Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Curveballs for Jobu

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Yamil Benitez and he's here because of my recent obsession with the Montreal Expos. Even @Montreal_Expos thinks it's getting out of hand.














Hey kids, I'm covering Jobu today because Derwood is mad at me for not being able to patch him through on the podcast last night. I couldn't figure out how to work the software but I wasn't supposed to host either. I'd post a link but you're probably better off not listening to me say "um" and "Mike Trout" for an hour.

Red Sox 6, Angels 0. The Angels are 11-20 against the AL East and get killed by the Red Sox (0-8). The Halos left 9 runners on base doing some of their better anticlutch work this season. Ryan Kalish hit a grand slam off of Jered Weaver hoping to give Jon Lester the edge for second place in Cy Young voting. But I still have a glimmer of post season hope because...

Rays 10, Rangers 1. Matt Garza tossed 7 shutout innings and struck out 10. Carl Crawford was a double shy of the cycle. Pedro Strop pitched some "relief" for the Rangers throwing 35 pitches in 1.1 innings. He made the most of it though giving up 5 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks. When asked about Strop, Ron Washington said, "Who now?"

Phillies 9, Giants 3. Chase Utley's glorious return to the lineup wasn't exactly effective as the best second baseman in baseball went 0-5. The Phils smacked around Barry Zito and Chris Ray for 8 of the 9 runs. Blog favorite Buster Posey went 2-4. Jose Guillen hit his first homer as a Giant so it's just a matter of time before he yells at his first Giant.

Astros 4, Mets 3. Hunter Pence hit 2 home runs and all 4 RBI off of Johan Santana for the win. K-Rod had surgery for a torn ligament in his hand from punching his father-in-law and probably won't be getting paid for the rest of the season. The good news is Rodriguez extended his no punches thrown streak to 5 days.

Dodgers 6, Rockies 0. Brad Hawpe: DNP. It's doubtful Hawpe and his poor fielding will make it to the weekend as a Rockie.


Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Is It Time for Micah Owings to Become a Full-Time Hitter?

With today's announcement that the Reds had designated for assignment pitcher Micah Owings to make room for newly-signed draft pick Yasmani Grandal, it may be time to find out if Owings can do it full-time at the plate. In a little over 400 big league innings, Owings' pitching numbers are barely above the Greg Cadaret Line-1.42 WHIP, 5.11 ERA-but his hitting has always been of the every day player-caliber going back to his school boy days at Gainesville High School (GA), and at Tulane University and Georgia Tech.

Owings is still just 27-years old, and while his pitching has merely been replacement level or worse since he made his ML debut in 2007, his work at the plate-.293/.323/.538 in 198 plate appearances suggests a possible move to being an every day player. Besides, what does a major league team have to lose by giving Owings, who makes the major league minimum, a shot with the bat?

MLB Draft Signing Deadline: Zach Lee Edition

The MLB draft signing deadline has come and gone with only 3 of the top 50 picks not signing. It was not big surprise that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado signed at the very last minute. But Zach Lee, that one I didn't see coming. Let's take a look at some of yesterday's highlights while I try to reign my Dodger hatred in a little...

Nationals
In no surprise, the Nationals were able to sign Bryce Harper right before the 11:59 p.m deadline last night. It's the second straight year the Nationals have signed once-in-a-lifetime prospects according to Super Agent Soctt Boras. Harper got a 5-year deal worth $9.9 million including a $6.5 million signing bonus. The power hitting 17-year-old will be transitioned to the outfield from catcher to expedite his arrival to the majors. Keith Law Tweeted that the Nats might even send Harper to the AFL in October.

The Nationals also signed 2nd round pick left-handed pitcher Sammy Solis for a $1 million bonus and 4th rounder right-handed pitcher A.J. Cole for a $2 million bonus. Quite the nice haul for the Nationals who are putting together a good core of young players. I've technically been a big fan of theirs since they signed Vladimir Guerrero in 1993 so I don't want to hear any lip about hopping on the bandwagon.

Pirates
Pittsburgh continues to be the biggest spender come draft time. It helps if you're constantly one of the worst teams in baseball but that's just a theory I'm working on. The second overall pick right-handed pitcher Jameson Tallion signed for around a $6 million bonus. Fellow right-handed pitcher Stetson Allie tumbled all the way to the second round before the Pirates drafted him. Allie probably has the most uside of any pitcher in the draft other than Tallion and the Pirates opened up their wallet and paid out $2.25 million for him. Impressive draft.

Orioles
Baltimore gave a $5.25 million bonus to short stop Manny Machado minutes before the deadline.

Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks reached a deal with 6th overall pick pitcher Barret Loux but his physical revealed arm damage. The D-Backs were able to void the contract and, it turns out, Loux will become a free agent. Loux will be able to sign with any team (Diamondbacks?) and the Diamondbacks will receive the 7th pick in next year's draft as compensation.

