Julio Teheran Could Win No. 5 Spot

Prospect rankings are out and it appears that the Braves have a right handed pitcher who might be pretty good. Julio Teheran made a big jump in Keith Law's rankings moving from 63 in 2010 all the way up to 6th in this year's rankings. The Braves seem to be on the same page and realize they might not be able to send him back to the minors after Spring Training (from MLB)...

Teheran is one of the finest pitching prospects to ever pass through the Braves organization and they certainly don't have any plans to rush his development.

But based on what they've seen from him, there are some members of the Braves organization who believe Teheran will make it difficult for them to determine when or maybe even if they should send him to back to Minor League camp.

Teheran turned 20 on January 27th and pitched 142.2 innings between A-AA last season. So Teheran is still somewhat of a long shot to make the April rotation.

But if you look at Teheran's 2010 season, you can see why the Braves are optimistic...

League	IP	K/9	K/BB	ERA	FIP
A	39.1	10.3	4.5	1.14	2.39
A+	63.1	10.8	5.85	2.98	2.88
AA	40	8.55	2.24	3.38	3.3

I can't wait for Spring Training. This slow news cycle is killing me. I almost wrote about Adam Kennedy's DUI instead of this post. In hindsight, I'm not sure I made the right choice.

Felix Hernandez's Role In The AL Cy Young

With 7 weeks to go in the season, it's still a little early for award predicting. But Geoff Baker had to write something for The Seattle Times and I suppose I need to write something here. Baker believes Hernandez, despite his 8-10 record, can make a legitimate run because he's in the top 5 in Innings (1st), ERA (4th), Strikeouts (2nd) and Complete Games (2nd). Then Baker blows my mind talking about King Felix being in the top 5 of FIP and xFIP. Geoff Baker, you had me at FIP.

Felix Hernandez is having another great CY Young type season that I guess I didn't even really notice because he is a Mariner. So, I guess it's about time for me to take a quick look at my fictional Cy Young ballot. The ballot has been expanded to 5 spots from 3 spots for what might as well be called the Keith Law Law. For my imaginary ballot, I'll be ignoring wins (sorry Carl Pavano) because just stop it already.

1. Cliff Lee
Lee has been downright masterful with his command of the strike zone. His 15.22 K/BB ratio would not only shatter Brett Saberhagan's 11.00 ratio from 1994 but make Jered Weaver look like a jerk with his second best 4.44 this year. Lee (3.25) has the second best xFIP in the AL and has the most complete games in the league with 7. He also has the best WAR (6.0) and WPA (3.72) in the AL.

2. Felix Hernandez
After Lee, the rest of the best are a pretty tight group but King Felix is as deserving as any. The innings and strikeouts are impressive but Baker didn't mention that Hernandez is also tied for 5th in hits. His .294 BABIP suggests he hasn't really been unlucky in that area either. He's 4th in xFIP (3.36) but only .11 points off from Cliff Lee. He's also 3rd in WAR (4.8) and 4th in WPA (2.80) in the AL. The 10 or 11 wins he'll end up with will certainly hurt him though. It's unfortunate for him that your sister scores more every year than the Mariners.

3. Jered Weaver
Weaver is flying under the radar despite leading the AL in strikeouts. He was placed in the ace role for the Halos after Lackey departed and has certainly lived up to it. He's 5th in xFIP (3.38) and 2nd in K/BB (4.44). He's 5th in WAR (4.4) at Fangraphs or tied for 1st with Lee (4.7) at B-R. I should note that I use Fangraphs for most of my stats unless Baseball-Reference helps my argument better. He's also 2nd in WPA (3.34) in the AL. If he can get up to 15-16 wins from the 11 he's sitting at, he might have a good chance at running up Cliff Lee. Unless Pavano gets to 20 wins, then all bets are off.

4. Jon Lester
Lester has the most wins (13) on my ballot. His BB/9 ratio is up this year from his previous 2 years which is keeping him from being in the top 5 in K/BB but he is 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (165). He's 3rd in xFIP (3.26) just .01 away from Cliff Lee. Lester is 4th in WAR (4.6) and 3rd in WPA (3.24). Considering his wins and market, he'll probably end up finishing much higher than 4th.

