Vernon Wells Is An Upgrade From Juan Rivera, Right?

Yesterday I took a look at Mike Napoli vs Vernon Wells as hitters. And while this isn't becoming an Angels blog, it does seem like I have an awful lot to write about them lately. I think the guys over at the Orange County Register are egging me on though. Dan Woike recently wondered "Was Angels' Juan Rivera That Bad?" I'm not sure what his answer was because I'm allergic to slideshows but it did get me thinking.

How much better is Wells compared to Rivera? It's a little easier to compare the two since they're both 32-year-old outfielders. And Wells has a clear advantage in Wins Above Replacement because Rivera has the mobility of a wounded pylon (except for his outlying 2009 season). Click image to embiggen.



In terms of overall value, Wells is clearly the superior player even with him, hopefully, moving to left field. But in pure hitting terms, you might as well flip a coin. Yes, I am still using wOBA and, as always, click to enlarge.



These aren't especially comforting graphs for Angels fans. Now, I'm not saying Rivera is close to the player that Wells is because he isn't. I'd much rather have Wells than Rivera in a vacuum but we can't ignore the Wells contract.

Could the Angels have suffered through a Bobby Abreu/Juan Rivera left field and found better production from a Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon designated hitter? If we turn a blind eye to defense for this experiment, I think the answer is yes. Plus that assortment of players could have just been a place holder until Mike Trout arrives.

Of course, this has just become a "could have, should have" exercise for me at this point. Actual results may vary.

Mike Napoli Versus Vernon Wells And It's Not Pretty

An insufferable amount of words have been written about how bad the Vernon Wells trade was from the Angels aspect. We get it. The contract is an albatross, Wells is a 32-year-old declining outfielder, his splits last year were a nightmare of Freddy Krueger proportions, Tony Reagins has a drinking problem, et cetera, et cetera... I know it hasn't been completely lost in the shuffle but the Angels also traded away the best hitter in this deal.

The fallacy I keep hearing from Angels fans is that Mike Napoli wasn't one of Mike Scioscia's "guys" or he wasn't wanted in Anaheim or he wasn't going to get playing time anyway or the Angels didn't want to pay him the $6 million or so he was going to win in arbitration. Maybe, but by trading Napoli, the Angels made the Blue Jays better and themselves considerably worse. The Angels will go into 2011 with Jeff Mathis, a career .199/.265/.311* hitter, as their starting catcher. But this post isn't about how bad Mathis is, and he is bad, it's about how underrated Napoli is compared to Wells.

*I accidentally copied Mathis' OBP/SLG/OPS line first and thought we were all terribly misinformed. Then I realized I missed the actual AVG/OBP/SLG line and Mathis is worse than I ever imagined.

I don't think the majority of people do realize that Napoli has been a better hitter than Wells over the past three or four seasons and will probably continue to be so over the duration of Wells' cashrific contract. For illustrative purposes, let's take a look at the career Weighted On Base Averages (wOBA) for Napoli and Wells. For those new to wOBA, you can read about it here. Click image to enlarge.



As you can see, Napoli has had a higher wOBA for each season since 2007 except for 2010. The Wells supporters like to point at the bounce back season of 2010 hoping it is an encouraging sign for things to come. Unfortunately, Wells' big 2010 season was aided by a massive power spike in Toronto.

	Park Factors HR Rates
Year	Angels Stadium	Rogers Center
2010	0.825	1.358
2009	1.22	0.99
2008	0.933	0.926

So I would caution any Angels fans who are hoping Wells will be bringing 30 home run power to Anaheim. Wells has as good a chance of repeating his 2010 season as I do being Scarlett Johansson's rebound. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong in both cases.

The other concern about Wells is his splits. He hasn't hit lefties over the past two seasons and was atrocious on the road last year. Napoli isn't going to hit for a high average and he struggled with right handers this past season but absolutely crushes southpaws. He is also a pretty consistent hitter at home or on the road.

	Vernon Wells
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	27 HR .291/.342/.553	4 HR .195/.289/.354	20 HR .321/.363/.628	11 HR .227/.301/.407
2009	12 HR .278/.322/.425	3 HR .206/.279/.323	8 HR .214/.285/.348	7 HR .300/.335/.444
2008	18 HR .290/.328/.509	2 HR .333/.394/.455	11 HR .296/.347/.502	9 HR .304/.339/.490

	Mike Napoli
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	16 HR .208/.277/.423	10 HR .305/.399/.567	13 HR .240/.324/.480	13 HR .237/.307/.456
2009	14 HR .251/.325/.453	6 HR .337/.422/.611	10 HR .230/.332/.480	10 HR .308/.365/.514
2008	16 HR .270/.364/.590	4 HR .286/.406/.571	10 HR .250/.356/.542	10 HR .299/.394/.636

I would love to be wrong about Wells but the numbers suggest he's on the decline and has lost the ability to hit left handed pitching. His spike last season was a clear product of the Rogers Center becoming a hitters park for 2010. I doubt this is one of those "change of scenery will do him good" scenarios. But who knows, maybe the Angels have the Fountain of Youth hidden in the outfield rocks.

Napoli, on the other hand, is poised for a big 2011 season and won't cost the Jays the price of a small island.

As an Angels fan, it isn't fun being the bearer of doom and gloom.

My Obligatory Vernon Wells Trade Post

Angels fans were promised a "big splash" by General Manager Tony Reagins and, dammit, he delivered. By now, thousands of words have been written about the Angels decision to send Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera to Toronto for Vernon Wells and his bloated $80+ million contract. The trade, as you should know, has been universally crushed from the Angels point of view except for the frighteningly optimistic James of True Grich.

