Julio Teheran Could Win No. 5 Spot

Prospect rankings are out and it appears that the Braves have a right handed pitcher who might be pretty good. Julio Teheran made a big jump in Keith Law's rankings moving from 63 in 2010 all the way up to 6th in this year's rankings. The Braves seem to be on the same page and realize they might not be able to send him back to the minors after Spring Training (from MLB)...

Teheran is one of the finest pitching prospects to ever pass through the Braves organization and they certainly don't have any plans to rush his development.

But based on what they've seen from him, there are some members of the Braves organization who believe Teheran will make it difficult for them to determine when or maybe even if they should send him to back to Minor League camp.

Teheran turned 20 on January 27th and pitched 142.2 innings between A-AA last season. So Teheran is still somewhat of a long shot to make the April rotation.

But if you look at Teheran's 2010 season, you can see why the Braves are optimistic...

League	IP	K/9	K/BB	ERA	FIP
A	39.1	10.3	4.5	1.14	2.39
A+	63.1	10.8	5.85	2.98	2.88
AA	40	8.55	2.24	3.38	3.3

I can't wait for Spring Training. This slow news cycle is killing me. I almost wrote about Adam Kennedy's DUI instead of this post. In hindsight, I'm not sure I made the right choice.

J-Roll Has A Stake In Justin Bieber

Jimmy Rollins doesn't want to be just another former baseball player after he retires. He has big plans involving the music industry. Now, I couldn't name a Justin Bieber song but he seems like a safe bet since that kid is always trending on Twitter and Tom Brady apparently stole his haircut. Rollins has tried to develop his own music stars but let's just say he isn't quite P-Diddy yet so he turned his attention to buying in on established artists. And I'm using "artist" in the loosest sense with Bieber. Here's the deal...

Rollins owns 5 percent of the publishing rights to Justin Bieber's "Eenie Meenie," a hit duet with Jamaican chubster Sean Kingston. The song appears on Bieber's platinum album, "My World 2.0."

*snip*

Rollins indicated that his investment in Bieber's song cost him about $20,000. Rollins' attorney, Christopher Cabott, who also teaches entertainment and sports law at Temple, yesterday presented to the assemblage a formula that, for that 5 percent stake, recoups about $10,000 per million units sold.

I guess the $20,000 investment in Bieber isn't a bad move for a guy who bought a $350,000 Bentley with his 2008 World Series check. Instead of me alienating my 13-year-old girl fan base by filling the rest of this post with Bieber jokes, I decided to focus on my other problem with the Phillies short stop. And if you read me at all, you should know where I'm going with this.

I'm still upset about the 2007 NL MVP results. That voting was worse than a grown man buying a single ticket to a Justin Bieber concert. Let's just move right past the fact that Albert Pujols should have won with his .327/.429/.568 line instead of finishing NINTH, and focus on the Phillies. Rollins hit 30 home runs and a .296/.344/.531 line for a good .378 wOBA. Sure, maybe he deserved some MVP votes but he wasn't the most valuable player on his own team let alone in the league.

Ryan Howard finished fifth thanks to 47 homers even though he struck out 37.6% of the time. But the real crime here was that Chase Utley finished eighth in the voting despite finishing both third in WAR (7.7) and wOBA (.420) while playing Gold Glove defense at second (which he didn't win either).

It boggles my mind how Utley doesn't get more MVP love. He's been one of the top five players in the National League for the past five years. He's clearly the Phillies best positional player but still can't beat out Howard in MVP voting. It makes me sad. And whether you agree with me or not, you have to be impressed that I managed to turn a Justin Bieber post into a Chase Utley love fest.

At least Utley finally got to be on It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia.

Vernon Wells Is An Upgrade From Juan Rivera, Right?

Yesterday I took a look at Mike Napoli vs Vernon Wells as hitters. And while this isn't becoming an Angels blog, it does seem like I have an awful lot to write about them lately. I think the guys over at the Orange County Register are egging me on though. Dan Woike recently wondered "Was Angels' Juan Rivera That Bad?" I'm not sure what his answer was because I'm allergic to slideshows but it did get me thinking.

How much better is Wells compared to Rivera? It's a little easier to compare the two since they're both 32-year-old outfielders. And Wells has a clear advantage in Wins Above Replacement because Rivera has the mobility of a wounded pylon (except for his outlying 2009 season). Click image to embiggen.



In terms of overall value, Wells is clearly the superior player even with him, hopefully, moving to left field. But in pure hitting terms, you might as well flip a coin. Yes, I am still using wOBA and, as always, click to enlarge.



These aren't especially comforting graphs for Angels fans. Now, I'm not saying Rivera is close to the player that Wells is because he isn't. I'd much rather have Wells than Rivera in a vacuum but we can't ignore the Wells contract.

