Weekly Cup Of Joe: Tim Raines Edition

I prefer to think of this as more of a tribute to Fire Joe Morgan than a blatant ripoff. But who are we really kidding here?

I took the last couple of weeks of from Joe Morgan's chats over at the Four Letter because I was afraid of all the brain damage. But it's Tuesday and I'm a masochist so I strapped on my special helmet and dove into this week's Joe Chat. Instead of just blasting away at some nonsensical answer, I'm actually using this question and answer for a jumping off point for something I was planning on writing anyway. Let's grab that nugget of wisdom...

Tito (Brooklyn)

What do you think is more important from the leadoff hitter in a batting lineup: speed or OBP?

Joe Morgan (11:25 AM)

A perfect leadoff hitter does both. You want guys to get on base. There were a lot of guys who hit first and got on base but didn't have speed. Wade Boggs comes to mind. He got on base a lot and gave his team a chance to score runs. Now if a guy gets on base and has speed, he can help the team score runs by himself. If he doesn't have speed, then you can still get on base and help the team score runs within the team concept.

Joe Morgan (11:27 AM)

The perfect blend is getting on base with speed and Rickey Henderson comes to mind with that. But as we both know Rickey and Boggs are both in the hall of fame.

Rickey Henderson comes to mind, huh Joe? Well Rickey is the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of baseball with a career .401 OBP and the all time steals record of 1406 (second is Lou Brock with 938). Henderson was the prototype for leadoff hitters, the perfect combo. Somewhere along the line, managers fell too in love with the speed and now Ozzie Guillen has no problem leading off with Juan Pierre and his .348 career OBP. Sure speed at the top of the order is nice but getting on base is, well, the most important part of baseball from the hitter aspect. Or not making an out but now we're just arguing semantics. Rickey got on base 40 percent of the time. Then with the combination of his speed and forcing the pitcher to throw from the stretch, he gave the rest of his lineup the advantage. Which leads me to the next best leadoff hitter.

Why isn't Tim Raines a first ballot Hall of Famer? No, really, I'm asking. By the way, my love for Raines has nothing to do with my recent affair with the Expos that started here and continued here with their draft history and will end in the not foreseeable future. Okay, maybe that has a little something to do with it but it's mainly stat based love. Raines is 5th all time in stolen bases with 808 and sports a career .294/.385/.425 line. He was overshadowed by Rickey but that's certainly no excuse for his lack of Hall of Fame votes.

Raines is tied with Ozzie Smith for the 82nd best career WAR of 64.60 according to Baseball-Reference. Now, I can't really get a grip on Raines' fielding because Fangraphs' Total Zone has him all over the place throughout his career and there aren't any UZR stats for him except for the brief 2002 stint with the Marlins. Either way, WAR puts him into the top 100 players of all time which should get him much more HOF love. Still not convinced? Go check out our friends at Raines30 who have put together Rock's Hall of Fame case better than I can.

I'm not sure what the argument is against Tim Raines. I don't even hear a big backlash against his drug use either. There's no stat based reason I can see. How about some more nerdy stats? Rickey's career wOBA .386, Rock's career wOBA .374. Raines has the advantage in batting average (.294-.279) and slugging (.425-.419) but trails in the all important leadoff categories of on base (.401-.385) and steals (1406-808). Rickey was clearly the prototype but if Raines wasn't built in his image then I don't know who was.

The Sky Is Falling: Stephen Strasburg

It looks like freshman phenom/future Hall of Famer, Stephen Strasburg, will be headed to the disabled list for the second time this season. Yet, that collective exhale of breath you felt earlier did come from Washington D.C. Strasburg left Saturday's game in the 5th inning after grimacing from an apparent arm injury. Early half-glass-emptiers suspected Strasburg may have torn a tendon which would result in surgery and a year layoff. From my quick math, that would be the equivalent to the strike-shortened 1994 season for the Montreal Expos. Almost certain financial doom, years in last place and eventual relocation to some crime laden southern city, let's say Virginia Beach.

But fortunately for the "fans" who sell out Nationals Park only when Strasburg pitches, the kid's tendon didn't fall out of his arm...

Strasburg strained a tendon in his right forearm over the weekend, and Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said Monday the team would "proceed with caution" with the prized pitcher.

If by "proceed with caution" you mean shut him down for the year, I completely agree with this decision. Sure the Expos Nats will lose some pretty good revenue from the one or two more home starts he could make this season but Strasburg has already thrown more innings than he did last year. Unless Dusty Baker is consulting on pitcher usage, it's time to shut the kid down and build toward next season.

