Sunday, July 31, 2011

Weaver Loses Temper, Verlander Loses No-Hitter


Sunday's Angels-Tigers game lived up to its hype. Billed as a pitchers duel between two of the AL's best, it fell just shy of pistols from becoming an actual duel. Both Jered Weaver and Justin Verlander entered the day with a 5.1 fWAR, good for second in the American League. Weaver and Verlander were also in the top four in ERA, FIP and WPA. But those will all be topics for a future post, this is about one day game and what happened close to the chalk lines.

The excitement started in the bottom of the third inning. After Weaver managed to somehow put Don Kelly on base with a walk, Magglio Ordonez hit a hanging change-up 388 feet. Ordonez watched the ball stay fair for the two-run home run. Weaver took exception to the time it took Ordonez to leave the batter's box and shot him a combo stink/evil eye as he rounded the bases. Weaver shook it off and retired the next 12 Tigers he faced.

Fast forwarding to the bottom of the seventh inning, Weaver surrendered a solo home run to Carlos Guillen. Guillen, unlike Ordonez earlier, deliberately showed up the Angels ace by watching the homer, flipping his bat and turning toward Weaver during a sideways trot to first. Home Plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt went to the mound in an attempt to cool off the visibly upset Weaver and issued warnings to both benches. Cooler heads would prevail until Weaver's very next pitch.


Weaver threw over Mike Avila's head and began walking off the mound and yelling at Guillen in the dugout before Wendelstedt could make the ejection motion. I certainly don't condone a pitcher throwing at another player's head and I'm afraid a suspension is looming. Personally I choose to believe that pitch got away from Weaver and wasn't meant for Avila's head. I don't cheer for retaliation.


Oh, right.

In the meantime, Verlander was just tossing another no-hitter through seven innings. Still 3-0, Erick Aybar led of the eighth inning with a "violation of the unwritten rules of no-hitter decency" bunt. Verlander fielded it, threw it away and got the benefit of some home cooking from the scorer. Ruled an error, Verlander kept his no-hitter in tact. Mark Trumbo grounded Aybar to third and then Aybar would score on a bizarre fielder's choice/rundown between third and home. Howie Kendrick struck out before Maicer Izturis broke up the no-hitter with a liner into left field.

Verlander had some choice words for Aybar which seemed to indicate a fastball has Ayabar's name on it next time around. Jose Valverde closed the game to give the Tigers a 3-2 win. Now for some post game quotes courtesy of ESPN.com...
"I had a lot of respect for those guys, but then they stand at the plate and do something like that," Weaver said. "I'm not going to try to hit someone, but what Guillen did crossed the line."
See? Told you guys he wasn't trying to hit Avila.
"I don't hit many homers anymore, and I wanted to make sure that it stayed fair," Ordonez said. "After that, he was yelling at me to run faster, and I told him that I'm old -- that's as fast as I run.

"I'm not going to show anyone up. That's not me."
Funny and true.
"Magglio has 14 years in the major leagues," said Guillen, one of Ordonez's closest friends. "You don't tell him to run. I respect people when they respect us. If you don't respect us, you don't get it."
Guillen defending respect with one asshole action after another.
"I know it was only 3-0, so I can understand there are arguments on both sides. But as a pitcher, we call that bush league," he (Verlander) said. "I think he was trying to get his team back into the game, but I also think it was a response to things that had happened before."
Blame that respectmonger Guillen.
"That's my game -- I don't have power," he (Aybar) said. "(Verlander) told me he'd get me next year, and I said that was OK."
While true, Aybar has more home runs this season than Ordonez and Guillen combined. It was a little dick-ish. Awesome. And a little dick-ish.

And then Torii Hunter summed it all up.
"That was stupid -- it was all stupid. Everybody was stupid," he said. "That was unprofessional on both sides."
Maybe. Or best game of the season.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Tim Wakefield Records 2,000th Red Sox Strikeout

To show that I'm not completely insensitive to round numbers, I will now attempt to write more words about Tim Wakefield striking out 2,000 hitters as a Red Sock than I wrote about Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit. And that should do it. See, my 40-ish word summation of Jeter's accomplishment was less about hating on him or the Yankees and more about our weird pedestaling of round numbers.

Well, obviously, 3,000 hits is more significant than 2,000 strikeouts with one team but the fans of round numbers were on their feet and clapping like circus seals Sunday night after Wakefield struck out Matt Carp (Adam Dunn struck out watching the highlight). Wake joins Roger Clemens as the only two pitchers to record 2,000 strikeouts as Red Sox. It only took the knuckelballer four more seasons (17-13) in Beantown to get to that meaningless number.

Much like Clemens, Wakefield also racked up some K numbers outside of Boston. He recorded 210 in Pittsburgh for 2,210 so far in his career. Clemens dabbled in a few more cities and finished with 4,672 strikeouts so you can see the similarities between the two.

