The Baseball Show: Playoff Picks

My good friend Mevs of Diamond Hoggers fame was kind enough to invite me back on the Baseball Show Thursday night. Another two hour podcast in the books. I'm coming for you, Kevin Goldstein.

It's been a while since we recorded a podcast so we pretty much discussed baseball for the full two hours. I only derailed into talking about deer antler spray once and I think MLB disconnected my phone.

-We recapped the craziest six minute span of baseball possibly ever from Wednesday night.

-We mourned the seasons of our favorite teams. Mevs discussed the Reds and I complained some more about Vernon Wells.

-We made our playoff picks for the first round. Check it out because I'll be bragging later.

-We make our award picks. Mine were done on the spot, actual voting may vary.

-Plus more!

Mark Reynolds Fails To Join Club

Mark Reynolds really let me down this year. When he was sent to the Orioles before the 2011 season, I had grandiose dreams of a 400 strikeout performance against the power pitching of the American League East. At 196 K's, he still led the AL in striking out but, for once, that wasn't the source of my obsession. If you follow me on Twitter, you already know where I'm going with this.

Thanks to Reynolds playing third base like a fawn wondering onto the interstate for the first time, he had a pretty good chance to hit 30+ home runs and produce no value. By no value, I mean a 0.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Using Baseball-References version of WAR, only eight (8!) players have ever hit 30+ homers with an rWAR equal to or less than goose egg...

Rk		Yrs	From	To	Age
1	Dave Kingman	2	1982	1986	33-37	Ind. Seasons
2	Mike Jacobs	1	2008	2008	27-27	Ind. Seasons
3	Tony Batista	1	2004	2004	30-30	Ind. Seasons
4	Dante Bichette	1	1999	1999	35-35	Ind. Seasons
5	Joe Carter	1	1996	1996	36-36	Ind. Seasons
6	Cecil Fielder	1	1995	1995	31-31	Ind. Seasons
7	Cory Snyder	1	1987	1987	24-24	Ind. Seasons
8	Tony Armas	1	1983	1983	29-29	Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/29/2011.

In 1999, Dante Bichette was secretly replaced in the outfield with a can of Folgers coffee and nobody could tell the difference.

In 620 plate appearances, Reynolds hit 37 home runs and a .221/.323/.483 line. It's a pretty accurate picture of the player he has been over his five year career. But in 2011, his defense was off the charts poor and that gave him a chance to become the ninth player to join the club.

The Orioles, afraid of my Twitter campaign, moved Reynolds to first base. So, much to my chagrin, he finished the season with a 0.5 rWAR. He flirted with the zero mark several times down the stretch but, alas, it was not to be.

We were so close, people. So close.

I Love Ozzie Guillen

I love Ozzie Guillen and it's not just because the one part of the English language he mastered is profanity. He's cocky, abrasive, has no filter and I suspect he drinks quite a bit. He's just like your one uncle except he's had a job since 2004 and doesn't have to introduce himself as registered sex offender to the neighbors.

But Guillen isn't have a great season at the helm of the Pale Hose. The White Sox are 77-82 with three games to play and 15 games out of the AL Central, a division many, including yours truly, picked them to win. It's hard to pin the disappointing season all on Guillen. Of qualified American League players, the Sox have two of the worst five in fWAR (Fanrgraphs Wins Above Replacement) and three of the bottom 15. And that doesn't include Adam Dunn and his MLB worst -2.8 fWAR.

Guillen, however, doesn't want to point fingers at some of the historically bad performances of his players and would give his own performance the lowest grade possible...

For proof of that, look at what Guillen said when asked recently what grade he'd give himself for 2011.

"Z," he said.

"You're the man," Guillen said. "You make the lineup. So many things are on your shoulders. You have to be honest with yourself. I don't think this team went where it was supposed to be. I don't see why not give myself a Z. I don't play to be a second-place or third-place team."

Despite his own harsh grade, Guillen made it clear what he's looking for from the Sox after a meeting with Chairman Jerry Reinsdorf...