The Sky is Falling
A second DL stint for the 22-year-old can't be exciting news. I'm no scout but I haven't heard or seen anything about a hitch in his mechanics that suggests a proneness to injuries. Hopefully it's just some randomness even though he said he pitched through a similar injury in college. As a hopeful new Nationals fan, I'm hoping he shrugs this off and cruises past Cy Young's win record and Nolan Ryan's strikeout record in the next, um, 30 or so years of world dominance. As a glass-half-empty guy (what?, I'm thirsty), I'm afraid of a Ben McDonald/Mark Prior fall from relevance.

Let's all hope for the best because he's good for baseball. 92 strikeouts in 68 innings as a rookie is exciting stuff. I should know, I struck out 68 hitters over 3 months in the summer of 1991. I threw a devastating Wiffle Ball slurve.

[awesome drawing from Francis Hogan via Fedral Baseball]

The Montreal Expos Draft History

The recent MLB Network production of Triumph and Tragedy has rekindled my old feelings for the Montreal Expos. The special is fantastic and highly recommended even though it could have used a little more Jonah Keri for my taste. The strike shortened 1994 season really was a tragedy for the Expos not only ruining their World Series bound season but it financially sunk their battleship. The dominant team from the year before was broken up before the 1995 season and they could never recover, leading to their eventual move to Strasburg DC.

The Expos knew they couldn't compete in the free agent market and turned their focus to home-growing their own system. I already wrote about my favorite Expos and posted the must see fan video. But the special got me thinking about their draft history. So I figured I might highlight some of their more memorable draft picks. They had a nice eye for talent highlighted by signing Vladimir Guerrero, trading for Pedro Martinez and drafting (not signing) Mark McGwire. But I'm just going to take a look a draft picks for this special Canadian version of hop in the way back machine. (All info from Baseball-Reference)

1972
Gary Carter - The Hall Of Fame catcher was draft in the 3rd round (53). He played for the Expos from 1974-1984 racking up 52.3 of his career 66.3 WAR. In 1984, Carter was traded to the Mets for Hubie Brooks and some loose change found in the GM's office.

1975
Andre Dawson - Drafted in the 11th round (250), Dawson played from 1976-1986 in Montreal. He recorded 43.6 of his career 57.0 WAR during those years. The Hawk and his career .323 OBP were inducted into the Hall of Fame this year as an Expo.

1977
Tim Raines - The Rock was drafted in the 5th round (106). From 1980 to 1990, he was the second best lead off man in baseball and racked up 46 of his career 64.6 WAR. Raines gets the Hall of Fame support he deserves from the sabermetric community but the voters are still a little grumpy about, I assume, the cocaine usage. Which of course is way different than Willie Mays' amphetamine use just a couple of decades prior. Rock should eventually get in but it's a shame he'll have to wait.

1979
Tim Wallach - The catcher spent basically all of his productive years in Montreal collecting 31.1 of his 31.3 WAR from 1980 to 1992. He was the Expos' 1st round pick (10).

Andres Galaragga - The undrafted free agent didn't have a great career in Montreal from 1985-1991 (8.6 WAR) but they managed to turn him into Ken Hill for their magical run in 1994.

1984
Larry Walker - The amateur free agent was a beast in the outfield from 1989-1994 posting a 19.3 WAR. In the great fire sale of 1995, he was granted free agency netting the Expos nothing in return for one of their cornerstone players.

1985
Randy Johnson - The Expos didn't give The Big Unit much of chance giving him just 10 starts before dealing him to Seattle for Mark Langston in 1989. But they still get some credit for drafting him in the 2nd round (36).

1987
Delino DeShields - The first round pick (12) was a fan favorite from 1990-1993 while collecting an 8.6 WAR. DeShields was traded in the 1993 offseason for a 160 pound pitcher from the Dodgers. While the Expos were crushed for the trade, Pedro Martinez ended up being fairly decent.

1988
Marquis Grissom - The Expos drafted their star center fielder in the 3rd round (76) and he posted a 17.8 WAR from 1989-2004. But he'd be another casualty of the 1995 fire sale when he was traded to the Braves for Esteban Yan, a bag of Cheetos, Tony Tarasco, a case of half-filled Coca Cola glass bottles and Roberto Kelly. A fair haul for a center fielder who helped bring a World Series championship to Atlanta.

1990
Rondell White - The first round (24) outfielder put up a respectable 17.7 WAR in his stint in Montreal from 1993-2000 before bouncing around both leagues.

