Vernon Wells Is An Upgrade From Juan Rivera, Right?

Yesterday I took a look at Mike Napoli vs Vernon Wells as hitters. And while this isn't becoming an Angels blog, it does seem like I have an awful lot to write about them lately. I think the guys over at the Orange County Register are egging me on though. Dan Woike recently wondered "Was Angels' Juan Rivera That Bad?" I'm not sure what his answer was because I'm allergic to slideshows but it did get me thinking.

How much better is Wells compared to Rivera? It's a little easier to compare the two since they're both 32-year-old outfielders. And Wells has a clear advantage in Wins Above Replacement because Rivera has the mobility of a wounded pylon (except for his outlying 2009 season). Click image to embiggen.



In terms of overall value, Wells is clearly the superior player even with him, hopefully, moving to left field. But in pure hitting terms, you might as well flip a coin. Yes, I am still using wOBA and, as always, click to enlarge.



These aren't especially comforting graphs for Angels fans. Now, I'm not saying Rivera is close to the player that Wells is because he isn't. I'd much rather have Wells than Rivera in a vacuum but we can't ignore the Wells contract.

Could the Angels have suffered through a Bobby Abreu/Juan Rivera left field and found better production from a Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon designated hitter? If we turn a blind eye to defense for this experiment, I think the answer is yes. Plus that assortment of players could have just been a place holder until Mike Trout arrives.

Of course, this has just become a "could have, should have" exercise for me at this point. Actual results may vary.

Mike Napoli Versus Vernon Wells And It's Not Pretty

An insufferable amount of words have been written about how bad the Vernon Wells trade was from the Angels aspect. We get it. The contract is an albatross, Wells is a 32-year-old declining outfielder, his splits last year were a nightmare of Freddy Krueger proportions, Tony Reagins has a drinking problem, et cetera, et cetera... I know it hasn't been completely lost in the shuffle but the Angels also traded away the best hitter in this deal.

The fallacy I keep hearing from Angels fans is that Mike Napoli wasn't one of Mike Scioscia's "guys" or he wasn't wanted in Anaheim or he wasn't going to get playing time anyway or the Angels didn't want to pay him the $6 million or so he was going to win in arbitration. Maybe, but by trading Napoli, the Angels made the Blue Jays better and themselves considerably worse. The Angels will go into 2011 with Jeff Mathis, a career .199/.265/.311* hitter, as their starting catcher. But this post isn't about how bad Mathis is, and he is bad, it's about how underrated Napoli is compared to Wells.

*I accidentally copied Mathis' OBP/SLG/OPS line first and thought we were all terribly misinformed. Then I realized I missed the actual AVG/OBP/SLG line and Mathis is worse than I ever imagined.

I don't think the majority of people do realize that Napoli has been a better hitter than Wells over the past three or four seasons and will probably continue to be so over the duration of Wells' cashrific contract. For illustrative purposes, let's take a look at the career Weighted On Base Averages (wOBA) for Napoli and Wells. For those new to wOBA, you can read about it here. Click image to enlarge.



As you can see, Napoli has had a higher wOBA for each season since 2007 except for 2010. The Wells supporters like to point at the bounce back season of 2010 hoping it is an encouraging sign for things to come. Unfortunately, Wells' big 2010 season was aided by a massive power spike in Toronto.

	Park Factors HR Rates
Year	Angels Stadium	Rogers Center
2010	0.825	1.358
2009	1.22	0.99
2008	0.933	0.926

So I would caution any Angels fans who are hoping Wells will be bringing 30 home run power to Anaheim. Wells has as good a chance of repeating his 2010 season as I do being Scarlett Johansson's rebound. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong in both cases.

The other concern about Wells is his splits. He hasn't hit lefties over the past two seasons and was atrocious on the road last year. Napoli isn't going to hit for a high average and he struggled with right handers this past season but absolutely crushes southpaws. He is also a pretty consistent hitter at home or on the road.

