Angels to the postseason, his name will likely be one of the first removed from AFL participation.

Either way, I have a fever and there's only one cure for it. More Mike Trout.

Abreu Shows Signs Of Life Against Former Team

It was starting to look like Bobby Abreu had completely given up on hitting. Going into last night's game, Abreu had posted a .155/.263/.233 line since the beginning of July with five extra base hits and 15 hitless games, earning the Brandon Wood nod of approval. But then on Tuesday night, if only briefly, Abreu knocked some of the rust of for an important game against his former team and wild card leading New York Yankees.

Abreu went 2-5 with two home runs (and two strikeouts but I'm trying to be nice here) to power the Angels to a 6-4 win over the Yankees. He hit his fifth home run of the season in the sixth inning off of A.J. Burnett and then hit his sixth homer, more impressively, in the ninth inning against Mariano Rivera. It was the first game in August that Abreu posted a positive WPA (win probability added).

I'm by no means suggesting Abreu is turning some kind of corner here because he still looks cooked. The .103 ISO (isolated power) is the lowest of his career and, unsurprisingly, he's on pace for career lows in doubles and home runs. And since he has the mobility of a light pole in the outfield, Abreu is a fixture at DH providing negative lineup flexibility. His $9 million 2012 option has already vested but that's future me's problem to complain about. In the meantime, Angels fans will just have to hope Abreu manages to sprinkle a few games like yesterday in with his 0-fers.

Weaver Raises Bar For Cy Young

Jered Weaver set a tough pace for his AL Cy Young competition to keep up with this weekend. Sure, it didn't hurt that he pitched against the Triple-A offense of the Seattle Mariners on Friday night. The Mariners have baseball's worst .280 team wOBA (weighted on base average) which is a full 10 points behind the next closest terrible team. It doesn't even look like the joke of a lineup the Astros are running out can catch the Mariners in futility this year and they're led by 5'3 Jose Altuve.

But back to Weaver, he pitched nine shutout innings allowing seven hits and one walk to eight strikeouts. He failed to pick up the win due to his own team's inept offense. Weaver leads the league with his 1.78 ERA and 2.58 FIP (fielding independent pitching). His 5.5 fWAR (Fangraphs wins above replacement) is just a shade, maybe one start, behind Justin Verlander's 5.7 and CC Sabathia's 5.9.

Sabathia had the roughest outing of the trio but he also had the most difficult matchup. Boston has his number this season and lit the big man up over six innings for seven runs on nine hits. On the opposing mound, John Lackey surprisingly managed to make it through six innings without giving up double digit runs, a feat Kyle Davies didn't know was possible. Speaking of Kansas City (awesome segue, me), I was stunned Verlander didn't take a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Royals. In fact, Verlander only went seven innings giving up three runs on five hits with eight strikeouts.

Up next... Weaver dropped the appeal for his six game suspension after his temper and a fastball in the direction of Alex Avila's head got away from him last week. He will miss the Yankees series and be back on the mound Saturday in Toronto. The Blue Jays lineup is certainly no cupcake and even tougher in their hitter friendly home park.

Sabathia will toe the rubber at home against the Rays on Friday night and Verlander will be on the road in Cleveland to throw against the Indians on Thursday.

Weaver Loses Temper, Verlander Loses No-Hitter

Sunday's Angels-Tigers game lived up to its hype. Billed as a pitchers duel between two of the AL's best, it fell just shy of pistols from becoming an actual duel. Both Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander entered the day with a 5.1 fWAR, good for second in the American League. Weaver and Verlander were also in the top four in ERA, FIP and WPA. But those will all be topics for a future post, this is about one day game and what happened close to the chalk lines.

The excitement started in the bottom of the third inning. After Weaver managed to somehow put Don Kelly on base with a walk, Magglio Ordonez hit a hanging change-up 388 feet. Ordonez watched the ball stay fair for the two-run home run. Weaver took exception to the time it took Ordonez to leave the batter's box and shot him a combo stink/evil eye as he rounded the bases. Weaver shook it off and retired the next 12 Tigers he faced.

Fast forwarding to the bottom of the seventh inning, Weaver surrendered a solo home run to Carlos Guillen. Guillen, unlike Ordonez earlier, deliberately showed up the Angels ace by watching the homer, flipping his bat and turning toward Weaver during a sideways trot to first. Home Plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt went to the mound in an attempt to cool off the visibly upset Weaver and issued warnings to both benches. Cooler heads would prevail until Weaver's very next pitch.