"(Bleep) more years, I want more money," Guillen said. "I don’t work here for years. No, I want more money. Years, what, I’m going to die poor with the White Sox. Hell, no. Listen this is my job. It’s the only thing I can do. I have to make money out of somewhere. I’m not a doctor or a lawyer, where you’ll have a job for the rest of your life.

"Life is about money. People don’t believe that. People are happy after they make money."

Yeah! That lousy $2 million I'm supposed to make next year will barely cover the overhead for my pygmy hippopotamus farm! I should have gone to law school! Or doctor school!

Guillen did say that he wanted to stay with the White Sox organization and his relationship with GM Kenny Williams would remain very respectful. You know, as long as they back that truck full of cash up to his drive way.

He declined to say if he'd quit if he didn't get a lucrative extension. There are some dire repercussions for the Guillen household though if he does find himself out of work...

"I’ve got to talk to my wife, and she’s got to cut the shopping process and Ozzie (Jr.) has got to quit drinking a little bit and Oney has to go to work a little bit," Guillen quipped. "Ozney has got to go to public school and hopefully get a scholarship somewhere, a lot of (stuff). My mom’s got to cut a little bit, my dad’s got to get healthy, my sister’s got to find a rich man.

"There’s a lot behind the scenes. My captain and my boat, I’ve got to cut that thing down. There’s a lot of things I’ve got to pay. We’ll see what happens, I don’t know yet."

Um, this needs to be a reality TV show like yesterday. Seriously, Bravo, VH1, MTV, TLC (if they can get a little person in the cast), MLB network, I don't care. Somebody put the Guillens on TV immediately.

I was relieved to hear that Ozzie (Jr) only has to quit drinking a little bit. I follow Oney on Twitter and, if he's any indication, Ozney can just drop out of school now. Maybe they can date some Kardashians.

UPDATE: Guillen said Monday night's game would be his last as the White Sox manager.

We Forgot To Congratulate Mariano Rivera

On behalf of the entire breaking-news-staff at Off Base, I'd like to congratulate Mariano Rivera for breaking the all-time saves record. This monumental event took place on Monday against the hapless Twins when he recorded his 602nd save but we're just getting around to it today. Frankly, I've just been swamped trying to catch up on all these naps. Our resident Yankees fan, Derwood, wanted to write a heart-warming post about it but he threw a ticker tape party in his apartment and has spent the past few days trying to find his cat under the mounds of shredded Chinese food menus.

I'm not a fan of the saves stat because, well, it's ridiculous and promotes poor bullpen management but I'm not trying to take anything away from Mo. He's the greatest closer of all time and should own the record. It's about time somebody started talking about him.

My favorite part about Mo setting the record was something I, of course, gleamed from Twitter. The Yankees were on the verge of taking the save opportunity away from Rivera but Nick Swisher came to the rescue and hit into a double play. Luckily, Yahoo's David Brown was watching the post game interview...

I didn't bother to check for video evidence of this statement because I wanted it to be true and Dave assured me anyway...

See? I have been burned by people on Twitter before though. I gave that guy who sent me a tweet about a free ipad my social security number and now I steal wi-fi from the coffee shop next to the alley I live in.

I respect the hell out of Rivera. But if he intentionally poked fun at the saves record he broke, he's entering a Fonzie-esque level of cool. *hits juke box* Saaaaaayyyyyyves. That was awful. Apologies all the way around.

Our Intern Saw Moneyball

Somehow, my intern received a pass to an early screening of Moneyball. Meanwhile, I'll watch it this weekend with the real movie-going public. I am a man of the people, after all. Also, I couldn't get a pass because nobody seems to know or care who I am. I will be demanding retribution in the future, jerks.

Anyway, this isn't about my sense of self-entitlement. I'll touch on that again during my review. Our intern, Filosofer, shared some quick thoughts about Moneyball and really enjoyed it. I'll have a much more detailed review after I see it. Fair warning, I was pessimistic before Keith Law dismantled it.

Without further ado, here are Filosofer's thoughts on the film based on the book written by Billy Beane about how he saved Oakland from certain doom at the hands of space robots using only math...


