Friday, October 8, 2010

BBA NL Connie Mack Award Ballot

Baseball's award season is upon us and we finally have a vote that counts for something this year. We're proud members of the Baseball Blogger Alliance and they've been kind enough to give us ballots. The only thing the BBWAA ever gave us was food poisoning that time they had us over for a dinner party. Today we'll be unveiling our NL Connie Mack Ballot for manager of the year.

1. Bud Black
The Padres unraveled at the end of the season to finish 2 games out of the NL West. It was still quite the feat considering the Padres were widely predicted to finish last. Black, Mike Scioscia's former pitching coach with the Angels, keeps producing quality relief pitchers from the secret underground factory under Petco. Black also got tremendous innings from youngsters Mat Latos and Clayton Richards. He won 90 games with just one offensive player, Adrian Gonzalez. The rest of the lineup was filled with David Ecksteins. Let's see you win 90 games with that.

2. Bobby Cox
The longtime Braves skipper is sure to get some sentimental love after getting his team into the playoffs in his final year. I'm giving him some love for having the balls to start a 20-year-old from day one. Jason Heyward rewarded his manager with 18 home runs and a .277/.393/.456 line. Heyward was probably the Braves best offensive player too. His other outfielders included the likes of Nate McLouth and Melky Cabrera. Let's see you win 91 games with that.

3. Dusty Baker
*sigh* I don't feel great about this one due to Dusty's poor bullpen management and playing Jonny Gomes in the outfield. True story, Gomes is so bad in the outfield UZR tried to quit FanGraphs instead of measuring him.[citation needed] Despite all of that, Baker did "guide" the Reds to 91 wins and finished 5 games ahead of the Cardinals for first place in the Central. I think I need a shower after putting Baker on this ballot. Something feels so dirty about it.

BBA AL Connie Mack Award Ballot

Baseball's award season is upon us and we finally have a vote that counts for something this year. We're proud members of the Baseball Blogger Alliance and they've been kind enough to give us ballots. The only thing the BBWAA ever gave us was the stink eye when we saw them on the subway that one time. Today we'll be unveiling our AL Connie Mack Ballot for manager of the year.

1. Terry Francona
Despite Boston missing the playoffs, I'm giving Tito the slight nod over Ron Washington because he somehow managed the Red Sox to an 89-73 record in baseball's toughest division without core players. The Sox lost their entire outfield, their MVP second baseman, Mike Lowell turned 127, Big Papi had his usual godawful start and Jonathan Papelbon melted down. Paps led the AL in blown saves with 8 and, if that wasn't enough, Daniel Bard was tied for second with 7. I don't know what Tito was doing in Boston this year and even if I found out it was voodoo, I'd still give him the credit for it.

2. Ron Washington
Washington's Rangers managed to unseat the Angels from atop the AL West. He got an MVP season out of Josh Hamilton, a big rebound year from Vlad Guerrero, a break out performance from CJ Wilson and barely had to worry about bullpen management as Neftali Feliz set the rookie saves record. All of the stars aligned perfectly for him. It also didn't hurt that Seattle was terrible, Oakland was just a .500 club and the Angels started Brandon Wood.

3. Ron Gardenhire
It infuriates me to see Gardy go do something like sac bunt in the first inning but he constantly has the Twins in the playoffs. This year he did so despite losing Justin Morneau half way through an MVP caliber season and Joe Nathan for the season. He even got 221 solid innings out of Carl Pavano without him turning back into a pumpkin. I suspect that might have been voodoo too though. Gardy won the Central by 6 games over the White Sox after it looked like it could be a close race.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Atlanta at San Francisco

As soon as I start a baseball blog, the Angels miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006. I hope you like your post-season previews filled with animosity and tears.

The Braves and the Giants will be the last series to get started Thursday at 8:37 CT. I spent a good chunk of my life living in Atlanta, dealing with Braves fans, both the wishy-washy kind and the dozen or so real ones. They're all annoying if you were wondering. Not quite Yankees or Red Sox fans annoying but still. I do have some pretty strong admiration for Tommy Hanson and Jason Heyward and spent many a drunken days at The Ted. That said, get ready for a heavy dose of Buster Posey love (also from Georgia).

My Completely Biased Opinion.
The Giants' rotation looks much better on paper than that of the Braves who will trot out Derek Lowe to open the series against Tim Lincecum and probably pitch him on short rest if there is a fourth game. If you've read this far, you probably know that Buster Posey is a blog favorite. I expect him to hit somewhere around .900 for the series.