Boston manager Terry Francona wasn't even sure how to handle such a monumental milestone...
“So not quite sure how to react to that,’’ Francona said. “I was thrilled people were showing their appreciation. I just kind of sit there and say, ‘I’ll shake his hand when he comes out.’ ’’

That happened in the seventh, when Wakefield gave up four consecutive hits, capped by Ryan’s second career slam. Still, it didn’t stop the crowd from treating Wakefield to another standing ovation.

“I’d like to have that seventh inning back,’’ said Wakefield, who acknowledged it was difficult to collect himself after all the adulation over the 2,000th strikeout. “I was very fortunate that we were able to score 12 runs today, which made it a lot easier."
Not exactly the dominant performance you'd expect from such a highly skilled strikeout artist. Oh well. Wakefield will have a chance for another standing ovation soon as he's sitting at 199 career wins. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to attempt my 200th nap of the season, joining other legends Connie Mack, Garfield and Andy Capp.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Adam Dunn Realizes He's Awful

Adam Dunn has spent the past two games watching the White Sox from the bench as baseball's version of a healthy scratch. While it was two of his better games in July, it gave him some time to reflect on his regrettable season. Despite owning Dunn in fantasy baseball, this is becoming one of my favorite stories of the year. Dunn, one of MLB's most consistent power hitters for 10 years, mysteriously turned into the little league kid who swings with his eyes closed.

Dunn's .158/.289/.299 line is embarrassingly the lowest of his otherwise underrated career. How bad has it gotten for Dunn? His .273 wOBA (weighted On Base Average) is the exact same as uber bust Brandon Wood. (Sorry to pick on you, Brandon. I'll still root for you when you're a Yuma Scorpion next year.) At least Dunn realizes he's a shell of the shell of his former self and even talked retirement with Yahoo! Sports...
“Flat out. I’ll go home. I mean that. Swear to goodness. I’ll. Go. Home. I enjoy playing. Even though I suck. Or have been sucking. I enjoy playing the game. Love it. But as soon as I lose that, I’m gone, dude. It’s true."

snip

“How many games can you play doing this? This is ridiculous."
But Sox GM Kenny Williams shouldn't be expecting a check for the rest of Dunn's $56 million contract in the mail anytime soon. Dunn may acknowledge his suckitude and talk a good game about quitting but that doesn't mean he's actually going to...
“It’s not going to happen,” he says. “Zero chance. Zero. You can’t get this competition anywhere else, dude. I don’t care where you look. Nowhere else. It’s one-on-one, dude. And you can’t find that anywhere."
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, Adam, but what you're doing right now doesn't count as competition. I'd suggest taking up ping pong but with your recent struggles making contact with a ball maybe you'd be better served joining a Skee Ball league. I hear those dudes are getting pretty serious plus with enough tickets you can get a sweet mustache comb.

Monday, July 18, 2011

Ozzie Guillen Won't Protect Adam Dunn

White Sox manager/crazy person Ozzie Guillen doesn't need or use stats to fill out a lineup card and, for that, Juan Pierre thanks him. Guillen also doesn't care if a player might break the single season strikeout mark as long as that player isn't hurting the team. So Guillen won't sit Adam Dunn and his .160/.290/.302 line. Wait, what?
"I will sit him down if he's not helping the ballclub, but not because of a mark," Guillen said Sunday. "Not at all, no. (If) we need him to take a break and give somebody a chance, I will do it.

snip

"(But) I just worry about putting the best guys out there every time," Guillen said.

"Every time Dunn or (Alex) Rios is there, I feel like they have a chance. But it's not what I feel. It's how they feel."
Dunn has crossed the Godfather III threshold into the "made a donation in your name present" territory on the chart of disappointment this season. Dunn is having the worst year of his career and it's not even close. His strikeout rate is the highest of his career at 36.4% and his .274 wOBA is 79 points worse than his previous low. Even removing most of his atrocious defense by DHing and playing a little fist base, Dunn is still putting up a -1.6 WAR which, by definition, means he's worse than a replacement level player.

But, Ozzie keeps running him out there and hoping for the best. So far this season, the "best" is 1-4 with three strikeouts. The strikeouts are piling up (122 in 335 plate appearances) but he is still a long way from Mark Reynolds magical 223 strikeout record season of 2009. Fangraphs ZiPS is projecting 81 strikeouts for the rest of the season leaving Dunn with a mere 203. Of course, those projections don't have Dunn accumulating over 600 plate appearances so maybe they were nervous about Guillen pulling the plug on Dunn's terribleness. Silly projections.