Weaver threw over Mike Avila's head and began walking off the mound and yelling at Guillen in the dugout before Wendelstedt could make the ejection motion. I certainly don't condone a pitcher throwing at another player's head and I'm afraid a suspension is looming. Personally I choose to believe that pitch got away from Weaver and wasn't meant for Avila's head. I don't cheer for retaliation.


Oh, right.

In the meantime, Verlander was just tossing another no-hitter through seven innings. Still 3-0, Erick Aybar led of the eighth inning with a "violation of the unwritten rules of no-hitter decency" bunt. Verlander fielded it, threw it away and got the benefit of some home cooking from the scorer. Ruled an error, Verlander kept his no-hitter in tact. Mark Trumbo grounded Aybar to third and then Aybar would score on a bizarre fielder's choice/rundown between third and home. Howie Kendrick struck out before Maicer Izturis broke up the no-hitter with a liner into left field.

Verlander had some choice words for Aybar which seemed to indicate a fastball has Ayabar's name on it next time around. Jose Valverde closed the game to give the Tigers a 3-2 win. Now for some post game quotes courtesy of ESPN.com...

"I had a lot of respect for those guys, but then they stand at the plate and do something like that," Weaver said. "I'm not going to try to hit someone, but what Guillen did crossed the line."

See? Told you guys he wasn't trying to hit Avila.

"I don't hit many homers anymore, and I wanted to make sure that it stayed fair," Ordonez said. "After that, he was yelling at me to run faster, and I told him that I'm old -- that's as fast as I run.

"I'm not going to show anyone up. That's not me."

Funny and true.

"Magglio has 14 years in the major leagues," said Guillen, one of Ordonez's closest friends. "You don't tell him to run. I respect people when they respect us. If you don't respect us, you don't get it."

Guillen defending respect with one asshole action after another.

"I know it was only 3-0, so I can understand there are arguments on both sides. But as a pitcher, we call that bush league," he (Verlander) said. "I think he was trying to get his team back into the game, but I also think it was a response to things that had happened before."

Blame that respectmonger Guillen.

"That's my game -- I don't have power," he (Aybar) said. "(Verlander) told me he'd get me next year, and I said that was OK."

While true, Aybar has more home runs this season than Ordonez and Guillen combined. It was a little dick-ish. Awesome. And a little dick-ish.

And then Torii Hunter summed it all up.

"That was stupid -- it was all stupid. Everybody was stupid," he said. "That was unprofessional on both sides."

Maybe. Or best game of the season.

PECOTA Doesn't Love The Angels

This is nothing new, of course, since the Angels routinely outperform their expected winning percentage under Mike Scioscia. Despite winning 14 of 17 and only being one win over their expected record entering the break, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA still doesn't give the Halos much of a chance to make the playoffs in the Reset Odds piece on ESPN.com (Insider required). The new projections give the Angels an 18.4% to make the postseason (17.9 for the division, 0.5 wild card) which is actually up 5.2% from the preseason round of nerd math.

Obviously, the landscape could change quite a bit over the next two weeks before the July 31st trade deadline. The Angels have already called upon top prospect Mike Trout but his role on the team remains unclear once Peter Bourjos returns from a hamstring injury. As far as turning to the trade market, the rumors vary wildly. ESPN LA's Mark Saxon heard from a source that the Angels will be "pinching pennies" which makes some sense after they took on one of baseball's most lucrative and absurd contracts in Vernon Wells this off-season.

On the other side of the spectrum, NBC New York tries to make a case for Carlos Beltran getting shipped to Orange County. It seems highly unlikely that the Angels would take on that kind of salary even with the Mets kicking in some cash. Finding room in the lineup for Beltran is even more problematic with Bourjos, Wells, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu sharing outfield and DH duties and that's without even trying to get Trout more time.

The trade rumor I could actually get on board with was brought up in a recent Jonah Keri article for ESPN.com (Insider required). Keri suggested the Angels could give up a pair of pitching prospects for San Diego closer Heath Bell. A bullpen stocked with Bell, Scott Downs and Jordan Walden added to aces Jered Weaver and Dan Haren is a formula that tends to do well in October. If Bell isn't re-signed, he figures to be a Type A free agent and would get the Angels a couple more picks in the 2012 draft.