Could the Angels have suffered through a Bobby Abreu/Juan Rivera left field and found better production from a Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon designated hitter? If we turn a blind eye to defense for this experiment, I think the answer is yes. Plus that assortment of players could have just been a place holder until Mike Trout arrives.

Of course, this has just become a "could have, should have" exercise for me at this point. Actual results may vary.

Crazy Guy To Manage AA Baseball Team

It's official: Walter Wayne Backman is just two steps away from a major league dugout. The Double-A Binghamton Mets named former infielder Wally Backman their manager Monday, paving the way for a public spectacle at Citi Field in mid-April, 2014 involving a table of cold cuts (mostly salami) landing on the on-deck circle, and the abduction of Mr. Met.

Backman has been Jose Canseco with room and board and without a boxing match against Danny Bonaduche since retiring from baseball after the 1993 season. He was manager of the Diamondbacks for four days; DUI; assault; shouting profanity at mailboxes (speculation). Then he delighted us all with a squirrel-in-a-fish tank meltdown while managing the South Georgia Peanuts of the independent South Coast League.



Backman has had a number of minor league managerial jobs in the Whitesox, Diamondbacks and Mets organizations, but this seems like one of the last stops for Walter before he finally gets the big league job we should all be hoping he gets. He interviewed for New York's major league job before it went to Terry Collins, but I'm convinced if he does well at Binghamton, he will be in a big league dugout. Think Ozzie Guillen, but with no sense of humor and more death threats to bat boys.

Mike Napoli Versus Vernon Wells And It's Not Pretty

An insufferable amount of words have been written about how bad the Vernon Wells trade was from the Angels aspect. We get it. The contract is an albatross, Wells is a 32-year-old declining outfielder, his splits last year were a nightmare of Freddy Krueger proportions, Tony Reagins has a drinking problem, et cetera, et cetera... I know it hasn't been completely lost in the shuffle but the Angels also traded away the best hitter in this deal.

The fallacy I keep hearing from Angels fans is that Mike Napoli wasn't one of Mike Scioscia's "guys" or he wasn't wanted in Anaheim or he wasn't going to get playing time anyway or the Angels didn't want to pay him the $6 million or so he was going to win in arbitration. Maybe, but by trading Napoli, the Angels made the Blue Jays better and themselves considerably worse. The Angels will go into 2011 with Jeff Mathis, a career .199/.265/.311* hitter, as their starting catcher. But this post isn't about how bad Mathis is, and he is bad, it's about how underrated Napoli is compared to Wells.

*I accidentally copied Mathis' OBP/SLG/OPS line first and thought we were all terribly misinformed. Then I realized I missed the actual AVG/OBP/SLG line and Mathis is worse than I ever imagined.

I don't think the majority of people do realize that Napoli has been a better hitter than Wells over the past three or four seasons and will probably continue to be so over the duration of Wells' cashrific contract. For illustrative purposes, let's take a look at the career Weighted On Base Averages (wOBA) for Napoli and Wells. For those new to wOBA, you can read about it here. Click image to enlarge.



As you can see, Napoli has had a higher wOBA for each season since 2007 except for 2010. The Wells supporters like to point at the bounce back season of 2010 hoping it is an encouraging sign for things to come. Unfortunately, Wells' big 2010 season was aided by a massive power spike in Toronto.

	Park Factors HR Rates
Year	Angels Stadium	Rogers Center
2010	0.825	1.358
2009	1.22	0.99
2008	0.933	0.926

So I would caution any Angels fans who are hoping Wells will be bringing 30 home run power to Anaheim. Wells has as good a chance of repeating his 2010 season as I do being Scarlett Johansson's rebound. Obviously, I hope I'm wrong in both cases.

The other concern about Wells is his splits. He hasn't hit lefties over the past two seasons and was atrocious on the road last year. Napoli isn't going to hit for a high average and he struggled with right handers this past season but absolutely crushes southpaws. He is also a pretty consistent hitter at home or on the road.

	Vernon Wells
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	27 HR .291/.342/.553	4 HR .195/.289/.354	20 HR .321/.363/.628	11 HR .227/.301/.407
2009	12 HR .278/.322/.425	3 HR .206/.279/.323	8 HR .214/.285/.348	7 HR .300/.335/.444
2008	18 HR .290/.328/.509	2 HR .333/.394/.455	11 HR .296/.347/.502	9 HR .304/.339/.490

	Mike Napoli
Year	vs RHP	vs LHP	Home	Road
2010	16 HR .208/.277/.423	10 HR .305/.399/.567	13 HR .240/.324/.480	13 HR .237/.307/.456
2009	14 HR .251/.325/.453	6 HR .337/.422/.611	10 HR .230/.332/.480	10 HR .308/.365/.514
2008	16 HR .270/.364/.590	4 HR .286/.406/.571	10 HR .250/.356/.542	10 HR .299/.394/.636

I would love to be wrong about Wells but the numbers suggest he's on the decline and has lost the ability to hit left handed pitching. His spike last season was a clear product of the Rogers Center becoming a hitters park for 2010. I doubt this is one of those "change of scenery will do him good" scenarios. But who knows, maybe the Angels have the Fountain of Youth hidden in the outfield rocks.

