Vernon Wells Is An Upgrade From Juan Rivera, Right?

Yesterday I took a look at Mike Napoli vs Vernon Wells as hitters. And while this isn't becoming an Angels blog, it does seem like I have an awful lot to write about them lately. I think the guys over at the Orange County Register are egging me on though. Dan Woike recently wondered "Was Angels' Juan Rivera That Bad?" I'm not sure what his answer was because I'm allergic to slideshows but it did get me thinking.

How much better is Wells compared to Rivera? It's a little easier to compare the two since they're both 32-year-old outfielders. And Wells has a clear advantage in Wins Above Replacement because Rivera has the mobility of a wounded pylon (except for his outlying 2009 season). Click image to embiggen.



In terms of overall value, Wells is clearly the superior player even with him, hopefully, moving to left field. But in pure hitting terms, you might as well flip a coin. Yes, I am still using wOBA and, as always, click to enlarge.



These aren't especially comforting graphs for Angels fans. Now, I'm not saying Rivera is close to the player that Wells is because he isn't. I'd much rather have Wells than Rivera in a vacuum but we can't ignore the Wells contract.

Could the Angels have suffered through a Bobby Abreu/Juan Rivera left field and found better production from a Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon designated hitter? If we turn a blind eye to defense for this experiment, I think the answer is yes. Plus that assortment of players could have just been a place holder until Mike Trout arrives.

Of course, this has just become a "could have, should have" exercise for me at this point. Actual results may vary.

Mike Napoli Versus Vernon Wells And It's Not Pretty

An insufferable amount of words have been written about how bad the Vernon Wells trade was from the Angels aspect. We get it. The contract is an albatross, Wells is a 32-year-old declining outfielder, his splits last year were a nightmare of Freddy Krueger proportions, Tony Reagins has a drinking problem, et cetera, et cetera... I know it hasn't been completely lost in the shuffle but the Angels also traded away the best hitter in this deal.

The fallacy I keep hearing from Angels fans is that Mike Napoli wasn't one of Mike Scioscia's "guys" or he wasn't wanted in Anaheim or he wasn't going to get playing time anyway or the Angels didn't want to pay him the $6 million or so he was going to win in arbitration. Maybe, but by trading Napoli, the Angels made the Blue Jays better and themselves considerably worse. The Angels will go into 2011 with Jeff Mathis, a career .199/.265/.311* hitter, as their starting catcher. But this post isn't about how bad Mathis is, and he is bad, it's about how underrated Napoli is compared to Wells.

*I accidentally copied Mathis' OBP/SLG/OPS line first and thought we were all terribly misinformed. Then I realized I missed the actual AVG/OBP/SLG line and Mathis is worse than I ever imagined.

I don't think the majority of people do realize that Napoli has been a better hitter than Wells over the past three or four seasons and will probably continue to be so over the duration of Wells' cashrific contract. For illustrative purposes, let's take a look at the career Weighted On Base Averages (wOBA) for Napoli and Wells. For those new to wOBA, you can read about it here. Click image to enlarge.



As you can see, Napoli has had a higher wOBA for each season since 2007 except for 2010. The Wells supporters like to point at the bounce back season of 2010 hoping it is an encouraging sign for things to come. Unfortunately, Wells' big 2010 season was aided by a massive power spike in Toronto.

	Park Factors HR Rates
Year	Angels Stadium	Rogers Center
2010	0.825	1.358
2009	1.22	0.99
2008	0.933	0.926

So I would caution any Angels fans who are hoping Wells will be bringing 30 home run power to Anaheim. Wells has as good a chance of repeating his 2010 season as I do being Scarlett Johansson's rebound. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong in both cases.

The other concern about Wells is his splits. He hasn't hit lefties over the past two seasons and was atrocious on the road last year. Napoli isn't going to hit for a high average and he struggled with right handers this past season but absolutely crushes southpaws. He is also a pretty consistent hitter at home or on the road.

	Vernon Wells
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	27 HR .291/.342/.553	4 HR .195/.289/.354	20 HR .321/.363/.628	11 HR .227/.301/.407
2009	12 HR .278/.322/.425	3 HR .206/.279/.323	8 HR .214/.285/.348	7 HR .300/.335/.444
2008	18 HR .290/.328/.509	2 HR .333/.394/.455	11 HR .296/.347/.502	9 HR .304/.339/.490

	Mike Napoli
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	16 HR .208/.277/.423	10 HR .305/.399/.567	13 HR .240/.324/.480	13 HR .237/.307/.456
2009	14 HR .251/.325/.453	6 HR .337/.422/.611	10 HR .230/.332/.480	10 HR .308/.365/.514
2008	16 HR .270/.364/.590	4 HR .286/.406/.571	10 HR .250/.356/.542	10 HR .299/.394/.636

I would love to be wrong about Wells but the numbers suggest he's on the decline and has lost the ability to hit left handed pitching. His spike last season was a clear product of the Rogers Center becoming a hitters park for 2010. I doubt this is one of those "change of scenery will do him good" scenarios. But who knows, maybe the Angels have the Fountain of Youth hidden in the outfield rocks.

Napoli, on the other hand, is poised for a big 2011 season and won't cost the Jays the price of a small island.

As an Angels fan, it isn't fun being the bearer of doom and gloom.

Mike Napoli's Golden Sombrero

A golden sombrero is awarded to a player who manages to strike out four times in a single game (real golden sombrero not included). It's quite the feat unless you're Ryan Howard or Mark Reynolds. Unfortunately, cycles and no-hitters are all the rage nowadays. Not for me, though. I will pour over the box scores to bring you the finest at swinging and missing.

When it rains, it pours. I went five whole days without handing out a sombrero and tonight I get to distribute two. Donkey rides for everybody! I meant that in the cleanest way possible by the way. My first giant hat wearing buddy tonight was Jason Heyward. The second hat, unfortunately, goes out to a member of my Angels. Mike Napoli is going to hit for some power and swing and miss a bunch. Which one did he do tonight? Hmm, if you read the title of this post, this next part won't be too suspenseful.

Top 2nd: Napoli struck out swinging against Chad Billingsley. Three pitches. He watched the first two.

Top 5th: Napoli struck out swinging against Billingsley again.

Top 7th: Napoli struck out swinging against Ramon Troncoso. He took a ball in this at bat. I assume something shiny in the crowd distracted him.

Top 9th: Napoli struck out looking against Justin Miller. Hey, can't blame him for trying something new.

The Angels crushed the Dodgers 10-1 so Napoli's 0-5 night didn't hurt them. It does have to be a little concerning that he managed to go 0-5 with 4 strikeouts while only seeing 15 pitches. Go read that last sentence again. I'm now going to create a tag called "no patience for patience." Thank you and goodnight. Tip your servers, they're people too.