5. Francisco Liriano
Liriano isn't close to the top 10 in innings pitched but he's been exceptional when he's throwing. Despite the fewer innings, he's still 4th in strikeouts (160). He leads the AL in both FIP (2.19) and xFIP (2.94). Liriano is 2nd in WAR (5.6)but only 11th in WPA (2.24). Liriano will probably only sniff the ballot if some of the new more sabermetrically inclined members get some AL Cy Young votes.

Edwin Jackson Throws A No-Hitter On A Few Pitches

I thought the big story a story tonight at Tropicana Field was the Upton Brothers playing against each other for the first time. See? There ended up being a slightly bigger story at The Trop. Edwin Jackson threw the Diamondbacks' second ever no-hitter against his former team. It wasn't pretty but it goes into the record books nonetheless. I usually get pretty excited to cover great moments in poor hitting but I'm not sure that's what happened. Let's take a look at some weird stats from this year's latest no-no.

149 Pitches Obviously, this is the one everyone will be talking about and will serve as a recurring theme in this post. That's a lot of pitches. Excuse me while I pat myself on the back for that nugget of analysis. It's the most pitches thrown in a game since Livan Hernandez in 2005. Now I could sit around here and make Dusty Baker jokes till 3 a.m. but Keith Law already won the night.



8 Walks/6 Strikeouts That is one way to drive up your pitch count, shoot for double digit walks. Of his 149 pitches, Edwin threw 79 for strikes. For context, Strasburg throws 79 strikes in 75 pitches.[citation needed] The 8 walks in a no-hitter is third all-time. Jim Maloney tossed 10 no-hit innings while walking 10 in 1965. B-R doesn't have pitch count data so I'll assume Maloney threw 231 pitches on that beautiful day in August. A.J. Burnett threw a no-hitter in 2001 and walked 9 batters. He threw 129 pitches, 65 for strikes. Perhaps the Edwin-A.J. comp is a good one.

3 Clean Innings Three! Edwin only retired the side in order on three out of nine occasions. I don't want to rain on the kid's parade but there is a good amount of luck going into this no-hitter considering how long he pitched from the stretch.

Edwin Jackson is still only 26-years-old but over his 8-year career he is a 4.71 ERA guy or 5% worse than the league average pitcher. But Edwin's no-hitter and 149 pitches will be the big story until Doug Fister no-hits the Brewers tomorrow without striking anybody out.

Upton Update

B.J.: 0-2 with a walk

Justin: 2-3 with a walk, smacked Edwin Jackson with shaving cream

The Dodgers' Throwaway Draft Pick

When the Dodgers drafted right handed pitcher Zach Lee on Monday night, I wondered if they had any intention on signing him. Obviously, this was a popular opinion but I was there too! The Dodgers franchise is currently being held hostage in the famous McCourt episode of Divorce Court. The Dodgers are in no position to be spending way over slot and they weren't even allowed to offer arbitration to some of their free agents last season which cost them draft picks.

And they will have to go over slot. Zach Lee is committed to LSU to play baseball and quarterback for the Tigers. Before the draft, it was public knowledge that it was going to take at least $3 million to sign Lee. That might not even get it done anymore. LSU football head coach Les Miles recently discussed Lee...

"Zach wants to come to LSU, get a degree and play football and baseball for the Tigers. I met with Zach and his parents today and I think that they are looking at LSU as a great opportunity both academically and athletically. Zach is an outstanding student and he's excited about the college experience."

Lee is also starting summer classes at LSU this week. Keith Law even dropped some insider knowledge in a Klaw chat saying "Rumor of the day had the kid saying $6 million wouldn't get him signed." The Dodgers definitely aren't shelling out $6 mil.

