The 25 Year Old And Under Team

If I've learned anything from blogging, it's that people love lists. And get used to being poor. So I'm going to run out some lineups that fall in line with the arbitrary parameters that I have set. Today's lineup consists of players who are 25-years-old or younger by April 1st, 2011. The 2011 stats are Bill James' forecasts since Baseball Prospectus' pay wall is impossible to navigate around without any cash.

Catcher - Buster Posey 3/27/1987
2010: 18 HR, .305/.357/.505, .368 wOBA, 3.9 WAR
2011: 21 HR, .308/.370/.506, .380 wOBA

When the Giants finally shipped off Bengie Molina's 7 speed on the 20-80 scouting scale, Posey took over the catching duties in San Fran and never looked back. He was the NL ROY and finished 11th in MVP voting while becoming a blog favorite here.

Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters both turn 25 this year and have bright futures, even if Wieters is fantasy kryptonite for me. But Posey is already a star and would be the face of the franchise if it wasn't for that dirty hippy.

First Base - Ike Davis 3/22/1987
2010: 19 HR, .264/.351/.440, .345 wOBA, 3.4 WAR
2011: 23 HR, .283/.374/.488, .377 wOBA

First base was a little tough considering Brandon Belt will probably replace Davis on next year's team. Davis gets the nod here because I wanted to give Mets fans a reason to step back from that ledge for a minute before the season starts. They'll probably be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in April.

Second Base - Gordon Beckham 9/16/1986
2009: 14 HR, .270/.347/.460, .351 wOBA, 2.2 WAR
2010: 9 HR, .252/.317/.378, .305 wOBA, 0.9 WAR
2011: 15 HR, .273/.343/.436, .338 wOBA

Which Beckham will show up in 2011? The only thing I can guarantee is that it won't be Tim. I still believe in Gordon but that was a disaster of a sophomore campaign. I also considered Sean Rodriguez but I'm still pretty bummed that he was the PTBNL in the Scott Kazmir deal.

Dustin Ackley and Jean Segura aren't that far away from bumping Beckham from his starting gig on this team though.

Short Stop - Starlin Castro 3/24/1990
2010: 3 HR, .300/.347/.408, .325 wOBA, 2.0 WAR
2011: 4 HR, .310/.359/.428, .343 wOBA

Considering Castro won't turn 21 until March, it looks like he has all of the goods to be a perennial All Star. That's the good news for Cubs fans. The bad news is they couldn't move Alfonso Soriano's chubby contract to the Angels. Yet.

Third Base - Evan Longoria 10/7/1985
2010: 22 HR, .294/.372/.507, .376 wOBA, 6.9 WAR
2011: 31 HR, .295/.379/.537, .397 wOBA

Not only is Longoria still just 25, he might already be the best player at his position in baseball. He's my way too early pick for AL MVP. Plus, he's signed to the most team friendly contract in the recent history of MLB. Add all of that together and you can see why stat super nerd Dave Cameron named Longoria the most (trade) valuable player in all the land.

Right Field - Jason Heyward 8/9/1989
2010: 18 HR, .277/.393/.456, .376 wOBA, 5.0 WAR
2011: 22 HR, .295/.411/.493, .395 wOBA

Heyward arrived with a massive cloud of hype surrounding him and didn't disappoint. Heyward finished in the top ten in OBP while playing the majority of the season as a 20-year-old rookie. The force is strong with this one. And to get on my good side, he even recorded a Platinum Sombrero on June 5th.

Remember Justin Upton? Yeah, me neither.

Center Field - Andrew McCutchen 10/10/1986
2010: 16 HR, 33 SB, .286/.365/.449, .363 wOBA, 3.3 WAR
2011: 16 HR, 33 SB, .287/.364/.445, .359 wOBA

Center field was a little tricky for me because I really like Colby Rasmus. But Tony LaRussa will find a way to play the corpse of Jim Edmonds or Jon Jay or a traffic cone in center instead of giving Rasmus the full time gig. McCutchen is also a lot of fun to watch which isn't something routinely said about the Pirates.