	Vernon Wells
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	27 HR .291/.342/.553	4 HR .195/.289/.354	20 HR .321/.363/.628	11 HR .227/.301/.407
2009	12 HR .278/.322/.425	3 HR .206/.279/.323	8 HR .214/.285/.348	7 HR .300/.335/.444
2008	18 HR .290/.328/.509	2 HR .333/.394/.455	11 HR .296/.347/.502	9 HR .304/.339/.490

	Mike Napoli
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	16 HR .208/.277/.423	10 HR .305/.399/.567	13 HR .240/.324/.480	13 HR .237/.307/.456
2009	14 HR .251/.325/.453	6 HR .337/.422/.611	10 HR .230/.332/.480	10 HR .308/.365/.514
2008	16 HR .270/.364/.590	4 HR .286/.406/.571	10 HR .250/.356/.542	10 HR .299/.394/.636

I would love to be wrong about Wells but the numbers suggest he's on the decline and has lost the ability to hit left handed pitching. His spike last season was a clear product of the Rogers Center becoming a hitters park for 2010. I doubt this is one of those "change of scenery will do him good" scenarios. But who knows, maybe the Angels have the Fountain of Youth hidden in the outfield rocks.

Napoli, on the other hand, is poised for a big 2011 season and won't cost the Jays the price of a small island.

As an Angels fan, it isn't fun being the bearer of doom and gloom.

The One Where I Gush About Buster Posey

It's no secret that we play favorites over here at Off Base and Buster Posey is easily one of our favorites. Derwood was turned on to Posey back when he was playing high school baseball in Georgia. I can't easily explain my fascination with him except he's really good at the baseball. He's so good in fact, I'm willing to overlook that his real first name is Gerald. Shame on you Posey parents, Gerald is a 60-year-old's name. The hot hitting catcher is on his way to taking the Giants to the playoffs whether the rest of the offense likes it or not. We'll have a vote for the BBA's regular season awards and, spoiler, our top pick will be Posey. The National League is loaded with potential superstar rookies but here's why we love San Fran's catcher...

1. He plays a premium position. Go look up how many franchise clean-up hitters were catchers. Go ahead, I'll wait. Also, I'm too lazy to do that research on my own. But I assume there aren't that many and Posey certainly looks like he's heading in the right direction.

2. Posey is hitting .323/.370/.524 with 16 home runs and gets very little help from the rest of his lineup as a 23-year-old. His main competition for NL ROY is Jason Heyward who, in 177 more plate appearances, is hitting .285/.400/.472 with 2 more homers while playing right field. That's basically a month worth of more service time. More on that later. Heyward probably deserves a little extra credit though because he's putting that line together as a 20-year-old.

3. Buster was temporarily and ludicrously blocked at catcher by Bengie Molina. The Giants eventually jettisoned Molina to clear the way for Posey behind the dish. I'd love to tell you that all of his receiving skills were vastly underrated but UZR doesn't work for catchers and I'm no scout. But it doesn't seem like the Giants will have to move him off of his position and he can't be any worse than Mike Piazza was, right?

4. What say you, nerdy stats? Heyward is out WAR-ing Posey 4.6-3.9 but, again, WAR is a counting stat so Heyward's extra playing time certain gives him a boost. Then there's the defense issue. UZR rates Heyward as an average right fielder while Posey takes a little hit from UZR for the time he played first base. So far, Posey appears to doing just fine in the catching categories that Fangraphs uses for WAR. Heyward is beating out Posey in wOBA too but just barely at .384 to .378. They're BABIPs are a wash, Posey .339 and Heyward .343. They're even deadlocked with 136 OPS+.

It's really close and both are going to be superstars along with Mike Stanton who might hit 40 home runs next year. There's plenty of time left to decide the ROY and both Posey and Hewyard are still in playoff races. I'm not sure how this evolved into a ROY post but at least all I'll have to do for my official ROY post is change around a few numbers. You're welcome, future me.

Weekly Cup Of Joe: Tim Raines Edition

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

I took the last couple of weeks of from Joe Morgan's chats over at the Four Letter because I was afraid of all the brain damage. But it's Tuesday and I'm a masochist so I strapped on my special helmet and dove into this week's Joe Chat. Instead of just blasting away at some nonsensical answer, I'm actually using this question and answer for a jumping off point for something I was planning on writing anyway. Let's grab that nugget of wisdom...