Sure, I'll try to defend the pick. It's never a good idea to intentionally draft a player with no intention to sign him. 1. You lose an entire year of development of a player you could have signed. 2. The compensation pick you receive the following season isn't protected. If you don't sign a player with your comp pick, you don't get another one the following year, leaving you with little leverage. That said, it's possible the Dodgers drafted Lee and will meekly try to sign him and collect the draft pick 28A in next year's draft. This way it looks like the Dodgers tried to sign a nice talent but just couldn't get it done. We tried, fans! After the top three picks, this was a pretty weak draft. Next year's draft is absolutely loaded. An extra pick in next year's draft is a great thing to have. The divorce and future of the franchise should be decided by then and they could be free to overspend next year.

Hey, I didn't say I could defend that move, just that I'd try. Personally, I love the pick. I don't like the Dodgers and I love LSU. Win, win for me.

Half Way Through The First Round...

There was no surprise in the first three picks.

1. Bryce Harper, Nats, outfielder

2. James Tallion, Pirates, RHP

3. Manny Machado, Orioles, SS
I'd like to formally dub him Manny "Macho Man" Machado. Sure, I like alliteration. What's it to you?

4. Christian Colon, Royals, SS
The first surprise of the draft was, surprise, Kansas City. Although, Keith Law called this pretty early today.

5. Drew Pomeranz, Indians, LHP

6. Barrett Loux, DBacks, RHP
Another bit of a surprise but Keith Law and Jim Callis had it.

7. Matt Harvey, Mets, RHP
The Angels drafted him out of high school but wouldn't pony up the proverbial fat cash, jerks.

8. Delino Deshields, Astros, 1987
8. Delino DeShields Jr, Astros, CF
Astros reach here because they didn't think he'd be there at 19. Doesn't make it right though.

9. Karsten Whitson, Padres, RHP
Keith Law loves this guy. Sometimes my analysis skills even blow my mind.

10. Michael Choice, Oakland, OF

11. Deck McGuire, Blue Jays, RHP
One of my favorite names in the draft. Next to Tanner Fudge, of course.

12. Yasmani Grandal, Reds, C

13. Chris Sale, White Sox, LHP
Sale slid out of the top five to the Sox here. Great value.

14. Dylan Covey, Brewers, RHP
The Angels war room is in disbelief. They didn't know other teams were allowed to draft Southern California high school kids.

15. Jake Skole, Rangers, OF

16. Hayden Simpson, Cubs, RHP
Barely cracked Baseball America's top 200. My first reaction, "Who's running the Cubs now, Will Farrell's Harry Caray?"

17. Josh Sale, Rays, OF

18. Kaleb Cowart, Angels, 3B/P
I guess the Angels are willing to spend. Signability is an issue and Cowart wants to be a third baseman even though he projects better as a pitcher.

19. Mike Foltynewicz, Astros, RHP

20. Kolbrin Vitek, Red Sox, 2B

21. Alex Wimmers, Twins, RHP
The last two picks seemed like locks at the beginning of the day.

22. Kellin Deglan, Rangers, C
Remember when the Rangers had TOO many catching prospects?

23. Christian Yelich, Marlins, OF

24. Gary Brown, Giants, CF

25. Zack Cox, Cardinals, 3B
The Cardinals get the steal of the night saving Cox from his Jimmy Clausen-esque free fall. Cox was a projected top ten pick.

Okay, 25 more picks to go including the sandwich round. Mmmm, sandwiches...

Mike Trout: Steal Of 2009 MLB Draft?

Mike Trout was drafted 25th overall in the 2009 draft by the Angels. The high schooler was touted for his athleticism, speed and ability to field center field. As an Angels fan, I was happy with the pick. Trout, in his first full season at class A Cedar Rapids, has 6 home runs and 30 stolen base while hitting .366/.444/.546. Did I mention he won't turn 19 until August?

Anyway, Keith Law made Angels fans very happy today in his ESPN chat.



But wait, it gets better.



Just one year removed from last year's draft, Keith Law would move Trout ahead of Ackley who was, at the time, the no doubt about it second pick overall. While Trout is a special talent, it just goes to show you that anything can happen in the MLB draft. So many different opinions, so many different projections, so many different philosophies. Should be fun tonight. Unfortunately, in a year that the Angels have three first round picks, the talent pool is pretty much the same from 4-44.