Left Field - Carlos Gonzalez 10/17/1985
2010: 34 HR, 26 SB, .336/.376/.598, .416 wOBA, 6.0 WAR
2011: 28 HR, 22 SB, .308/.357/.545, .390 wOBA

I slid CarGo into left because he did start 51 games there and posted his best UZR there compared to the other outfield spots. Sure his home-road splits hurt my feelings but he still had an amazing season in 2010 and crashed Albert Pujols' and Joey Votto's little Triple Crown race.

DH - Billy Butler 4/18/1986
2010: 15 HR, .318/.388/.469, .372 wOBA, 3.4 WAR
2011: 18 HR, .307/.377/.476, .373 wOBA

Butler is one of those players who seems like he should be much better than he is. He doesn't really have a position so his lack of power is disconcerting for a DH or even a first baseman. Unless you're the Angels. But he hits the gaps (6th in doubles in 2010) and has a solid OBP.

Staff Ace - Felix Hernandez 4/8/1986
2010: 2.27 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, 6.2 WAR
2011: 3.31 ERA, 3.30 FIP

King Felix won his first Cy Young in his 6th year in the bigs as a 24-year-old. If he was on a different MLB team (not talking about you, Pittsburgh), we might be looking at the next/last pitcher who could get to 300 wins. At least voters are now looking past pitcher wins so Felix should be able to score a few more trophies. By trophies, I mean Cy Youngs just in case anybody confused the Mariners as a playoff team for the foreseeable future.

Closer - Neftali Feliz 5/2/1988
2010: 2.73 ERA, .2.96 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, 1.7 WAR
2011: 2.66 ERA, .2.97 FIP

I'm still in the "make Feliz a starter" camp but the Rangers don't reply to my emails and it seems like they're going to leave him in the closer role. He is fantastic there but they just lose too much value keeping him in the pen if he can start.

Cliff Lee's All Time Competition From Ages 32-36

It didn't escape me in my posting absence that Cliff Lee spurned the Rangers and Yankees to re-join the Phillies on a 5-year, $120 million deal. But by now, you've all heard every opinion possible about the matter. Jeez, Craig Calcaterra's crew at Hardball Talk wrote 16 posts about him in 18 hours. Instead of figuring out Texas' and New York's contingency plans or why the Angels are sitting on their hands, I wanted to take a look at what the Phillies hope they're getting over the next five years in a pitcher who will start his contract as a 32-year-old.

My research might not stand up to some of those who practice the Sabr science for a profession but I think it's a good once over for someone losing roughly $1.49 every month on this site. Also, Fangraphs WAR doesn't go past 1980 in the history annals so I'm using the similarly awesome stats from Baseball-Reference. Obviously, I didn't include pitchers from the deadball era because none of them lived to be 32.[citation needed]

1. Bob Gibson
Years: 1968-1972 WAR: 43.9 ERA: 2.35 ERA+: 150
The HOF Cardinal pitcher had an unbelievable five year stretch after he turned 32. His top WAR seasons were in 1968 (11.9), 1969 (11.0), 1970 (8.7) and 1972 (7.6). Nobody can be expecting Cliff Lee to touch these numbers but it could be possible Lee is hitting his peak on the typical wrong side of 30.

2. Randy Johnson
Years: 1997-2001 WAR: 37.4 ERA: 2.64 ERA+: 174
Technically, I'm cheating here. Johnson's first season that he started as a 32-year-old was 1996 but he only tossed 61.1 innings. If I swap out Johnson's 2002 season for his 1996 season, he ends up with a 30.2 WAR which would still be tied for second place. While I have no reason to expect Lee to be healthy for his 32-year-old season or even his 37-year-old season, it's always nice to appreciate how good The Big Unit was after he turned 30 or 32 or 37 or 42. His 91.8 career WAR should be a first class ticket to the Hall of Fame even if Bert Blyleven is still flying standby with his 90.1 WAR.