As the resident Angels fan, I feel obligated to post something about the trade even though I don't think I have much to add. I'd love to be optimistic and I do like Wells but I'm afraid advanced metrics and the Internet have ruined by ability to be a "die hard" fan anymore. It's almost sad in a way.

The starved for offense Angels traded for a center fielder who hit 31 home runs, 44 doubles and a .273/.331/.515 line in 2010. Twelve-year-old me would have been ecstatic about this trade. Instead, I immediately began trying to figure out how much of Wells' contract Toronto would have to eat for the deal to make sense. If they ate $30M + the $10M or so saved from Rivera and Napoli, then Wells would just have to be a 2.5 WAR player each of the four years of the remaining contract. That is providing Wells will move to a corner outfield spot and not cost the Angels runs by playing center. That was my rough estimate anyway.

Of course, the Blue Jays only sent $5 million back to Anaheim and the trade looks like a financial disaster for the Angels. But as a fan, I kept digging through Fangraphs and scouring Twitter to find a silver lining. Much like quicksand though, the harder I tried, the worse it got. I could ramble on about his splits or declining defense or what $75 million could have bought but it's all rather depressing.

It's hard to imagine this is the same Tony Reagins who orchestrated the heist of Dan Haren last season. But what's done is done now. No amount of analysis or whining will reverse this deal. Unless you have a time machine, do you have a time machine? No? Well, then, all Angels fans can do is continue to support the team and root for Wells to prove the pundits wrong or at least less wrong. That hasn't exactly worked with that Gary Matthews Jr signing but at least the Angels are only paying him $10 million for one more season.

The Mike Trout era can't get here fast enough.

AL Also Favored in HR Derby

Derwood is headed to Anaheim with his Jorge Posada batting practice shirt and 17 pens. Stay with Offbase over the next three days for All-Star coverage from a career .180 hitter.


* UPDATE - 8:57 p.m., EST *
Bud Selig just announced the winning league at the hr derby secures home field advantage at next year's All Star Legends & Celebrity Softball Game.


"Next time, for Matthew Modine, it counts"


I haven't done any research, but I'm assuming Chris Berman will once again be involved in the home run derby. Normally this would be the spot where I apologize to the Offbase readers because you'll have to hear Berman on your television, where as I get to be there live and avoid that jerk. But I'm pretty sir his voice is amplified on the PA system during the derby, so everybody loses.

Anyway, in preparation for our live coverage of the all star festivities, I took a quick glance at the home run derby rosters.

AL: Nick Swisher, David Ortiz, Vernon Wells, Miguel Cabrera

Favorite: Cabrera. Have you seen this youngster lately? Over the last few years he's added a Juan Pierre of muscle and this is a perfect event for a hulking man with a head that seems to grow by the second (see: Sosa, Sammy).

Sleepers: Wells. I know, the smart bananas would be on Ortiz because no one has a bigger head than Big Poopy, but I like Wells. For a right-handed hitter, those giant Flinstones rocks in left-center are quite inviting/dumb.

Sentimental favorite: Swisher. Quite a run for Swish the last two years. He went from playing smart ball for an idiot and having to see Ken Harrelson's face 162 times a year to being the starting right fielder for the Yankees, her, and now he's in his first all-star game and participating in the HR derby.

NL: Hanley Ramirez, Corey Hart, Matt Holliday, Chris Young

Favorite: Hart. Probably the best pure power hitter of the quartet, but if anyone in my section at Angels Stadium knows who this guy is, I'll eat my Mark Langston bobblehead doll.

Sleeper: Holliday. He did well in the '07 derby in San Fransisco and you know what they say about guys participating in two home run derbys on the same coast, three years apart: each time, the winner of the next day's all star game SECURES HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE FOR THEIR LEAGUE IN THE WORLD SERIES. That may not be the last time I mention home field advantage over the next three days.


PICK: Cabrera over Hart in final

Curveballs for Jobu

Curveballs for Jobu is Off Base Percentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy: Jim Eisenreich



Braves 6, Rays 2. Since the Reds beat him up for eight earned runs in 1 2/3 innings May 20, Tommy Hanson has given up seven runs in his last five starts (31 IP, 2.03 ERA), all Braves wins. Hanson was excellent again Wednesday, tossing seven shutout innings on a three-hitter. One of the hits was a bunt single by Carlos Pena, which doesn't count because I don't believe it actually happened.

Giants 6, Orioles 3. The feel-good story of the summer has ended. After winning their first consecutive game Tuesday, the O's couldn't figure out Tim Lincecum (6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K) and fell to 18-48, but they did hit him in the shoulder with a line drive, which in 2010 counts as a victory for Baltimore.



Mariners 2, Cardinals 1. We have found A Bright Spot in the 2010 Season of the Seattle Mariners™. Jason Vargas allowed one earned run in 7 2/3 innings of five-hit ball, continuing his excellent season. Since his first start of the season, when Texas got to him for five earned runs in 5 1/3, Vargas hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 12 starts.

Bluejays 7, Padres 1. It's amazing how a player can fall off the face of the earth for a couple years, then he's taking Kevin Correia deep on Kevin Correia Bobblehead Day (rumor). Vernon Wells, who sold me a DVD player at a Best Buy just last year, hit his 16th home run in a resurgent year. He still doesn't get on base enough, but his power is back (.571 slugging, almost 100 points higher than his career mark) and the DVD player no longer works.

Whitesox 7, Pirates 2. The last time Pittsburgh won was June 5, which doesn't sound that bad until you realize it's June 17. That's 10 consecutive losses for the Pirates after Zach Duke (5 2/3 IP, 5 ER) lost his 49th game of the year (unofficial).