Padres
The Padres reportedly offered 9th pick overall pitcher Karsten Whitson a $2.1 million bonus but Whitson held out for more and never signed. $2.1 million with a chance to eventually live in San Diego and pitch in a massive pitchers park? Doesn't seem bad to me but I live in New Orleans where the temperature is Fire but with a lot of humidity.

Brewers
The 14th overall pick Dylan Covey declined to sign for a different reason. The pitcher was on his way to signing when his physical revealed Covey has Type 1 diabetes. The Brewers were still interested in signing him but Covey decided it would be better to attend the University of San Diego which is close to home. I wish the kid the best of luck. And if he ever wants to have me out to watch a game and maybe hit a party, my email is on the right of the page.

Angels
The Halos were able to reach a deal with 2-way star Kaleb Cowart. They'll likely give him a chance to play third base before moving him to a full time pitcher.

Rockies
The 26th pick in the draft struck a deal right before the deadline. Outfielder Kyle Parker signed a $1.4 million contract allowing him to still quarterback the Clemson Tigers. By choosing to play football, Parker probably left close to $1 million on the table.

Dodgers
Buckle in kids, I have a lot of venom built up for this one. It was already a bad day for LSU when Anthony Renaudo and LSU commit Lucas LeBlanc ended up signing with Boston. But it got worse when future quarterback, Zach Lee signed with the Dodgers. I was convinced the Dodgers had a near zero percent chance of signing Lee away from LSU as I wrote here and more recently here.

It took $5.25 million to buy Zach Lee out of his LSU commitment and love for football. Where did the Dodgers, tied up in the McCourt divorce, get that kind of cash? I can't be certain, but this has Alyssa Milano written all over it. Lee was already enrolled at LSU and even practiced with the football team that afternoon before signing. Lee might have even had a shot at starting by the end of the season considering the track records of incumbent QBs Jarett Lee and Jordan Jefferson. Of course, the LSU baseball team also suffers losing Lee from their rotation.

The Lee bonus more than doubles Clayton Kersaw's $2.3 million in 2006, the Dogers' former largest bonus. Despite the fate of the franchise being in limbo because of the divorce, the Dodgers both added payroll at the trade deadline and gave out one of the largest bonuses of the draft. I have a feeling this will make me angry for quite some time. Or until Thursday, my attention span isn't very...oh my god, that dog is wearing a hat.

Curveballs for Jobu

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Claudell Washington.












Tigers 3, Yankees 1. If anyone has seen the Yankees offense, please contact Joe Girardi and his coaching staff at the following address:

Grounders to Short Foundation
c/o New York Yankees
E 161st Street
New York, New York, 10451.

Padres 9, Cubs 5. MTD doesn't want to admit it, but I'll go ahead and say it: I thought for sure that was Miguel Tejada working at the Chevron down the street from my apartment, but apparently he's batting 2nd for San Diego. Either way, August Employee of the Month is Jeremy's to lose now that Tejada is having nights like Monday (4-for-5, 2 RBIs) for the first-place Pads.

Orioles 5, Mariners 4. When Adam Moore gets four hits, you really have to win that game. But this is the 2010 Seattle Mariners ("We'll win when we feel like it, back off, pal"), and when Moore popped a solo home run in the top of the 10th to give the M's the lead, David Aardsma, like most of us, couldn't stand the sight of Julio Lugo and walked him on four pitches with the bases loaded to force in the tying run. With two outs and a man at third in the 10th, Adam Jones bunted for a hit, scoring Nick Markakis for the win. O's manager Buck Showalter said he "loved" the bunt idea, which means we're about a week away from the debut of BuckySmartball™.

Mets 3, Astros 1. Jason Castro: 0-for-4.

Pirates 7, Marlins 1. Seems like every year we get to this point with the Marlins. They're "under-performing", "not playing to their potential" and "playing in front of 83 people every night". But maybe it's time to recognize Florida for what it is: a franchise that had two really good teams and got some luck in winning the World Series in 1997 and 2003, but for nearly two decades of existence has been at best a .500 team with a couple stars that no one cares to come watch play. They aren't under-performing, they're just the Marlins-baseball's version of the fictional basketball team, the Briggstown Saints.

Monday, August 16, 2010

The Montreal Expos Draft History

The recent MLB Network production of Triumph and Tragedy has rekindled my old feelings for the Montreal Expos. The special is fantastic and highly recommended even though it could have used a little more Jonah Keri for my taste. The strike shortened 1994 season really was a tragedy for the Expos not only ruining their World Series bound season but it financially sunk their battleship. The dominant team from the year before was broken up before the 1995 season and they could never recover, leading to their eventual move to Strasburg DC.