1994
Javier Vasquez - The 5th round (140) pitcher had some good seasons in Montreal from 1998-2003 posting a 16.1 WAR before being traded to the Yankees. If you remove his 2 stints in New York, Vasquez has had a solid career.

Just for fun.

1999
Brandon Phillips - Given up on early after being drafted in the 2nd round (57) but more on him in a minute.

In The Year 2000
Grady Sizemore - Taken in the 3rd round (75).

Cliff Lee - Taken in the 4th round (105).

Jason Bay - Drafted in the 22nd round (645) and traded to the Mets in 2002. Then he was traded to San Diego in 2002 and flipped to Pittsburgh in 2003 before he was traded to Boston in 2008. He was the Mets big free agent signing in 2009 and, I assume, they're trying to trade him to the Washington Nationals to complete the circle of life.

Bartolo Colon Trade
In 2002, the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. The Indians didn't have much patience with Phillips either flipping him to Cincinnati. Cliff Lee has also been passed around quite a bit but might be the best pitcher in baseball and figures to sign a massive contract with the Yankees in the offseason. Grady Sizemore seemed like he was well on his way to multiple MVPs before injuries have stalled out his career. But for a while, this looked like the most lopsided trade in baseball history since Babe Ruth was traded for some theatre tickets and the rights to a Muscial To Be Named Later. Is that right? I'm not good with history.

Les Expos de Montréal

Yeah, I only watched that a dozen times today. The MLB Network will air an hour long special on the Expos Sunday focusing on their magical 1994 season and terrible relocation to Strasburg, which I assume is the eventual renaming of Washington DC. I always liked the Expos but I have an unusual fascination with Canada. It started with hockey, took a strange turn with poutine and ended with Degrassi: The Next Generation. Who knew Jimmy Brooks would become a famous rapper?

As long as I'm writing an Expos post, we might as well take a look at my favorite Expo players. Sorry Gary Carter and Andre Dawson but I spent most of the 80's trying to learn how to play the drums in my basement. Turns out I have no musical talent whatsoever.

1. Vladimir Guerrero
This shouldn't come as a surprise considering Vlad is my favorite baseball player despite relocating to Arlington from Orange County this year. Vladdy was an Expo from 1996 to 2003 with 234 home runs, 123 stolen bases and a .323/.390/.588 slash line. In the year 2000, Vlad hit 44 homers and .345/.410/.664 but finished 6th in MVP voting behind Jeff Kent, some guy named Barry Bonds and others. Vlad is still on a Hall of Fame career path even though the painted concrete Montreal tried to pass off as outfield grass destroyed his knees.

2. Tim Raines
Admittedly, I didn't watch much of Rock's career in Montreal but I'm one of Raines' big Hall of Fame supporters. From 1979 to 1990, Rock had 96 homers, 634 stolen bases and a .301/.390/.438 line. He's the second best lead off hitter in the history of baseball but gets a bad rep because he dabbled in the cocaine. Like you didn't do something stupid in the 80's.

3. Pedro Martinez
Pedro was only in Montreal for 3 years but his 1997 season was incredible. He won the NL Cy Young thanks to a 1.90 ERA and 13 complete games. Pedro is the third Hall of Famer on this list but maybe the most deserving. His peak years rival any other pitcher who ever threw a ball. Just go look at 1997, 1999 and 2000. Stunning.

4. Moises Alou
Alou spent 1992-1996 in Montreal before floating around the rest of the National League. Alou hit .293/.350/.490 in his tenure with the Expos and was roughly 20% better than league average. His career year came in 1998 with Houston but in 1994 Alou was on an MVP pace before the work stoppage. He was hitting .339/.397/.592 going into August 12th.

5. Larry Walker
Walker is an interesting Hall of Fame case. He has a career .400 OBP and had unbelievable seasons in 1997 and 1999. Sure some of that might have been Coors Field aided but it's still a pretty impressive 17-year career. Walker was in Montreal from 1989 to 1994 and posted a respectable .281/.357/.483 line with 99 homers mixed in.

Sentimental Favorite: Mike Lansing
I honestly can't remember why I liked Lansing so much but I was a big fan during his Montreal days. His .276/.333/.405 is mediocre enough and I don't think he played remarkable defense at second base. But yeah, for whatever reason I rooted for Lansing during his 5-year stay in Canada. What do I know though? I have an authentic J.T. Snow California Angels jersey.

[h/t The Stew]