Tito (Brooklyn)

What do you think is more important from the leadoff hitter in a batting lineup: speed or OBP?

Joe Morgan (11:25 AM)

A perfect leadoff hitter does both. You want guys to get on base. There were a lot of guys who hit first and got on base but didn't have speed. Wade Boggs comes to mind. He got on base a lot and gave his team a chance to score runs. Now if a guy gets on base and has speed, he can help the team score runs by himself. If he doesn't have speed, then you can still get on base and help the team score runs within the team concept.

Joe Morgan (11:27 AM)

The perfect blend is getting on base with speed and Rickey Henderson comes to mind with that. But as we both know Rickey and Boggs are both in the hall of fame.

Rickey Henderson comes to mind, huh Joe? Well Rickey is the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of baseball with a career .401 OBP and the all time steals record of 1406 (second is Lou Brock with 938). Henderson was the prototype for leadoff hitters, the perfect combo. Somewhere along the line, managers fell too in love with the speed and now Ozzie Guillen has no problem leading off with Juan Pierre and his .348 career OBP. Sure speed at the top of the order is nice but getting on base is, well, the most important part of baseball from the hitter aspect. Or not making an out but now we're just arguing semantics. Rickey got on base 40 percent of the time. Then with the combination of his speed and forcing the pitcher to throw from the stretch, he gave the rest of his lineup the advantage. Which leads me to the next best leadoff hitter.

Why isn't Tim Raines a first ballot Hall of Famer? No, really, I'm asking. By the way, my love for Raines has nothing to do with my recent affair with the Expos that started here and continued here with their draft history and will end in the not foreseeable future. Okay, maybe that has a little something to do with it but it's mainly stat based love. Raines is 5th all time in stolen bases with 808 and sports a career .294/.385/.425 line. He was overshadowed by Rickey but that's certainly no excuse for his lack of Hall of Fame votes.

Raines is tied with Ozzie Smith for the 82nd best career WAR of 64.60 according to Baseball-Reference. Now, I can't really get a grip on Raines' fielding because Fangraphs' Total Zone has him all over the place throughout his career and there aren't any UZR stats for him except for the brief 2002 stint with the Marlins. Either way, WAR puts him into the top 100 players of all time which should get him much more HOF love. Still not convinced? Go check out our friends at Raines30 who have put together Rock's Hall of Fame case better than I can.

I'm not sure what the argument is against Tim Raines. I don't even hear a big backlash against his drug use either. There's no stat based reason I can see. How about some more nerdy stats? Rickey's career wOBA .386, Rock's career wOBA .374. Raines has the advantage in batting average (.294-.279) and slugging (.425-.419) but trails in the all important leadoff categories of on base (.401-.385) and steals (1406-808). Rickey was clearly the prototype but if Raines wasn't built in his image then I don't know who was.

Weekly Cup Of Joe: Midway MVP Edition

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

It's Tuesday which means there was a Joe Chat over at the Four Letter. Joe Morgan's chats are like McDonald's food. It seems like a good idea at the time but after you're done with it you feel gross and need a nap. I actually read today's chat while eating McDonald's and I'm pretty sure I broke the space-time continuum. Let's grab a McNugget of wisdom while I try to pull myself together...

Matt (Plano,TX)

Who is your MVP for the AL and NL?

Joe Morgan (11:31 AM)

Too early to tell. I thought it was Cano for a while in the AL, but Cabrera and Hamilton are in the conversation now as well. I always feel like the MVP should come from a winning team, one that's in the pennant race. You always have to start with Pujols in the NL. He's the best player in the game and it's his award to lose. For a long period, David Wright was the leader, but he has cooled off. Andre Ethier was one of the top candidates for a while, and you have to mention Adrian Gonzalez because the Padres are winning, and he's the reason they're in first place. But it's still too early to tell.

Yeah, he's wrong but let's see why. Oh and you should probably buckle up, it's going to get nerdy.