The Angels could also just benefit from improved in-house play like more production from Vernon Wells and less playing time for Jeff Mathis. Wells can't be as bad as his current .222/.248/.409 line suggests even if Fangraphs ZiPS projection for the rest of the season (.252/.298/.430) isn't that much better. Meanwhile, Mathis (.195/.241/.286) is every bit as terrible as he usually is but Scioscia keeps running him out there just in case Mathis has some incriminating photos of the skipper.

The bottom line is that the AL West is a very winnable division for the Angels, especially with Weaver and Haren anchoring the rotation. I just don't understand why PECOTA gives the Rangers an 80.5% chance to win the West but I'm no scientist regardless of what I might tell women in bars. By the way, "race car driver" works much better than "scientist."

Jered Weaver Expected To Start All Star Game

Jered Weaver was informed Sunday morning that he will start the All Star Game on Tuesday night for the American League squad. The official announcement won't be made until Monday which leaves plenty of time for Weaver to back out. With the recent rash of replacements, I think the only Major League pitcher who hasn't been on the All Start roster yet is Kyle Davies. But I hope Weav sticks with it as he'll be just the fifth Angels pitcher to start an ASG and the first since Mark Langston in 1993.

Weaver deserves it too whether you want to look at box score stats or advanced metrics. In the AL, he's first in ERA (1.86), second in wins (11), second in innings (140.1) and fifth in strikeouts (120). Plus he's first in FIP (2.39), tERA (2.36) and WAR (4.7). Sure, I cherry picked those stats but Weaver is still having a phenomenal season. Even with some regression from career bests in LOB% (81.2) and HR/FB% (2.7!), Weaver is still well on his way to topping his career high 5.9 WAR from last year. He can also expect a nice bump in salary as he heads into his last season of arbitration. That's a frightening post for another time though.

Weaver and manager Mike Scioscia are prohibited from discussing the announcement until it is actually, well, announced. But Weav was asked about it after his last start...

Asked after Thursday night's win about the possibility of starting the All-Star game, Weaver said, "It would be very cool. I’ve grown up seeing Pedro Martinez and Roger Clemens, guys like that, in those situations. To be able to start would be very gratifying.”

Sorry, I dozed off during that quote. I get sleepy reading cookie cutter answers to questions even if it's from my favorite players. I don't know what I was expecting him to say. MLB and management seem to frown upon athletes saying "F*ck yeah, bro, that'd be the tits" on live broadcasts or to media outlets. Maybe that's why I'm so fond of Ozzie Guillen and his broken English tirades.

Either way, congrats Jered. You deserve it.

Promoted: The Angels Call Up Mike Trout

Baseball fans will no longer have to wait until Sunday's Futures Game to watch top prospect Mike Trout roam an outfield. After incumbent center fielder Peter Bourjos injured his hamstring turning a double into a triple, the Angels decided to call up Trout from double-A Arkansas. As both an Angels and prospects fan, I can't even begin to describe how excited I am. It's somewhere between "wheeeee!" and "had to be checked into a mental institute." But today isn't about me and the last few shreds of sanity I have left, it's about a 19-year-old kid who is better at baseball than anything you do. Nobody is really impressed with your Excel skills anyway.

Trout's prospect ranking ranges anywhere from #1 overall (Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo) to #2 (Baseball America). The Angels made Trout the 25th pick in the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft and the New Jersey native wasted no time raking right away in rookie ball. Trout, who won't turn 20 until August, began this year at double-A and has backed up all of his believers. Trout is hitting .330/.422/.544 with 9 home runs, 12 doubles, 11 triples and 28 stolen bases. While he isn't as polished on defense as Bourjos in center, Trout does match him in speed and figures to be a plus defender.

The Angels aren't expecting to place Bourjos on the disabled list so it's unclear what the Angels will do with Trout after the All Star break. Of course if he hits like the reincarnation of Mickey Mantle, it won't be much of a decision. But it is hard to expect that kind of immediate impact from anyone, let alone a teenager. I've been know to dabble in delusion from time to time and since I'm blinded with excitement, I fully expect Trout to hit and stick in the Majors. Mike Scioscia loves the kid (let's face it, who doesn't?) and won't let him go if there is a chance Trout can help the Angels win the West. If he is sent down, it would likely be to the taxi squad triple-A Salt Lake team.

