Why Is Vlad Guerrero Still Homeless?

Vladimir Guerrero is coming off of a rebound season in 2010 hitting 29 home runs and a .300/.345/.496 slash line. But he was signed to just a one-year deal with Texas and now he's stuck in free agency limbo while the market dries up around him. Guerrero doesn't have many potential landing spots remaining since he didn't opt for the Six Million Dollar Man surgery and runs like an arthritic deer on ice. I love Vladdy but watching him play the outfield in the World Series was embarrassing for everyone involved.

The Orioles seem like the most logical destination because, well, they have officially offered Vlad a deal. The O's are standing pat and aren't willing to budge from their $4.5-5 million offer. But, Buster Olney reported that the famous mystery team has surfaced...

The Vladimir Guerrero talks will gather some momentum in the next 48 hours, one way or another. The Orioles have an offer on the table; last week, Guerrero's side informed them that they had an offer worth $8 million in play. It's not clear which team would have made the $8 million offer.

In this case, I'm inclined to believe the mystery team is actually a figment of the Guerrero camp's imagination. MLB Trade Rumors identified four potential fits for the 35-year-old DH in the Orioles, Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels. It's hard to imagine any of those teams offering $8 million for what would basically have to be a part time designated hitter.

If you take a closer look at his bounce back 2010 numbers, there's cause for more trepidation in offering Vlad a lucrative deal. All you have to do is look at his splits. So maybe the Angels would offer him $8 million and perhaps a couple of extra years to boot.

Vlad has always crushed the ball in Arlington and that certainly gave his 2010 season a boost.

Split	PA	H	2B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Home	336	98	16	16	.315	.354	.527	.881
Away	307	80	11	13	.284	.336	.461	.796

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/3/2011.

He gave up 31 points of batting average, 18 points of on base percentage and 66 points of slugging percentage. It's not the worst split I've ever seen but it's not an encouraging sign for an aging hitter.

Split	PA	H	2B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	354	103	14	20	.319	.364	.554	.919
2nd Half	289	75	13	9	.278	.322	.426	.748

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/3/2011.

Vlad also tired down the stretch and hit .220/.242/.271 in the playoffs. Splitting time might keep him fresher but surely $8 million is too much to pay for a part time hitter.

Let's take a quick look at the projections for Vlad which assume he's going to be an everyday DH.

Bill James
586 PA, 26 HR, .304/.363/.505, .373 wOBA

MARCEL
562 PA, 22 HR, .284/.335/.466, .345 wOBA

James seems high but let's split the difference and call Vlad a .360 wOBA hitter as a full time DH. That would be exactly what his wOBA was in 2010 when he was a 2.6 WAR player. That would make him worth about $10 million for 2011. But as I said, if he signs anywhere but Baltimore, he is likely to be a part time hitter.

The $8 million offer would make sense for one team but, unfortunately for me, that team hasn't been thinking clearly this off-season. Dave Cameron suggested that the Angels sign Vlad but his reasoning makes too much sense for the Halo's front office. The Angels could get some nice production from Guerrero at DH but, more importantly, his playing time could prevent Bobby Abreu's 2012 option from vesting. It's almost too good to be true like a magical clause that could void Vernon Wells' contract.

My guess is that this plays out for another few days and the Orioles kick it up to around $6 million and sign him.

My Obligatory Vernon Wells Trade Post

Angels fans were promised a "big splash" by General Manager Tony Reagins and, dammit, he delivered. By now, thousands of words have been written about the Angels decision to send Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera to Toronto for Vernon Wells and his bloated $80+ million contract. The trade, as you should know, has been universally crushed from the Angels point of view except for the frighteningly optimistic James of True Grich.

As the resident Angels fan, I feel obligated to post something about the trade even though I don't think I have much to add. I'd love to be optimistic and I do like Wells but I'm afraid advanced metrics and the Internet have ruined by ability to be a "die hard" fan anymore. It's almost sad in a way.

The starved for offense Angels traded for a center fielder who hit 31 home runs, 44 doubles and a .273/.331/.515 line in 2010. Twelve-year-old me would have been ecstatic about this trade. Instead, I immediately began trying to figure out how much of Wells' contract Toronto would have to eat for the deal to make sense. If they ate $30M + the $10M or so saved from Rivera and Napoli, then Wells would just have to be a 2.5 WAR player each of the four years of the remaining contract. That is providing Wells will move to a corner outfield spot and not cost the Angels runs by playing center. That was my rough estimate anyway.

Of course, the Blue Jays only sent $5 million back to Anaheim and the trade looks like a financial disaster for the Angels. But as a fan, I kept digging through Fangraphs and scouring Twitter to find a silver lining. Much like quicksand though, the harder I tried, the worse it got. I could ramble on about his splits or declining defense or what $75 million could have bought but it's all rather depressing.

It's hard to imagine this is the same Tony Reagins who orchestrated the heist of Dan Haren last season. But what's done is done now. No amount of analysis or whining will reverse this deal. Unless you have a time machine, do you have a time machine? No? Well, then, all Angels fans can do is continue to support the team and root for Wells to prove the pundits wrong or at least less wrong. That hasn't exactly worked with that Gary Matthews Jr signing but at least the Angels are only paying him $10 million for one more season.

The Mike Trout era can't get here fast enough.