MTD's NL MVP Leaders

1. Joey Votto 4.1 WAR, .424 wOBA
Votto has 22 home runs to go with his .307/.415/.573 slash line. He's having such an amazing season I'm willing to overlook his 0-2 on 2 pitches performance at the All Star Game.

2. David Wright 4.1 WAR, .393 wOBA
It feels like Wright is flying under the radar. He only has 15 homers and 15 steals to go with his .312/.387/.531 slash line and a 5.8 UZR/150. Nothing wrong with that and, somehow, he has his team in the NL East pennant race. Oliver Perez thinks that's preposterous as he injures himself rolling around in a pile of cash.

3. Matt Holliday 4.2 WAR, .395 wOBA
Pujols has a better wOBA (.412) but trails in WAR (3.6) and after a couple of stunning seasons at first base, he's having a rather poor year in the field (-2.2 UZR/150).

MTD's AL MVP Leaders

1. Justin Morneau 5.0 WAR, .447 wOBA
I wanted to put Josh Hamilton or Miggy Carbera first put the advanced stats slapped me on the back of the head and shook its fist at me. Did anyone else outside of Minnesota notice the sick stats Morneau was putting up? Hopefully he recovers from that concussion I gave him during a pick-up hockey game soon so I can complain when he doesn't win the MVP at the end of the year.

2. Josh Hamilton 4.8 WAR, .439 wOBA
Probably too far back in RBI to catch Cabrera but if Hamilton stays healthy, he could lead the American League in batting average, home runs and unwanted tattoos. A healthy Josh Hamilton is scary, especially since I'm an Angels fan.

3. Miguel Cabrera 3.8 WAR, .443 wOBA
Cabrera is second in home runs (25-24), third in batting average (.353-.340) and first in RBI (82-76). Miggy could make a serious run at the Triple Crown this summer. He's also the most likely to have had McDonald's this week. And yes, I'm proud of the way I brought that full circle.

Weekly Cup Of Joe: NL Center Field Edition

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

I can't even begin to describe what a joy it is to listen to Chris Berman and Joe Morgan call the Home Derby. The only thing that could make it any better is if they invite Ken Harrelson next year. Imagine Berman yelling "back, back, back, back" while Harrelson yells "You can put it on the booooard... YES!" Music to my ears. Painful, blood inducing music. It's Tuesday so there was a Joe Chat over a the Four Letter. Let's grab a nugget of wisdom and see if I can add any useful insight...

Tito (Brooklyn)

Joe, who do you think is the best overall CF in the NL?

Joe Morgan (11:22 AM)

Well, I guess the question would be defensively or offensively? CF in the NL, you have Shane Victorino is a good defensive OF. Matt Kemp as well. That's an interesting question, because I don't think there are a lot of great CFs in the NL. Those are two that are exceptional. Drew Stubbs has a chance to be a good CF.

Um actually Joe, the question was overall CF. Which I assume encompasses both offense and defense. A quick glance at WAR tells me Andres Torres (3.5), Marlon Byrd (3.5) and Angel Pagan (3.3) are all worth close to a win more than the rest of the National League center fielders. Victorino (1.7) is in the middle of the pack while Kemp (0.3) and Stubbs (0.8) are towards the bottom.

Maybe Joe was just talking about offensive center fielders. According to wOBA, Colby Rasmus (.390), Andres Torres (.383) and Carlos Gonzalez (.375) are the top guys. Victorino (.342), Kemp (.336) and Stubbs (.321) aren't particularly close.

Perhaps Joe was just talking about defensive center fielders. UZR/150 has Tony Gwynn (49.8) smoking the rest of the pack with Marlon Byrd (15.8) and Michael Bourn (13.2) having really good seasons. At the other end of the spectrum, Matt Kemp has a -29.9 UZR/150. I think that means somewhere around 14 balls have bounced off of his head for home runs. Victorino (-4.1) and Stubbs (-6.5) aren't exactly helping out their pitchers either.

Don't like advanced metrics? You really should look into that. Byrd (.317), Pagan (.315) and Gonzalez (.314) are the only center fielders with a batting average over .300. Vitcorino (.250) and Stubbs (.235) have the worst batting averages for center fielders and I'm starting to wonder why Stubbs is on my fantasy team. Kemp (.261) isn't exactly lighting the league on fire either.