Friday, July 15, 2011

PECOTA Doesn't Love The Angels

This is nothing new, of course, since the Angels routinely outperform their expected winning percentage under Mike Scioscia. Despite winning 14 of 17 and only being one win over their expected record entering the break, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA still doesn't give the Halos much of a chance to make the playoffs in the Reset Odds piece on ESPN.com (Insider required). The new projections give the Angels an 18.4% to make the postseason (17.9 for the division, 0.5 wild card) which is actually up 5.2% from the preseason round of nerd math.

Obviously, the landscape could change quite a bit over the next two weeks before the July 31st trade deadline. The Angels have already called upon top prospect Mike Trout but his role on the team remains unclear once Peter Bourjos returns from a hamstring injury. As far as turning to the trade market, the rumors vary wildly. ESPN LA's Mark Saxon heard from a source that the Angels will be "pinching pennies" which makes some sense after they took on one of baseball's most lucrative and absurd contracts in Vernon Wells this off-season.

On the other side of the spectrum, NBC New York tries to make a case for Carlos Beltran getting shipped to Orange County. It seems highly unlikely that the Angels would take on that kind of salary even with the Mets kicking in some cash. Finding room in the lineup for Beltran is even more problematic with Bourjos, Wells, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu sharing outfield and DH duties and that's without even trying to get Trout more time.

The trade rumor I could actually get on board with was brought up in a recent Jonah Keri article for ESPN.com (Insider required). Keri suggested the Angels could give up a pair of pitching prospects for San Diego closer Heath Bell. A bullpen stocked with Bell, Scott Downs and Jordan Walden added to aces Jered Weaver and Dan Haren is a formula that tends to do well in October. If Bell isn't re-signed, he figures to be a Type A free agent and would get the Angels a couple more picks in the 2012 draft.

The Angels could also just benefit from improved in-house play like more production from Vernon Wells and less playing time for Jeff Mathis. Wells can't be as bad as his current .222/.248/.409 line suggests even if Fangraphs ZiPS projection for the rest of the season (.252/.298/.430) isn't that much better. Meanwhile, Mathis (.195/.241/.286) is every bit as terrible as he usually is but Scioscia keeps running him out there just in case Mathis has some incriminating photos of the skipper.

The bottom line is that the AL West is a very winnable division for the Angels, especially with Weaver and Haren anchoring the rotation. I just don't understand why PECOTA gives the Rangers an 80.5% chance to win the West but I'm no scientist regardless of what I might tell women in bars. By the way, "race car driver" works much better than "scientist."

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Jose Cano Is Not A Good Pitcher

Robinson Cano blasted his way past Adrian Gonzalez Monday night to capture the 2011 Home Run Derby crown. It was quite the show. Cano hit a record breaking 12 home runs in the final round including the 472-foot winner with four outs to go. Some writers suggested this was Cano's coming out party or whatnot. Although I thought Cano was a long shot to win, it's not like he's been flying under the radar. Cano is a Yankee after all and has had an ISO over .200 for the past two seasons and .199 in 2009. I don't think a Home Run Derby championship was needed to get a 25-30 home run per season second baseman playing in New York some attention.

The other angle played up in every post/article/conversation about Cano's victory is, of course, that he had his father pitching to him during the competition. Jose Cano surrendered home run after home run to his son. I would have preferred to see Jose throw one high and inside just to remind Robbie who's the boss (it was Angela) but what do I know about parenting. The closest I've come is using my 4-year-old nephew to try to pick up women in the park. It was a really cool story though. Then we all needed to be reminded that Jose Cano was a former Houston Astros pitcher. Which is true.

The elder Cano pitched 23 innings in 1989. He gave up 24 hits, 13 runs, 2 homers and walked 7 for a 5.09 ERA. I'm pretty sure giving up 32 homers to his son will be the much fonder baseball memory. Either way, I felt it was my duty to point out that Jose Cano is/was a lousy pitcher. If you include his Home Run Derby performance, by my math, his MLB career ERA would be around 900.

We still have a soft spot in our hearts for Jose here. At last year's All Star game festivities, he asked occasional Off Base editor Derwood to take a picture with him. Derwood is the short white guy not wearing the "Team Cano" shirt if any of you were confused.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Your 2011 All Star Game Payrolls

Ever wonder how much an All Star team would cost? Well, I do too after roughly half (or 10%, if you want to split hairs) of Major League players were, at some point, added to the 2011 All Star rosters. This year's biggest snub, Andrew McCutchen, was seemingly passed over half a dozen times before being added to the NL squad and now he's starting for them. I was at work and the voicemail is a little garbled but I think I had a chance to replace Jon Lester on the AL team if I could have correctly named the Academy Award winner for best movie in 1975.

Despite players backing out because of injuries, faux-juries, travel plans and overall disinterest, MLB will still play the All Star Game on Tuesday. It's a good thing it counts for something. Anyway, here are the payrolls...