When Moneyball hits theaters Sept. 23, you might want to check it out.

If you’re a fan of sabermetrics (and, since you’re reading this blog…), how can you not love a movie about a book which focused on sabermetrics?

But the film doesn’t alienate non-sabermetricians. The statistics used in the game are actually fairly minimal. The ideas are there, but it’s essentially watered down to ‘walks are good.’ There’s a decent balance, though.

There was surprisingly little baseball shown in the film, but a lot of action within the front office that kept it interesting.

It would have been nice to keep a tally of how many chairs were harmed in the making of this film, though.

For as tense as some of the scenes can get, there were always comedic elements thrown in, and there was plenty of laughter throughout the two hours.

Fans of Aaron Sorkin’s Sports Night will almost certainly enjoy Moneyball, even though it’s not just Sorkin’s screenplay. There are definitely some similarities between the two, but the dialogue is noticeably different.

Sports Night’s dialogue was typically quick, witty and cyclical. Moneyball’s tends to be more direct. Although the first time Beane tries to get his scouts on board with sabermetrics is very Sports Night-esque.

Also, isn’t it ironic that Steven Soderbergh got fired for wanting to use unorthodox methods of filming for a movie about using unorthodox methods?

Now I just need to figure out who I want to dress up as for my opening night viewing.

Thanks, bud. Man, how before its time was Sport's Night? Loved that show. Stay tuned for more Moneyball madness.

A Conversation With Fake A.J. Burnett

Here's an actual text message back-and-forth I had with fake A.J. Burnett after today's Yankees game:

Fake A.J.: "Hello. I'm A.J. Burnett."

Derwood: "How did you get my phone number?"

Fake A.J.: "I looked it up."

Derwood: "Well, can you do me a favor and never use the number again?"

Fake A.J.: "But I wanted to offer you my autograph."

Derwood: "I'll give you a bag of cat urine for it."

Fake A.J.: "Deal!"

Tigers Lose! Tigers Lose! Tigers Lose!

The staff at Offbase would like to thank the following for their work on September 15, 2011:

1. The Oakland A's

John Axford Seems Cool

I'm pretty sure I should be friends with John Axford. Is he on Facebook? Twitter? What's not to like about the guy? Okay, he's Canadian but I can let that slide. This time. The "Ax Man" is a sweet nickname even if it's obvious, he has impressive facial hair and his middle name is Berton. Axford also played high school badminton (I was a prodigy) and used to be a bartender (I like to drink)...

"It was much better than the cellphone job," said Axford. "There, I didn't talk to anybody but customers and try and sell phones. But when people come in to your restaurant, they're already hungry, they're going to want to eat, they're going to want a drink. You don't really have to sell things too much unless you're trying to push a dessert on them or something or an extra beer."

It's a good thing throwing a 97 MPH fastball worked out for him because he sounds like a terrible server. Gotta sell that cheesecake, Ax Man.

Axford struggled in the Yankees minor leagues in 2007 and again with the Brewers as a starter at High-A in 2008. But in 2009, as a reliever, he pitched his way to Milwaukee and earned his first save. Last year, Axford threw a 2.48/2.13/2.79 (ERA/FIP/xFIP) pitching line and recorded 24 saves for the Brewers. He hasn't been as good this season with a 2.10/2.51/2.86 line and his strikeout rate is down (11.79 K/9 to 10.62) and his home run to fly ball rate nearly tripled (2.4% to 6.6%). But he has 42 saves so I guess that makes him an elite closer. I kid about the saves but he is the best option for the Brewers and a damn good reliever despite what Francisco Rodriguez has to say.

It's not that K-Rod is having a bad season, 2.86/2.91/3.20, but his recent outburst about not closing and history of questionable makeup might cost him money next season. I'll always be grateful for his masterful performance for the Angels during the championship run in 2002 but I bet he's a terrible badminton player. Choose your partner K-Rod. The Ax Man and I will crush you. Loser pays the bar tab.

Extra super bonus points to Axford for rocking this stache...