The Expos knew they couldn't compete in the free agent market and turned their focus to home-growing their own system. I already wrote about my favorite Expos and posted the must see fan video. But the special got me thinking about their draft history. So I figured I might highlight some of their more memorable draft picks. They had a nice eye for talent highlighted by signing Vladimir Guerrero, trading for Pedro Martinez and drafting (not signing) Mark McGwire. But I'm just going to take a look a draft picks for this special Canadian version of hop in the way back machine. (All info from Baseball-Reference)

1972
Gary Carter - The Hall Of Fame catcher was draft in the 3rd round (53). He played for the Expos from 1974-1984 racking up 52.3 of his career 66.3 WAR. In 1984, Carter was traded to the Mets for Hubie Brooks and some loose change found in the GM's office.

1975
Andre Dawson - Drafted in the 11th round (250), Dawson played from 1976-1986 in Montreal. He recorded 43.6 of his career 57.0 WAR during those years. The Hawk and his career .323 OBP were inducted into the Hall of Fame this year as an Expo.

1977
Tim Raines - The Rock was drafted in the 5th round (106). From 1980 to 1990, he was the second best lead off man in baseball and racked up 46 of his career 64.6 WAR. Raines gets the Hall of Fame support he deserves from the sabermetric community but the voters are still a little grumpy about, I assume, the cocaine usage. Which of course is way different than Willie Mays' amphetamine use just a couple of decades prior. Rock should eventually get in but it's a shame he'll have to wait.

1979
Tim Wallach - The catcher spent basically all of his productive years in Montreal collecting 31.1 of his 31.3 WAR from 1980 to 1992. He was the Expos' 1st round pick (10).

Andres Galaragga - The undrafted free agent didn't have a great career in Montreal from 1985-1991 (8.6 WAR) but they managed to turn him into Ken Hill for their magical run in 1994.

1984
Larry Walker - The amateur free agent was a beast in the outfield from 1989-1994 posting a 19.3 WAR. In the great fire sale of 1995, he was granted free agency netting the Expos nothing in return for one of their cornerstone players.

1985
Randy Johnson - The Expos didn't give The Big Unit much of chance giving him just 10 starts before dealing him to Seattle for Mark Langston in 1989. But they still get some credit for drafting him in the 2nd round (36).

1987
Delino DeShields - The first round pick (12) was a fan favorite from 1990-1993 while collecting an 8.6 WAR. DeShields was traded in the 1993 offseason for a 160 pound pitcher from the Dodgers. While the Expos were crushed for the trade, Pedro Martinez ended up being fairly decent.

1988
Marquis Grissom - The Expos drafted their star center fielder in the 3rd round (76) and he posted a 17.8 WAR from 1989-2004. But he'd be another casualty of the 1995 fire sale when he was traded to the Braves for Esteban Yan, a bag of Cheetos, Tony Tarasco, a case of half-filled Coca Cola glass bottles and Roberto Kelly. A fair haul for a center fielder who helped bring a World Series championship to Atlanta.

1990
Rondell White - The first round (24) outfielder put up a respectable 17.7 WAR in his stint in Montreal from 1993-2000 before bouncing around both leagues.

1994
Javier Vasquez - The 5th round (140) pitcher had some good seasons in Montreal from 1998-2003 posting a 16.1 WAR before being traded to the Yankees. If you remove his 2 stints in New York, Vasquez has had a solid career.

Just for fun.

1999
Brandon Phillips - Given up on early after being drafted in the 2nd round (57) but more on him in a minute.

In The Year 2000
Grady Sizemore - Taken in the 3rd round (75).

Cliff Lee - Taken in the 4th round (105).

Jason Bay - Drafted in the 22nd round (645) and traded to the Mets in 2002. Then he was traded to San Diego in 2002 and flipped to Pittsburgh in 2003 before he was traded to Boston in 2008. He was the Mets big free agent signing in 2009 and, I assume, they're trying to trade him to the Washington Nationals to complete the circle of life.

Bartolo Colon Trade
In 2002, the Expos traded Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Cliff Lee for Bartolo Colon. The Indians didn't have much patience with Phillips either flipping him to Cincinnati. Cliff Lee has also been passed around quite a bit but might be the best pitcher in baseball and figures to sign a massive contract with the Yankees in the offseason. Grady Sizemore seemed like he was well on his way to multiple MVPs before injuries have stalled out his career. But for a while, this looked like the most lopsided trade in baseball history since Babe Ruth was traded for some theatre tickets and the rights to a Muscial To Be Named Later. Is that right? I'm not good with history.

Felix Hernandez's Role In The AL Cy Young

With 7 weeks to go in the season, it's still a little early for award predicting. But Geoff Baker had to write something for The Seattle Times and I suppose I need to write something here. Baker believes Hernandez, despite his 8-10 record, can make a legitimate run because he's in the top 5 in Innings (1st), ERA (4th), Strikeouts (2nd) and Complete Games (2nd). Then Baker blows my mind talking about King Felix being in the top 5 of FIP and xFIP. Geoff Baker, you had me at FIP.