Trout will wear #27, last worn by fan favorite and future Hall of Famer Vlad Guerrero. It's fitting in a passing of the torch sense. But, you know, no pressure kid.

Check back this weekend for more Trout coverage. Unless he hits a home run in his first at bat. I'll probably spontaneously combust under those circumstances.

The Brandon Wood Era Ends In Anaheim

On the heels of a 15-4 routing of the Texas Rangers, Tuesday night saw the sad conclusion to Brandon Wood's career as a Halo. In order for the Angels to clear a roster spot, Wood was designated for assignment. With Wood out of options in Anaheim, the Angels have 10 days to trade, release or place him on waivers. Despite Wood's heartbreaking failure at the major league level, a player with his pedigree and minor league track record will almost assuredly be granted a flier by another organization. A notion that Mike Scioscia was well aware of...

"It was tough, a tough decision," Scioscia said. "He's one of our guys. We just have no way out of this right now. There's no roster flexibility.

"He needs to go play and establish his career. We'll be proud of him when it happens. ... We all had high expectations for what he was going to do when he got his chance at the major-league level but it just didn't happen. Baseball wasn't fun for Brandon last year and it isn't fun for him right now.

"It needs to be fun for him again and it will be. We just don't have the development at-bats he needs at the major-league level."

I'm willing to accept, even if it's begrudgingly, that what Scioscia said is true. Wood was finally given the keys to the third base job in 2010 and posted a .146/.174/.208 line which still gives me furious bouts of night terrors. While I see no reason to carry three catchers on the roster or nary a reason to even employ Jeff Mathis, Erick Aybar's return from the DL gave the Angels too many infielders and Wood's 8 strike outs in 15 plate appearances weren't doing him any favors.

The Angels simply could not afford to keep running Wood out there to flail away at off speed pitches if they want to compete for the AL West crown. Wood, a first round pick in 2003 and crusher of minor league pitching, may be a guy who needs that change of scenery to rejuvenate a once bright career. Or, maybe, he's another failed Angels prospect cut out of the Dallas McPhearson mold. I'm hoping for the former since I have more of an emotional attachment to Wood after rooting for him for seven years. I'm also, ever so slightly, financially invested in him after deciding this would be the appropriate year to sponsor his Baseball-Reference page.

And maybe it was. Over the next 10 days, I expect quite a few teams and fans to be kicking the proverbial tires on Wood. So to all of you new Brandon Wood hopefuls, remember I have a B-R sponsorship for sale. It's only slightly used but it's afraid of curves and doesn't recognize when stuff is slowing down. Hit me up if you're interested.

I do wish Brandon all the luck in the world even though it feels like I just eulogized him. Now that the pressure of being the future of the Angels is off of his back, he can get back to enjoying baseball.

Peter Bourjos' Golden Sombrero

A golden sombrero is awarded to a player who manages to strike out four times in a single game (real golden sombrero not included). It's quite the feat unless you're Ryan Howard or Mark Reynolds. Unfortunately, no-hitters and Brian Wilson's beard are all the rage nowadays. Not for me, though. I will pour over the box scores to bring you the finest at swinging and missing.

Peter Bourjos is pure fun to watch play center field. Even when he doesn't get a good jump or read, his speed allows him to make difficult catches look effortless. Unfortunately, he has almost no reason to even take a bat to any of his plate appearances. In 193 PA in 2010, Bourjos hit .204/.237/.381 but Mike Scioscia saw enough improvement in his 2011 .220/.267/.390 line to go ahead and bat him leadoff.

How'd it go, you ask? Dammit, I have to stop giving away the answers to these questions in the post title. He went 0-5 with 4 strikeouts. Let's go to the lowlights...

Bottom 1st: Bourjos struck out looking against Carlos Carrasco. You want your leadoff hitter to see some pitches. Bourjos watched three straight go right past him.

Bottom 3rd: Bourjos struck out swinging against Carrasco. Three straight balls followed by three straight strikes. The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of plate appearances, if you will.

Bottom 5th: Bourjos struck out swinging against Carrasco.