Just Some of the Facts M'am.
Buster Posey hit 18 home runs and .305/.357/.505 in 443 plate appearances with the Giants in his rookie season. Posey's NL ROY competition, Jason Heyward, hit 18 home runs and .277/.393/.456 in 180 more plate appearances. Say what you will about the extra service time but, for me, Poesy>Heyward for this season. Lincecum had his worst season since his 24 rookie starts in 2007, pitching 3.43/3.15/3.21 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) while only striking out 9.79 per 9 innings. But that still trumps Lowe's 4.00/3.89/3.65 line. The Giants follow Lincecum with Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez to round out the best playoff rotation not based in Philadelphia. The Braves have a solid rotation too with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. But if the pitching matchup in game 4 is actually Madison Bumgarner vs Brandon Beachy, Braves fans better start to worry.

Prediction.
Pitching + Posey = NLCS. There's a little more math that goes into that formula but simplified it for you. You're welcome. Giants in 4.

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

New York at Minnesota

As soon as I start a baseball blog, the Angels miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006. I hope you like your post-season previews filled with animosity and tears.

Derwood wanted to write this preview but he opened an email from some porn-spam and it burned down his apartment. Now he's selling oranges off of the 75-loop in Atlanta, swing by on your commute. The Yanks face the Twins at 7:37 Central Time Wednesday night so long as George Lopez doesn't have an emergency prime-time special.

My Completely Biased Opinion.
Yep, I hate the Bronx Bombers. Yet, I love Mickey Mantle and Billy Martin. Go figure. Meanwhile, I really like Joe Mauer and whatever Gardy is doing in the Twin Cities. Can I pick against the Evil Empire? Sure can. More on that later.

Just Some of the Facts M'am.
I already touched on the Yanks' decision to skip AJ Burnett in the ALDS which probably isn't the worst idea. Instead the Yanks will trot out CC Sabathia on short rest for game 4 if necessary and let Phil Hughes take the mound for game 3. Sabathia was 21-7 with a 3.18/3.54/3.78 pitching line. 21 wins? Give that man the Cy Young The Twins will counter with Francisco Liriano and his 3.62/2.66/3.06 and 6 WAR. So Liriano was just about 1 win better than Sabathia this season. That my friends, is huge. But will Liriano get any Cy love with his pedestrian 14 wins and bloated 3.62 ERA? No sir but don't let that fool you. He is a true ace.

Capt'n Jetes hit .270/.340/.370 and saw his wOBA fall .70 points from last season. And according to Fangraphs' WAR, this was Jeter's worst season EVER unless you want to count his 51 plate appearances in 1995. But at least he'll only re-sign next season for around 4 more years and $80 million. Joe Mauer had a disappointing season of his own, hitting .327/.402/.469. Slacker. The Twins had to shut Justin Morneau down for the season after a concussion turned out to be the only thing that could slow him down. In 348 plate appearances, Morneau hit 18 home runs and .345/.437/.618. That is half of an MVP season.

Prediction.
My utter disdain for the Yankees prevents me from ever picking them despite my desire to be right. Do I feel good picking a team that is starting Carl Pavano in game 2? Nope, sure don't but here it goes anyway. Twins in 5.

AJ Burnett Told No Thank You By Yankees

The Yankees have decided to start CC Sabathia on short rest rather than giving AJ Burnett a game 4 start. Burnett had just about his worst professional season in 2010 during the second year of his 5-year, $82.5 million contract. His 5.26/4.83/4.66 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line is the worst of his career and, perhaps even more concerning, he struck out much fewer (6.99 K/9) than his career average (8.34 K/9). His walk and strand rates were right along his career norms and his BABIP (.319) wasn't wildly unlucky. He simply stopped striking hitters out this year.

So the Yanks will give Sabathia and 38-year-old Andy "Come On, You Know You Want To" Pettitte 2 starts if necessary against the Twins and they'll mix in a game 3 start from Phil Hughes. How the Yankees can spend $3 billion on payroll and not find a quality fourth starter baffles me. I suppose that will be corrected this off-season when they write Cliff Lee a blank check.

In a rather amusing turn of events, the Yankees will face former "employee" and blog enemy Carl Pavano. Pavano is enjoying a nice bounce back season for the Twins sporting a decent 3.75/4.02/4.01 pitching line. And with a 17-11 record, he'll most likely receive way too many Cy Young votes. Which I will find hilarious because it will make Derwood's head explode.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Cincinnati at Philadelphia

As soon as I start a baseball blog, the Angels miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006. I hope you like your post-season previews filled with animosity and tears.

The first National League playoff game will kick off around 4:07 on Wednesday. That's right, I'm still on Central time. Let's start the Chase Utley love fest...