Kemp is third in home runs and RBI for center fielders. That's all I have. I don't know where Joe came up with these answers. They may actually be the only center fielders he could think of.

I think this season the best center fielder in the National League is Marlon Byrd. But guys like Carlos Gonzalez, Colby Rasmus and Andrew McCutchen will probably be vying for that top spot sooner than later.

Our Required All Star Snubs Post

Derwood isn't a big fan of the All Star game or the Angels. So it makes perfect sense that he will be traveling to the Big A to watch the game this year while I sit at home and curse him under my breath. He also despises the All Star selection process but I find it fascinating and infuriating. So I'll be your guide through this Joey Votto/Jered Weaver fueled rant. Buckle up kids, it might get nerdy.

Joey Votto: This is the one everybody is up in arms over and it's deserved. All of Votto's counting stats are right there with Pujols. I know the players and especially Charlie Manuel aren't looking at advanced metrics but I sure am. In wOBA, Votto (.424) is crushing Pujols (.409) and more importantly Ryan Howard (.363). Don't like/understand wOBA? Everybody likes WAR and Votto (3.6) is still better than Pujols (3.1) and much better than Howard (1.2).

Votto is at least the best first baseman in the National League this season and deserves to be an All Star. But hey, Omar Infante and his 0.5 WAR might come in handy if you need a 5th short stop in the 14th inning. Actually, you'd probably be better off playing Votto at short stop and not even letting him take the field.

Jered Weaver: Obviously, this one bothered me the most. Weaver was asked to take over the ace role for the Angels and not only did he handle it, he has become one of the best pitchers in the league. Oh yeah, the All Star game is also in his home park.

As Keith Law pointed out yesterday, only 2 of the top 10 pitchers in WAR made the AL squad. But hey, if you look at FIP, 3 of the top 10 made it! Fine, don't like advanced metrics? Weaver leads the AL in strikeouts (124), 9th-ish in least walks (26), 6th in ERA (2.82) and his BABIP is a perfectly sustainable .299. I went a little nerdy there at the end, huh?

CC Sabathia: 1.9 WAR, 3.94 FIP, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks = All Star

Fransisco Liriano: I have him on my fantasy team and didn't realize how good of a season he's having. He leads the AL in WAR (4.2), FIP (2.10) and tied for 3rd in strikeouts (116). I might be crazy but I would rather have Liriano available to close a game than, oh say, Jose Valverde.

Kevin Youkilis: Shame on you Joe Girardi. Youk should be in there over A-Rod and especially over David Ortiz. Youkilis is easily one of the top 10 players in the AL if you look at any stat except for batting average (.299) but you have to get Jose Bautista (.236) in there.

Stephen Strasburg: I'm not calling him a snub so much as I have a problem with Evan Meek. Seriously, would you rather have Strasburg for an inning or Evan Meek. I'll save you the trouble of looking up which team Meek plays for, he's the Pirates lone rep. Simple solution: pull Corey Hart, plug in Andrew McCutchen, pull Meek and put in Strasburg. Everybody is a winner. Well, except for Meek and Hart.

Anybody but Omar Infante: *head explodes*

I could go on but I'd like to actually watch some baseball but I'll leave you with this...

Actual NL Lineup: C Yadier Molina, 1B Albert Pujols, 2B Chase Utley, 3B David Wright, SS Hanley Ramirez, OF Ryan Braun, OF Jason Heyward, Of Andre Ethier

WAR NL Lineup: C Brian McCann, 1B Joey Votto, 2B Chase Utley, 3B David Wright, SS Troy Tulowitzki, RF Andres Torres, CF Marlon Byrd, LF Matt Holliday

Actual AL Lineup: C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Evan Longoria, SS Derek Jeter, OF Ichiro, OF Josh Hamilton, OF Carl Crawford, DH Vlad Guerrero

WAR AL Lineup: C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Alex Gonzalez, RF Ichiro, CF Alex Rios, LF Carl Crawford, DH Vlad Guerrero