Bottom 8th: Bourjos struck out swinging against Vinnie Pestano in three pitches. Look at who didn't even need those three extra innings to record a Golden Sombrero. And for that, we salute you.

Josh Hamilton Hits The DL After 11 Games

If you had Josh Hamilton in your "first Ranger to hit the disabled list" pool, please step up and collect your prize. Hamilton was injured in a collision with Tigers catcher Victor Martinez in a head first collision at home. The MRI revealed less than pleasant results for the red hot Rangers...

Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said an MRI exam Tuesday afternoon on Josh Hamilton's injured right shoulder revealed a broken bone at the top of his shoulder. The Rangers plan to place Hamilton on the DL and expect him to miss at least six weeks, but are planning for eight.

The reigning AL MVP was off to a good enough start, hitting .316/.395/.395 but with nary a home run. PECOTA wasn't expecting another MVP season for Hamilton, projecting only 22 homers and a .294/.356/.509 line over 515 plate appearances. All of those numbers are now in jeopardy.

The injury is an obvious blow to the Rangers who will have to plug David Murphy into the outfield and recall Chris Davis to be the designated striker-outer. Whatever projection you prefer, replacing a .400-ish wOBA player for two months is a daunting task. Luckily for the Rangers, the other teams in the AL West have their own issues to deal with. But it would make me slightly more optimistic about the Angels chances if it wasn't for their bullpen and lineup.

Scott Kazmir's Fall From Glory

Scott Kazmir turned in 1.2 innings of something wildly opposite of pitching Sunday. Kazmir gave up five runs on five hits while walking two and hitting two. I cried thrice. This is the fifth straight start (dating back to 9/14) that Kazmir wasn't able to make it to the sixth inning. How can this be the same guy who had a sub 3.50 ERA, over 160 strikeouts and fewer than 90 walks each season from 2006-2008?

I don't pretend to be a scout (after my terrible overdrafting of Donald Jenson in the 2003 Wiffle Ball draft in Fulton County) but it appears that Kazmir is currently throwing the straightest fastball possible. Kazmir's K/9 ratio dipped by over two strikeouts per nine from 2008 to 2009 and then almost another two strikeouts from 2009 to 2010. Accordingly, his home run rate and fly ball percentage have also seen a rise since his former peak years.

Just about every stat is trending in the wrong direction for Kazmir who turned 27-years-old in January. It's hard to imagine that a successful pitcher could completely fall apart by his prime years without suffering a major injury. But that's where we stand. Now what can the Angels do with an ineffective left-handed starter collecting $12 million?

1. Waive him.
This is the "eat the cash to avoid the headaches" option. It may force its hand sooner than later. I assume trading him isn't a viable option since Omar Minaya is no longer a general manager.

2. Deal with it.
Twelve million dollars is tough to swallow while admitting you aren't good at your job. So Tony Reagins might just have to buy a Costco-size assortment of Tums and suffer through every fifth day. It's not like the bullpen is doing him any favors anyway.

3. Rebuild him.
We have the technology. And robot Kazmir can't be any worse.

Off Base Now Proudly Sponsors Brandon Wood's Baseball-Reference Page

As many of you now by now, I am an Angels fan. I've been a Brandon Wood supporter for a long time now even though his at bats in the majors have been less than inspiring. In fact, his 2010 .146/.174/.208 line still keeps me up at night. And at 26-years-old, I figure this will be the make-or-break season even though I realize a "bust" label is already justified. But with a little disposable income on my hands thanks to the several dollars a month this blog brings in, I figured this was my chance to bet on Wood one last time.

Wood, the 23rd overall pick in 2003, appeared to be the future middle order of the line-up short stop for the Halos. He was ranked as the third best prospect in baseball by Baseball America before the 2006 season after absolutely crushing minor league pitching. He officially stuck with the Angels last season and promptly forgot how to hit that white thing with that piece of wood.

I wish I could say that his 2011 Spring Training was showing signs of encouragement but Wood is only hitting .205/.225/.462 in 39 at bats. PECOTA has Wood projected for 21 home runs, 123 strike outs and a .246/.300/.442 line which is starting to look awfully optimistic. So we plan on pretty much using that advertising space on Wood's Baseball-Reference page to make fun of him. Sorry bud, I am rooting for you but this is the Off Base way. Be sure to check out the Brandon Wood page for our jokes until we cross a line and B-R revokes my account.