My Completely Biased Opinion.
I've been accused of having an unhealthy obsession with Chase Utley. While his wife has sent me some pretty strongly worded cease and desist emails, I'll continue to champion his MVP worthiness. Utley has been, aside from Pujols and now maybe Votto, the best player in the National League for years. How he doesn't get more MVP love than, oh say, Ryan Howard boggles my mind. The Phillies are a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs because...

Just Some of the Facts M'am.
The Phils rotation starts with Doc Halladay and his Cy Young 2.44/3.01/2.92 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line and Cole Hamels sporting a 3.06/3.67/3.43 line and Roy Oswalt and his 2.76/3.27/3.45 line. Oh and Oswalt is pitching a 1.74 ERA since coming over from the hapless Astros. I like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto and all of the young talent the Reds have to offer. They're simply outclassed by the Phils and Dusty Baker doesn't help the cause with his bullpen mismanagement.

Prediction.
While it's hard for me to root against Posey's Giant, the Phillies might be the most dangerous team in the post-season. The rotation can't be matched and the lineup is solid . Phils via 3 game murder.

Texas at Tampa Bay

As soon as I start a baseball blog, the Angels miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006. I hope you like your post-season previews filled with animosity and tears.

The post-season officially kicks off at 12:37 on Wednesday. That's right, I live in the Central Time Zone, adjust your clocks accordingly. The Rangers will visit Tampa Bay and deal with the dozens of fans who will cross that godforsaken bridge and enjoy that craptastic stadium. But hey, at least they altered the rules about a ball hitting the catwalk at the Trop to essentially being a do-over. Seriously, get a new stadium.

My Completely Biased Opinion.
I'll be rooting for the Rays in this series for all of the apparent reasons. I'm not afraid to admit them. The Rangers toppled the Angels from atop the AL West division and made their way onto my enemies list which also include Nazis and PETA. And secondly, Joe Maddon was the bench coach for the Angels once upon a time and he makes some pretty cool shoes. I'm pretty sure one of those is true. I do deduct a few points from the Rays for their epic draft FAIL of passing on blog favorite Buster Posey. The Rangers get a bonus point for the ballpark in Arlington resurrecting the career of Vladimir Guerrero.

Just Some of the Facts M'am.
Cliff Lee brings his 3.18/2.58/3.23 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) line to the Trop to battle David Price and Evan Longoria. Price had his breakout year as an ace posting a 2.72/3.42/3.99 line and the 19 wins will probably garner more Cy Young love than he deserves. I'll have Felix Hernandez, Lee, Francisco Liriano and probably Jered Weaver over Price on my imaginary ballot once I post it. Longoria put together another MVP caliber season hitting .294/.372/.507 while playing Gold Glove defense at third (11.0 UZR). Of course, he'll finish somewhere behind Josh Hamilton and his .359/.411/.633 line in the MVP voting.

Prediction.
I think the Rays are the better team with more pitching. The home field advantage is less of an advantage for the Rays as it is a disadvantage for the Rangers. Did you follow that? The Rangers are 39-42 away from their bandbox park while the Rays are good whether they're at home (49-32) or not (47-32). I could give you a whole lot more splits analysis but I trust you can work Baseball-Reference on your own at this point. Rays in 4.

Brian Roberts Concussed Himself?

Baseball has a long and grueling 162 game regular season. It's not unusual for a player to take a trip or two to the 15-day DL. How they get injured, well that's the fun part. Sammy Sosa hit the DL after a sneeze destroyed his back. Clint Barmes, and this might be my favorite, spent some time on the disabled list after falling down a flight of stairs while carrying deer meat. While Brian Roberts didn't make it to the DL to close the season, he's pretty sure he delivered the blow that led to his concussion-esque symptoms...
“I don’t know 100 percent sure, but it was Monday night. In frustration (after a strikeout), I whacked myself on the head with my bat in the ninth. I had my helmet on,” Roberts said. “It’s something I’ve done a million times, but I still can’t tell you for sure if that was it. But that’s the only thing that I can point to because that night and the next morning, I just didn’t feel good. So it’s been going on since then.”
Bo Jackson disapproves of Brian Roberts technique. I just spent a good 10 minutes trying to find a video of Bo Jackson breaking a bat over his head and came up empty. What's up Internet? Are we not cool anymore? Roberts will undergo a CT scan today in hopes to reveal the cause of his head pain. Roberts missed most of the first half with a herniated disk and only made 261 plate appearances. He posted a .278/.354/.391 line which wasn't too far below his career averages.

We hope Brian has a speedy recovery since concussions are all the new medical rage in sports nowadays. And I also bet my retirement fund on the Buck Showalter Express (34-23 this season) finishing above .500 next season. I'm not a wise investor.

Unrelated note: Brian Roberts' wife is hot.