Time To Discuss Gary Sheffield And The HOF

Gary Sheffield officially hung them up on Thursday after a 22 season career. My initial reaction, after a cursory glance at his stats, was that he is Hall of Fame worthy.
See? I guess now would be a good time to show my work even though I might not agree with my original thesis anymore. The stats are there. The 509 home runs are good for 24th all time. His .292/.393/.514 line is solid. While he never won an MVP, he did have three top five finishes and six top 10s. According to Baseball-Reference, similar batters to him include Mel Ott, Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle.

But then, against the advice of my therapist, I went digging through some Wins Above Replacement data. Sheffield finished with a 65.8 WAR which is right in that 60-70 HOF bubble. Larry Walker finished with a 72.2 WAR and received 20.3% of the 2011 Hall of Fame voting. So we might not want to start betting on which hat Sheff will be enshrined in just yet.

Sheffield won't even have the highest WAR of first time eligible outfielders in five years. Jim Edmonds also just retired after not being healthy enough to try one last run with the Cardinals. I already wrote about Edmonds' HOF candidacy and I was leaning toward imaginary voting yes. So I guess I'm leaning yes on Sheffield too. His case just isn't as slam dunk as I initially thought. I mean, look at the WAR Graph people.


Of course, if Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell aren't in by then, the whole system is broken anyway.

My first draft of this post was longer and nerdier. But I accidentally erased that one and lost interest in writing it again. Deal with it.

Jim Edmonds Delays His Hall Of Fame Argument

Thanks to Twitter and Fangraphs, one of the most popular things for baseball fans to is argue over a player's Hall of Fame candidacy years and years before said player appears on a ballot. After some careful research, I've concluded everyone is always wrong about everything. No matter how much time is spent on analysis, there is going to be some yahoo who still thinks pitcher wins and RBI determine the greatness of a player. We might as well just open the Hall of Debate.

For Jim Edmonds though, it looks like his five year countdown to gracing a ballot won't start for another year. Edmonds recently inked a minor league deal with the Cardinals that included an invitation to Spring Training...

Where Edmonds fits into the Cardinals' roster is unclear.

The team Will Carry several bench/outfielders into spring training, including Allen Craig and Jon Jay. Craig, a righthanded hitter, will also get playing time at third base. Jay, a lefthanded batter, can play all three outfield positions. Jay not only is the incumbent for the role that Edmonds could ostensibly take, Jay also has Edmonds' signature No. 15.

The 40-year-old missed all of the 2009 season and spent time with the Brewers and Reds in 2010. In 272 plate appearances, Edmonds hit 11 home runs and a .276/.342/.504 line. His 2.8 WAR was over a win more than Jay and Craig combined. I always liked Edmonds and was sad to see him leave Anaheim. But Adam Kennedy was a beast in that 2002 run to the championship.

It's never too early, right? If Edmonds were to retire today, would his resume pass the Hall of Fame eyeball test?

Jim Edmonds
393 HR, .284 AVG, .376 OBP, .537 SLG, .383 wOBA, 68.1 WAR

He has a case. But if Tim Raines can't get in, I wouldn't start writing a speech just yet. Baseball-Reference lists Ellis Burks, Duke Snider and Andruw Jones as Edmonds' closest comps. And of course, here is their cumulative WAR Grid by age.


Snider is in the Hall. Burks debuted and fell off of the ballot in 2010. Edmonds and Jones will have some pretty interesting cases. Jones was really, really good before mysteriously and completely falling apart. I did see him a little too often at the Pink Pony in Atlanta now that I think about it.

I'd have to think long and hard about giving Edmonds my imaginary vote but right now I'm leaning Hall of Famer. Plus, who knows what metrics we'll be using in five or six years or if we'll be enslaved by robots by then.