Mike Trout Is Changing His Phone Number

Future Hall of Famer and current Angels prospect Mike Trout caught his first dose of pranking on Monday. While some of the details are being kept under wraps, it appears that Trout broke an unwritten rule during the morning meetings and was punished accordingly.

After the top of the first inning of Monday’s game between the Angels and A’s, Trout’s phone number was splashed all over the scoreboard at Tempe Diablo Stadium with an invitation.

“Fans call Angels’ Mike Trout directly with your baseball questions,” said the message which was repeated several times throughout the game.

Unfortunately, I don't know any of the 2,822 attendees so I wasn't privy to Trout's digits. And I had some hard hitting questions for him like "Why are you so awesome?" and "Do they still make panzarottis in New Jersey?"

Trout apparently crossed a "no speaking unless spoken to" rule during a bout of Mike Scioscia team building exercises. It seems the offended party was staff ace Jered Weaver...

“Weave got him good,” Angels outfielder Peter Bourjos said, Trout admonishing from across the room not to give away too much — “Outfielders stick together,” Trout pleaded.

The 19-year-old Trout probably won't crack the big league roster unless he gets a cup of coffee in September. So the real rookie hazing won't get super ridiculous until next March.

Side note: Baseball Prospectus 2011 Almanac has Mickey Mantle listed as one of Trout's comparables. So, he's got that going for him.

Brandon Wood Turns To Yankees For Help

Brandon Wood was finally given the keys to third base by the Angels in 2010 and he crashed that thing into an elementary school. I think a case could be made that Wood's 2010 season was a more tragic event than the Chilean miners getting trapped. They at least got ice cream. Wood posted a .146/.174/.208 line in 243 plate appearances and had more than a few at bats that brought tears to my eyes.

Wood was awful in every aspect of hitting. He walked at a 2.5% clip and struck out over 30% of the time. So Wood turned to Yankees hitting instructor Kevin Long for some help...

"He's an Arizona guy who gave me some encouragement last year, who I got to know through small talk, and I wanted to hear his philosophy on hitting," Wood said of Long. "Hitting is like golf. How many ways can you do it and be successful? There’s a lot of different ways; you have to find the one that works for you."

Wood, in camp for the Angels' first full-squad workout Saturday but slowed by a minor back injury, incorporated some of Long's suggestions into his winter batting-practice sessions and said he has a much better feel for his swing.

As an Angels fan, I don't care if Wood turned to the Yankees, Jobu, Yoda or the Batting Stance Guy for help as long as it produces even a modicum of success in 2011. I don't have high hopes though. It's sad to think that a 2011 breakout performance for a major leaguer would be hoping he improves to a .280 OBP.

Weaver Isn't Bummed About Making $7.365M

The Angels poor off-season continued into Spring Training with the news that Kendry Morales still isn't running at 100% and is questionable to start the season. And too a lesser extent, it appears that Maicer Izturis and his .321 on base percentage from 2010 will be leading off. But there is some good news for my Angels fan brethren. Jered Weaver wasn't fazed by losing his arbitration case...

"It was interesting – kind of fun in a way," said Weaver who attended the four-hour hearing in Arizona Wednesday, listening as both sides made their cases. The arbitrator sided with the Angels and their $7.365 million offer. (Weaver had sought $8.8 million.)

"It wasn't like sitting in math class where I wasn't paying attention. It was interesting. It's one of those things I wish I didn't have to do. But the game has become very business-oriented and the biggest thing I learned is that business is business."

*snip*

"I would love to play with the Angels for a long time and I think they know that," Weaver said. "But that (contract talks) is not something I want hanging over head during the season."

Of course, what is Weaver supposed to say there? And I'm sure he wouldn't mind spending more of his career in Orange County but the problem isn't necessarily with Weaver. Arte Moreno and the Angels have declared war against Weaver's agent, the diabolical Scott Boras.

The Angels have one more bout of arbitration left next year if they can't get a long term deal completed with Weaver. And with all of his metrics headed in the right direction, Boras could demand a Felix Hernandez-esque extension or probably make more by taking him to free agency.

I remember when the only headaches I got from being an Angels fan were due to those damn thunder sticks.