3. Roger Clemens
Years: 1995-1999 WAR: 30.2 ERA: 3.27 ERA+: 145
Clemens rollercoasted his single seasons WARs over a 24-year career accumulating an insane 128.4 of them. It's hard to predict how his alleged performance enhancing or sleeping with under aged country music stars will affect his Hall of Fame candidacy but the numbers should put him in by a landslide. These are all probably topics for another post but the Phils would be thrilled with that kind of performance over Lee's contract even if some indiscretions involving Taylor Swift popped up years from now.

4. Warren Spahn
Years: 1953-1957 WAR: 30.1 ERA: 2.79 ERA+: 132
I included the "liveball" wins leader because, well, he's the liveball wins leader. His 101 complete games is the closest to rivaling Gibson's 122 over the 32-36 year-old age bracket but Spahn posted a 1.80 K/BB ratio over that period and Cliff Lee might be able to top it with his eyes closed.

5. Kevin Brown
Years: 1997-2001 WAR: 30.0 ERA: 2.66 ERA+: 155
Brown had an even better 5-year streak that began just a year earlier in 1996 and ended with his 6.5 WAR as a 35-year-old. His 64.8 WAR makes him an interesting case for the Hall of Fame even though he only finished in the top three of Cy Young voting twice (both in his 32-36 range) during his 19 seasons while never winning it. Lee has already won one but will have to duel with a teammate for any future award. Either way, the Phillies would be more than happy to boast two or three of the National League's best pitchers in the upcoming seasons.

6. Phil Niekro
Years: 1971-1975 WAR: 30.0 ERA: 2.97 ERA+: 128
I could have left the list at a reasonable five but I felt like I'd be letting Rob Neyer down if I didn't include a knuckleballer on the list. And I wish I had a better reason than that because Niekro's 2.17 K/BB was only better than Spahn's aforementioned 1.90 ratio. Am I secretly hoping Lee starts throwing a knuckleball? Perhaps. Are the Phillies? Not so much.

7. David Cone
Years: 1995-1999 WAR: 23.8 ERA: 3.32 ERA+: 139
Mmmhmm. Which brings us to...

8. Greg Maddux
Years: 1998-2002 WAR: 23.7 ERA: 2.88 ERA+: 152
Welcome to the confusing stat portion of our program. Maddux had the third best ERA+ of this bunch and second best K/BB ratio (4.16) to Johnson's (4.48) but doesn't have the shiny WAR of his colleagues. Fangraphs WAR (fWAR) has him at 31.1 which, I assume, does a better job of evaluating his "Gold Glove" defense using UZR instead of Total Zone. Take a deep breath, don't let all of that nerdiness get to your head at once. However you look at Maddux's performance from 32 to 36, the Phillies would not regret their payroll splurge. But don't be surprised if a cheesesteak will run you around $33 inside the stadium, it's player number integration pricing!

The Math
It might be presumptuous to compare Cliff Lee to some of the greatest pitchers in baseball history but there is a case to be made that Lee could be great into his mid-thirties. Baseball-Reference has Lee as about a 5.5 WAR player per year over the past three seasons. Fangraphs has him as almost a 7 WAR player per season over that time. Let's say Lee ends up being a 6 WAR player over his Philly contract. If a player on the free market is worth $6 million per point of WAR, that would make Lee worth $180 million over five years instead of the $120 Philadelphia is paying him (and that's without inflation!).

Assuming Lee stays healthy over the next five years is a big leap of faith. But he will be playing with Doc Halladay who is two years into a pace that would make him the second greatest pitcher between the ages of 32 and 36. Doc might have some staying healthy secrets he can share. Or he's just some kind of freak of nature. Either way, I'm betting Lee stays healthy enough to make this contract look like a relative steal for the Phillies. Note: I'm a big sucker for WAR and terrible at gambling, actual results may vary.