The Montreal Expos Draft History

The recent MLB Network production of Triumph and Tragedy has rekindled my old feelings for the Montreal Expos. The special is fantastic and highly recommended even though it could have used a little more Jonah Keri for my taste. The strike shortened 1994 season really was a tragedy for the Expos not only ruining their World Series bound season but it financially sunk their battleship. The dominant team from the year before was broken up before the 1995 season and they could never recover, leading to their eventual move to Strasburg DC.

The Expos knew they couldn't compete in the free agent market and turned their focus to home-growing their own system. I already wrote about my favorite Expos and posted the must see fan video. But the special got me thinking about their draft history. So I figured I might highlight some of their more memorable draft picks. They had a nice eye for talent highlighted by signing Vladimir Guerrero, trading for Pedro Martinez and drafting (not signing) Mark McGwire. But I'm just going to take a look a draft picks for this special Canadian version of hop in the way back machine. (All info from Baseball-Reference)

1972
Gary Carter - The Hall Of Fame catcher was draft in the 3rd round (53). He played for the Expos from 1974-1984 racking up 52.3 of his career 66.3 WAR. In 1984, Carter was traded to the Mets for Hubie Brooks and some loose change found in the GM's office.

1975
Andre Dawson - Drafted in the 11th round (250), Dawson played from 1976-1986 in Montreal. He recorded 43.6 of his career 57.0 WAR during those years. The Hawk and his career .323 OBP were inducted into the Hall of Fame this year as an Expo.

1977
Tim Raines - The Rock was drafted in the 5th round (106). From 1980 to 1990, he was the second best lead off man in baseball and racked up 46 of his career 64.6 WAR. Raines gets the Hall of Fame support he deserves from the sabermetric community but the voters are still a little grumpy about, I assume, the cocaine usage. Which of course is way different than Willie Mays' amphetamine use just a couple of decades prior. Rock should eventually get in but it's a shame he'll have to wait.

1979
Tim Wallach - The catcher spent basically all of his productive years in Montreal collecting 31.1 of his 31.3 WAR from 1980 to 1992. He was the Expos' 1st round pick (10).

Andres Galaragga - The undrafted free agent didn't have a great career in Montreal from 1985-1991 (8.6 WAR) but they managed to turn him into Ken Hill for their magical run in 1994.

1984
Larry Walker - The amateur free agent was a beast in the outfield from 1989-1994 posting a 19.3 WAR. In the great fire sale of 1995, he was granted free agency netting the Expos nothing in return for one of their cornerstone players.

1985
Randy Johnson - The Expos didn't give The Big Unit much of chance giving him just 10 starts before dealing him to Seattle for Mark Langston in 1989. But they still get some credit for drafting him in the 2nd round (36).

1987
Delino DeShields - The first round pick (12) was a fan favorite from 1990-1993 while collecting an 8.6 WAR. DeShields was traded in the 1993 offseason for a 160 pound pitcher from the Dodgers. While the Expos were crushed for the trade, Pedro Martinez ended up being fairly decent.

1988
Marquis Grissom - The Expos drafted their star center fielder in the 3rd round (76) and he posted a 17.8 WAR from 1989-2004. But he'd be another casualty of the 1995 fire sale when he was traded to the Braves for Esteban Yan, a bag of Cheetos, Tony Tarasco, a case of half-filled Coca Cola glass bottles and Roberto Kelly. A fair haul for a center fielder who helped bring a World Series championship to Atlanta.

1990
Rondell White - The first round (24) outfielder put up a respectable 17.7 WAR in his stint in Montreal from 1993-2000 before bouncing around both leagues.

1994
Javier Vasquez - The 5th round (140) pitcher had some good seasons in Montreal from 1998-2003 posting a 16.1 WAR before being traded to the Yankees. If you remove his 2 stints in New York, Vasquez has had a solid career.

Just for fun.

1999
Brandon Phillips - Given up on early after being drafted in the 2nd round (57) but more on him in a minute.

In The Year 2000
Grady Sizemore - Taken in the 3rd round (75).

Cliff Lee - Taken in the 4th round (105).