Why Is Vlad Guerrero Still Homeless?

Vladimir Guerrero is coming off of a rebound season in 2010 hitting 29 home runs and a .300/.345/.496 slash line. But he was signed to just a one-year deal with Texas and now he's stuck in free agency limbo while the market dries up around him. Guerrero doesn't have many potential landing spots remaining since he didn't opt for the Six Million Dollar Man surgery and runs like an arthritic deer on ice. I love Vladdy but watching him play the outfield in the World Series was embarrassing for everyone involved.

The Orioles seem like the most logical destination because, well, they have officially offered Vlad a deal. The O's are standing pat and aren't willing to budge from their $4.5-5 million offer. But, Buster Olney reported that the famous mystery team has surfaced...

The Vladimir Guerrero talks will gather some momentum in the next 48 hours, one way or another. The Orioles have an offer on the table; last week, Guerrero's side informed them that they had an offer worth $8 million in play. It's not clear which team would have made the $8 million offer.

In this case, I'm inclined to believe the mystery team is actually a figment of the Guerrero camp's imagination. MLB Trade Rumors identified four potential fits for the 35-year-old DH in the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels. It's hard to imagine any of those teams offering $8 million for what would basically have to be a part time designated hitter.

If you take a closer look at his bounce back 2010 numbers, there's cause for more trepidation in offering Vlad a lucrative deal. All you have to do is look at his splits. So maybe the Angels would offer him $8 million and perhaps a couple of extra years to boot.

Vlad has always crushed the ball in Arlington and that certainly gave his 2010 season a boost.

Split	PA	H	2B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	336	98	16	16	.315	.354	.527	.881
Away	307	80	11	13	.284	.336	.461	.796

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/3/2011.

He gave up 31 points of batting average, 18 points of on base percentage and 66 points of slugging percentage. It's not the worst split I've ever seen but it's not an encouraging sign for an aging hitter.

Split	PA	H	2B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	354	103	14	20	.319	.364	.554	.919
2nd Half	289	75	13	9	.278	.322	.426	.748

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/3/2011.

Vlad also tired down the stretch and hit .220/.242/.271 in the playoffs. Splitting time might keep him fresher but surely $8 million is too much to pay for a part time hitter.

Let's take a quick look at the projections for Vlad which assume he's going to be an everyday DH.

Bill James
586 PA, 26 HR, .304/.363/.505, .373 wOBA

MARCEL
562 PA, 22 HR, .284/.335/.466, .345 wOBA

James seems high but let's split the difference and call Vlad a .360 wOBA hitter as a full time DH. That would be exactly what his wOBA was in 2010 when he was a 2.6 WAR player. That would make him worth about $10 million for 2011. But as I said, if he signs anywhere but Baltimore, he is likely to be a part time hitter.

The $8 million offer would make sense for one team but, unfortunately for me, that team hasn't been thinking clearly this off-season. Dave Cameron suggested that the Angels sign Vlad but his reasoning makes too much sense for the Halo's front office. The Angels could get some nice production from Guerrero at DH but, more importantly, his playing time could prevent Bobby Abreu's 2012 option from vesting. It's almost too good to be true like a magical clause that could void Vernon Wells' contract.

My guess is that this plays out for another few days and the Orioles kick it up to around $6 million and sign him.

Vernon Wells Is An Upgrade From Juan Rivera, Right?

Yesterday I took a look at Mike Napoli vs Vernon Wells as hitters. And while this isn't becoming an Angels blog, it does seem like I have an awful lot to write about them lately. I think the guys over at the Orange County Register are egging me on though. Dan Woike recently wondered "Was Angels' Juan Rivera That Bad?" I'm not sure what his answer was because I'm allergic to slideshows but it did get me thinking.

How much better is Wells compared to Rivera? It's a little easier to compare the two since they're both 32-year-old outfielders. And Wells has a clear advantage in Wins Above Replacement because Rivera has the mobility of a wounded pylon (except for his outlying 2009 season). Click image to embiggen.



In terms of overall value, Wells is clearly the superior player even with him, hopefully, moving to left field. But in pure hitting terms, you might as well flip a coin. Yes, I am still using wOBA and, as always, click to enlarge.



These aren't especially comforting graphs for Angels fans. Now, I'm not saying Rivera is close to the player that Wells is because he isn't. I'd much rather have Wells than Rivera in a vacuum but we can't ignore the Wells contract.

