Showing posts with label accidental analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label accidental analysis. Show all posts

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Felix Wins By A Wide Margin Then Back To Normal

Felix Hernandez won his first Cy Young running away, receiving 21 of the 28 first place votes. King Felix was a horse pitching 249.2 innings while leading the American League with a 2.27 ERA. He was second in complete games (6) and strikeouts (232). And for those of us practicing nerdism, Felix was fourth in the league with a 3.04 FIP and third with a 6.2 WAR. The debate was whether he could take home the award with a 13-12 record against the likes of CC Sabathia (21 wins, 3.18 ERA), David Price (19 wins, 2.72 ERA) and Jon Lester (19 wins, 3.25 ERA).

The voters got it right and the BBWAA has done a solid job overall during this award season. Price, in a mild surprise, finished second receiving four first place votes over Sabathia and his three first place votes. Jon Lester placed fourth with Jered Weaver finishing a distant fifth. The win totals after Felix's 13 went back to the normal 19, 21, 19 and another 13. But Weaver did lead the league in strikeouts and had a 3.01 ERA. I'm surprised Justin Verlander's 18 wins didn't get him more than one fifth place vote.

In my ballot for the BBA, I had a coin flip between Felix and Cliff Lee for first and ended up settling with Felix for the top spot. Lee just managed one third place vote, one fourth and one fifth. Lee only won 12 games but he did pitch more innings than Price and Lester. I know the voting is getting better as far as looking at statistics past wins and ERA so I might be getting a little ahead of myself. However, Lee led the AL with a 2.58 FIP and 7.1 WAR. The reason I gave Lee more love than anyone else I've seen was his strikeout to walk ratio. Lee finished with a ridiculous 10.28 K/BB rate. Jered Weaver was second best with his 4.31 ratio.

Perhaps I'm a bit cynical even though the voters chose the best pitcher in the AL for the Cy. There was a big groundswell for Felix Hernandez by the stat guys and all of us writing from our moms' basements toward the end of the season. The main stream media had to take notice of our deifying of Felix this year. I suspect that's why he won by such a large margin. If the voters were really looking at advanced metrics now, wouldn't Cliff Lee have received more support? It's just a thought. Even the great Joe Sheehan admitted it was a tough year to sort out via Twitter...
@MnkysThrwngDrts I had him #5 (Lee). The AL Cy pool was a mess, seven or eight guys with cases, metrics pointing all over the place.
Fair enough. But Francisco Liriano was second in FIP (2.66) and fourth in WAR (6.0) and he received one fifth place vote. The aforementioned 18-game winner Justin Verlander finished third in FIP (2.97) and second in WAR (6.3) while being rewarded with a single fifth place vote. It just makes me wonder if Felix won due to the overwhelming hype surrounding him rather than the voters actually warming up to advanced metrics.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Former Zephyr Cameron Maybin Dealt To Padres

Within two days, the Florida Marlins have traded away the top prospects they received in the Miguel Cabrera deal with Detroit from three years ago. Left handed pitching prospect Andrew Miller has underachieved to the point where he was flipped to Boston for reliever Dustin Richardson on Friday. The Cameron Maybin deal is a little more curious.

The Marlins soured on the 23-year-old center fielder but they also had him split time between AAA New Orleans and the Major Leagues both in 2009 and this past season. His stat splits between the two leagues were pretty severe though. As a New Orleans Zephyr, Maybin looked like the potential superstar he was billed to be while he looked like a replacement level player in the bigs.

In 2009, Maybin played 82 games for New Orleans and produced a .319/.399/.463 line that would make him a potential All Star. In his 54 games with the Marlins he only put up a .250/.318/.409 line while playing good defense in center field. The 33 games he spent in New Orleans in 2010 were even better than the previous stint. Maybin hit .388/.407/.508 which would certainly make him an All Star. But in the 82 games he spent with Florida, he hit for a paltry .234/.302/.361 line.

Maybin’s swing has some holes in it. He struck out 51 times in 176 at bats during the 2009 season with Florida and another 92 times in 291 at bats in 2010. He has the chance to be a plus defender in center and is still young at 23. Maybin was out of options which means he couldn’t be sent back to New Orleans but he had nothing left to prove there anyway.

In my opinion, the Marlins gave up on Maybin too soon especially for the pair of relievers, Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica, they received in return. Maybin may be one of the prospects who just needed a change of scenery to flourish at the Major League level and he will have plenty of room to run in Petco’s spacious outfield.

I expect to be giving a similar send-off post to Brandon Wood anytime now.