Jason Bay - Drafted in the 22nd round (645) and traded to the Mets in 2002. Then he was traded to San Diego in 2002 and flipped to Pittsburgh in 2003 before he was traded to Boston in 2008. He was the Mets big free agent signing in 2009 and, I assume, they're trying to trade him to the Washington Nationals to complete the circle of life.

Bartolo Colon Trade
In 2002, the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. The Indians didn't have much patience with Phillips either flipping him to Cincinnati. Cliff Lee has also been passed around quite a bit but might be the best pitcher in baseball and figures to sign a massive contract with the Yankees in the offseason. Grady Sizemore seemed like he was well on his way to multiple MVPs before injuries have stalled out his career. But for a while, this looked like the most lopsided trade in baseball history since Babe Ruth was traded for some theatre tickets and the rights to a Muscial To Be Named Later. Is that right? I'm not good with history.

Les Expos de Montréal

Yeah, I only watched that a dozen times today. The MLB Network will air an hour long special on the Expos Sunday focusing on their magical 1994 season and terrible relocation to Strasburg, which I assume is the eventual renaming of Washington DC. I always liked the Expos but I have an unusual fascination with Canada. It started with hockey, took a strange turn with poutine and ended with Degrassi: The Next Generation. Who knew Jimmy Brooks would become a famous rapper?

As long as I'm writing an Expos post, we might as well take a look at my favorite Expo players. Sorry Gary Carter and Andre Dawson but I spent most of the 80's trying to learn how to play the drums in my basement. Turns out I have no musical talent whatsoever.

1. Vladimir Guerrero
This shouldn't come as a surprise considering Vlad is my favorite baseball player despite relocating to Arlington from Orange County this year. Vladdy was an Expo from 1996 to 2003 with 234 home runs, 123 stolen bases and a .323/.390/.588 slash line. In the year 2000, Vlad hit 44 homers and .345/.410/.664 but finished 6th in MVP voting behind Jeff Kent, some guy named Barry Bonds and others. Vlad is still on a Hall of Fame career path even though the painted concrete Montreal tried to pass off as outfield grass destroyed his knees.

2. Tim Raines
Admittedly, I didn't watch much of Rock's career in Montreal but I'm one of Raines' big Hall of Fame supporters. From 1979 to 1990, Rock had 96 homers, 634 stolen bases and a .301/.390/.438 line. He's the second best lead off hitter in the history of baseball but gets a bad rep because he dabbled in the cocaine. Like you didn't do something stupid in the 80's.

3. Pedro Martinez
Pedro was only in Montreal for 3 years but his 1997 season was incredible. He won the NL Cy Young thanks to a 1.90 ERA and 13 complete games. Pedro is the third Hall of Famer on this list but maybe the most deserving. His peak years rival any other pitcher who ever threw a ball. Just go look at 1997, 1999 and 2000. Stunning.

4. Moises Alou
Alou spent 1992-1996 in Montreal before floating around the rest of the National League. Alou hit .293/.350/.490 in his tenure with the Expos and was roughly 20% better than league average. His career year came in 1998 with Houston but in 1994 Alou was on an MVP pace before the work stoppage. He was hitting .339/.397/.592 going into August 12th.

5. Larry Walker
Walker is an interesting Hall of Fame case. He has a career .400 OBP and had unbelievable seasons in 1997 and 1999. Sure some of that might have been Coors Field aided but it's still a pretty impressive 17-year career. Walker was in Montreal from 1989 to 1994 and posted a respectable .281/.357/.483 line with 99 homers mixed in.

Sentimental Favorite: Mike Lansing
I honestly can't remember why I liked Lansing so much but I was a big fan during his Montreal days. His .276/.333/.405 is mediocre enough and I don't think he played remarkable defense at second base. But yeah, for whatever reason I rooted for Lansing during his 5-year stay in Canada. What do I know though? I have an authentic J.T. Snow California Angels jersey.

[h/t The Stew]