Could the Angels have suffered through a Bobby Abreu/Juan Rivera left field and found better production from a Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon designated hitter? If we turn a blind eye to defense for this experiment, I think the answer is yes. Plus that assortment of players could have just been a place holder until Mike Trout arrives.

Of course, this has just become a "could have, should have" exercise for me at this point. Actual results may vary.

Mike Napoli Versus Vernon Wells And It's Not Pretty

An insufferable amount of words have been written about how bad the Vernon Wells trade was from the Angels aspect. We get it. The contract is an albatross, Wells is a 32-year-old declining outfielder, his splits last year were a nightmare of Freddy Krueger proportions, Tony Reagins has a drinking problem, et cetera, et cetera... I know it hasn't been completely lost in the shuffle but the Angels also traded away the best hitter in this deal.

The fallacy I keep hearing from Angels fans is that Mike Napoli wasn't one of Mike Scioscia's "guys" or he wasn't wanted in Anaheim or he wasn't going to get playing time anyway or the Angels didn't want to pay him the $6 million or so he was going to win in arbitration. Maybe, but by trading Napoli, the Angels made the Blue Jays better and themselves considerably worse. The Angels will go into 2011 with Jeff Mathis, a career .199/.265/.311* hitter, as their starting catcher. But this post isn't about how bad Mathis is, and he is bad, it's about how underrated Napoli is compared to Wells.

*I accidentally copied Mathis' OBP/SLG/OPS line first and thought we were all terribly misinformed. Then I realized I missed the actual AVG/OBP/SLG line and Mathis is worse than I ever imagined.

I don't think the majority of people do realize that Napoli has been a better hitter than Wells over the past three or four seasons and will probably continue to be so over the duration of Wells' cashrific contract. For illustrative purposes, let's take a look at the career Weighted On Base Averages (wOBA) for Napoli and Wells. For those new to wOBA, you can read about it here. Click image to enlarge.



As you can see, Napoli has had a higher wOBA for each season since 2007 except for 2010. The Wells supporters like to point at the bounce back season of 2010 hoping it is an encouraging sign for things to come. Unfortunately, Wells' big 2010 season was aided by a massive power spike in Toronto.

	Park Factors HR Rates
Year	Angels Stadium	Rogers Center
2010	0.825	1.358
2009	1.22	0.99
2008	0.933	0.926

So I would caution any Angels fans who are hoping Wells will be bringing 30 home run power to Anaheim. Wells has as good a chance of repeating his 2010 season as I do being Scarlett Johansson's rebound. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong in both cases.

The other concern about Wells is his splits. He hasn't hit lefties over the past two seasons and was atrocious on the road last year. Napoli isn't going to hit for a high average and he struggled with right handers this past season but absolutely crushes southpaws. He is also a pretty consistent hitter at home or on the road.

	Vernon Wells
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	27 HR .291/.342/.553	4 HR .195/.289/.354	20 HR .321/.363/.628	11 HR .227/.301/.407
2009	12 HR .278/.322/.425	3 HR .206/.279/.323	8 HR .214/.285/.348	7 HR .300/.335/.444
2008	18 HR .290/.328/.509	2 HR .333/.394/.455	11 HR .296/.347/.502	9 HR .304/.339/.490

	Mike Napoli
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	16 HR .208/.277/.423	10 HR .305/.399/.567	13 HR .240/.324/.480	13 HR .237/.307/.456
2009	14 HR .251/.325/.453	6 HR .337/.422/.611	10 HR .230/.332/.480	10 HR .308/.365/.514
2008	16 HR .270/.364/.590	4 HR .286/.406/.571	10 HR .250/.356/.542	10 HR .299/.394/.636

I would love to be wrong about Wells but the numbers suggest he's on the decline and has lost the ability to hit left handed pitching. His spike last season was a clear product of the Rogers Center becoming a hitters park for 2010. I doubt this is one of those "change of scenery will do him good" scenarios. But who knows, maybe the Angels have the Fountain of Youth hidden in the outfield rocks.

Napoli, on the other hand, is poised for a big 2011 season and won't cost the Jays the price of a small island.

As an Angels fan, it isn't fun being the bearer of doom and gloom.