Felix Hernandez is having another great CY Young type season that I guess I didn't even really notice because he is a Mariner. So, I guess it's about time for me to take a quick look at my fictional Cy Young ballot. The ballot has been expanded to 5 spots from 3 spots for what might as well be called the Keith Law Law. For my imaginary ballot, I'll be ignoring wins (sorry Carl Pavano) because just stop it already.

1. Cliff Lee
Lee has been downright masterful with his command of the strike zone. His 15.22 K/BB ratio would not only shatter Brett Saberhagan's 11.00 ratio from 1994 but make Jered Weaver look like a jerk with his second best 4.44 this year. Lee (3.25) has the second best xFIP in the AL and has the most complete games in the league with 7. He also has the best WAR (6.0) and WPA (3.72) in the AL.

2. Felix Hernandez
After Lee, the rest of the best are a pretty tight group but King Felix is as deserving as any. The innings and strikeouts are impressive but Baker didn't mention that Hernandez is also tied for 5th in hits. His .294 BABIP suggests he hasn't really been unlucky in that area either. He's 4th in xFIP (3.36) but only .11 points off from Cliff Lee. He's also 3rd in WAR (4.8) and 4th in WPA (2.80) in the AL. The 10 or 11 wins he'll end up with will certainly hurt him though. It's unfortunate for him that your sister scores more every year than the Mariners.

3. Jered Weaver
Weaver is flying under the radar despite leading the AL in strikeouts. He was placed in the ace role for the Halos after Lackey departed and has certainly lived up to it. He's 5th in xFIP (3.38) and 2nd in K/BB (4.44). He's 5th in WAR (4.4) at Fangraphs or tied for 1st with Lee (4.7) at B-R. I should note that I use Fangraphs for most of my stats unless Baseball-Reference helps my argument better. He's also 2nd in WPA (3.34) in the AL. If he can get up to 15-16 wins from the 11 he's sitting at, he might have a good chance at running up Cliff Lee. Unless Pavano gets to 20 wins, then all bets are off.

4. Jon Lester
Lester has the most wins (13) on my ballot. His BB/9 ratio is up this year from his previous 2 years which is keeping him from being in the top 5 in K/BB but he is 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (165). He's 3rd in xFIP (3.26) just .01 away from Cliff Lee. Lester is 4th in WAR (4.6) and 3rd in WPA (3.24). Considering his wins and market, he'll probably end up finishing much higher than 4th.

5. Francisco Liriano
Liriano isn't close to the top 10 in innings pitched but he's been exceptional when he's throwing. Despite the fewer innings, he's still 4th in strikeouts (160). He leads the AL in both FIP (2.19) and xFIP (2.94). Liriano is 2nd in WAR (5.6)but only 11th in WPA (2.24). Liriano will probably only sniff the ballot if some of the new more sabermetrically inclined members get some AL Cy Young votes.

A Step Back for Society

Chevrolet is running a contest called Fan of the Year. You can send in a video explaining why you're the fan of the year and they pick a winner. This video was sent in by a Yankees fan who calls himself Michael LaPayower, but I know his real name. It's Everyyankeesfaniknewinnewjersey.

Pay particular attention to: the singing/rapping, editing, the :13 mark

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Curveballs for Jobu

Curveballs for Jobu is Offbasepercentage's daily trip around the ballparks.

Today's honorary bat boy is Chuck Carr.

Cubs 3, Cardinals 2. Some crazy person wandered onto the mound at Busch Stadium and got to pitch for Chicago. No one said anything until the sixth inning, when Cubs' manager Lou Piniella came and took the ball and the crazy person left the field. Rumors were swirling that the loony then went into a pet shop and declared himself "finally eligible for one of the upper level kitten cages."

Mariners 9, Indians 3. Josh Bard hit a grand slam on his daughter's fourth birthday, but unfortunately she's not expected to have another birthday until sometime in August, 2011, also the expected date of Seattle's next win.

Rays 7, Orioles 3. Bucky Good Times was rolling along again Saturday, up 3-0 on the AL Wild Card leaders. Then, apparently, Kelly Shoppach happened. Shoppach hit a go-ahead grand slam in the fourth and added a solo home run later in the game to lift Tampa.

Diamondbacks 9, Nationals 2. The series of the year just gets better and better. Saturday, Miguel Montero popped two home runs and Ian Kennedy allowed two runs in seven innings. Meanwhile, the Arizona bullpen threw two scoreless innings in the same game for the first time since 2002.

Twins 2, Athletics 0. Steve Tolleson: 1-for-3, single.