Napoli, on the other hand, is poised for a big 2011 season and won't cost the Jays the price of a small island.

As an Angels fan, it isn't fun being the bearer of doom and gloom.

My Obligatory Vernon Wells Trade Post

Angels fans were promised a "big splash" by General Manager Tony Reagins and, dammit, he delivered. By now, thousands of words have been written about the Angels decision to send Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera to Toronto for Vernon Wells and his bloated $80+ million contract. The trade, as you should know, has been universally crushed from the Angels point of view except for the frighteningly optimistic James of True Grich.

As the resident Angels fan, I feel obligated to post something about the trade even though I don't think I have much to add. I'd love to be optimistic and I do like Wells but I'm afraid advanced metrics and the Internet have ruined by ability to be a "die hard" fan anymore. It's almost sad in a way.

The starved for offense Angels traded for a center fielder who hit 31 home runs, 44 doubles and a .273/.331/.515 line in 2010. Twelve-year-old me would have been ecstatic about this trade. Instead, I immediately began trying to figure out how much of Wells' contract Toronto would have to eat for the deal to make sense. If they ate $30M + the $10M or so saved from Rivera and Napoli, then Wells would just have to be a 2.5 WAR player each of the four years of the remaining contract. That is providing Wells will move to a corner outfield spot and not cost the Angels runs by playing center. That was my rough estimate anyway.

Of course, the Blue Jays only sent $5 million back to Anaheim and the trade looks like a financial disaster for the Angels. But as a fan, I kept digging through Fangraphs and scouring Twitter to find a silver lining. Much like quicksand though, the harder I tried, the worse it got. I could ramble on about his splits or declining defense or what $75 million could have bought but it's all rather depressing.

It's hard to imagine this is the same Tony Reagins who orchestrated the heist of Dan Haren last season. But what's done is done now. No amount of analysis or whining will reverse this deal. Unless you have a time machine, do you have a time machine? No? Well, then, all Angels fans can do is continue to support the team and root for Wells to prove the pundits wrong or at least less wrong. That hasn't exactly worked with that Gary Matthews Jr signing but at least the Angels are only paying him $10 million for one more season.

The Mike Trout era can't get here fast enough.

Ohio Is Trying To Out-Fat The Rest Of America

Occasionally, I'm going to rant about some nonsense and try to tie it into baseball. I can't promise it will always work. But let's see what happens.

Easily my favorite thing about minor league baseball is the caloric killers that teams invent to see if they can get your Uncle Jeb to sweat beef in August. In light of Ohio falling from 10th to 12th in percentage of obese residents, the Akron Aeros have stepped up their game for 2011. So tuck that bib into your moo moo and say a prayer for that elastic waistband, let's see what the Aeros are going to fill your lunch wheelbarrow with this season.

Three Dog Night

Unveiled in December, the Three Dog Night makes the Dodger Dog look like a cocktail wiener (hee-hee). Pure emasculation. Here's the full description...

Named after the late-60s rock band that popularized the song “Joy to the World,” the Aeros will be serving up a trio of ballpark favorites…all in one edible item. That is correct: the Three Dog Night will consist of a hot dog, inside of a bratwurst, inside of a kielbasa. And if that isn’t enough, the entire “dog” will be stuffed inside of a hoagie roll and topped with sauerkraut.

Weighing in at over a pound and an estimated 3,300 calories, the TDN is sure to shut down at least a few arteries. But at just $7, you might as well order a few. I assume your wife has your cardiologist on speed dial anyway. Huh, fatty?

Nice 2 Meat You Burger

This is the true inspiration of this post. I mean, who doesn't want their heart attack to come from a food pun? It's every mid-westerners dream. It looks like the Fifth Third Burger has finally met its match. Here are the deets...

Doubling the weight of the Three Dog Night, the new burger comes equipped with a 1.75 pounds of hamburger meat, stuffed with a half pound of hot dog, and a quarter pound of bacon, cheese, and onions.

The Nice 2 Meat You comes served on two kaiser rolls and, if you finish it, a bucket of shame and regret. Look at that thing. I'm not even sure how you would go about eating it but I'm pretty sure the ability to unhinge your jaw is a prerequisite.

The scariest part is that the Aeros plan on revealing one more gut buster before the season begins. My guess is a deep dish pizza made up of layers of hamburger and hot dogs topped with chili and M&Ms.

MLB Needs More Chicken Fighting

This is the most ridiculous and awesome baseball brawl I've ever seen. Those krazy Koreans. It's been on Youtube for three years but somehow managed to escape my viewing pleasure until NotGraphs resurfaced it today.



Brilliant. This is how Derwood and I will settle all future arguments at the Off Base headquarters.