American League All StarsNational League All Stars
Starters:Starters:
C Alex Avila, DET - $450,000C Brian McCann, ATL - $6,500,000
1B Adrian Gonzalez, BOS- $5,500,001B Prince Fielder, MIL - $15,500,000
2B Robinson Cano, NYY - $10,000,0002B Rickie Weeks, MIL - $3,500,000
3B Adrian Beltre, TEX - $14,000,0003B Scott Rolen, CIN - $6,500,000
SS Asdrubal Cabrera, CLE - $2,025,000SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL - $5,500,000
OF Jose Bautista, TOR - $8,000,000OF Lance Berkman, HOU - $8,000,000
OF Curtis Granderson, NYY - $8,250,000OF Andrew McCutchen, PIT - $452,500
OF Josh Hamilton, TEX - $7,250,000OF Matt Kemp, LAD - $6,950,000
DH David Ortiz, BOS - $12,500,000
Pitchers:Pitchers:
Josh Beckett, BOS - $15,750,000Heath Bell, SD - $7,500,000
Aaron Crow, KC - $1,000,000 Tyler Clippard, WAS - $433,000
Gio Gonzalez, OAK - $420,000Kevin Correia, PIT - $3,000,000
Brandon League, SEA - $2,250,000 Roy Halladay, PHI - $20,000,000
Alexi Ogando, TEX - $430,150Joel Hanrahan, PIT - $1,400,000
Chris Perez, CLE - $2,225,000Jair Jurjjens, ATL - $3,250,000
Michael Pineda, SEA - $414,000Clayton Kershaw, LAD - $500,000
David Robertson, NYY - $460,450Craig Kimbrel, ATL - $419,000
Ricky Romero, TOR - $750,000Cliff Lee, PHI - $11,000,000
Jose Valverde, DET - $7,000,000Tim Lincecum, SF - $13,000,000
Jordan Walden, LAA - $414,000Jonny Venters, ATL $429,500
Jered Weaver, LAA - $7,370,000Ryan Vogelsong, SF - $414,500
C.J. Wilson, TEX - $7,000,000Brian Wilson, SF - $6,500,000
Reserves:Reserves:
C Russell Martin, NYY - $4,000,000C Yadier Molina, STL - $5,250,000
C Matt Wieters, BAL - $452,250C Miguel Montero, ARI - $3,200,000
1B Miguel Cabrera, DET - $20,000,0001B Gaby Sanchez, FLA - $431,000
1B Paul Konerko, CWS - $12,000,0001B Joey Votto, CIN - $5,500,000
2B Howie Kendrick, LAA - $3,300,0002B Brandon Phillips, CIN - $11,000,000
3B Kevin Youklis, BOS - $12,000,0003B Pablo Sandoval, SF - $500,000
SS Jhonny Peralta, CLE - $5,250,000SS Starlin Castro, CHC - $440,000
OF Michael Cuddyer, MIN - $10,500,000OF Carlos Beltran, NYM - $18,500,000
OF Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS - $2,400,000OF Hunter Pence, HOU - $6,900,000
OF Matt Joyce, TB - $426,500OF Jay Bruce, CIN - $2,750,000
OF Carlos Quentin, CWS - $5,050,000OF Andre Ethier, LAD - $9,250,000
DH Michael Young, TEX - $16,000,000OF Matt Holliday, STL - $17,000,000
OF Justin Upton, ARI - $4,250,000



AL Starters TotalNL Starters Total
$67,950,000$52,902,500
AL Starters AVGNL Starters AVG
$7,550,000$6,612,813
AL Pitchers TotalNL Pitchers Total
$45,483,600$67,856,000
AL Pitchers AVGNL Pitchers AVG
$3,498,738$5,219,692
AL Reserves TotalNL Reserves Total
$91,378,750$84,971,000
AL Reserves AVGNL Reserves AVG
$7,614,896$6,536,231
AL TotalNL Total
$204,812,350$205,729,500
AL AVGNL AVG
$6,023,893$6,050,868


UPDATE:Matt Holliday will start in place of Ryan Braun instead of Andrew McCutchen. Unfortunately, I no longer have the desire to correct this post since it appears to be to subject to change until Wednesday morning.

Notes
Here's the link to last year's ASG payrolls. No, I haven't gotten any better at HTML since then.

What a difference a year makes. Actually, what a difference the Yankees make. Last year the AL crushed the NL in All Star salary due to the Yanks. It's much more even this year after Alex Rodriguez, CC Sabathia, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera won't be participating after making the team. That's $86,285,714 of payroll between them. You could buy the NL reserves for that.

Andrew McCutchen is criminally underappreciated and underpaid. With four years of arbitration ahead of him with the Pirates, it will be interesting to see which one corrects itself first.

Special thanks to Off Base intern @Filosomesa who tracked down all of the contract info for me. Cots is a great site and all but the poor guy had to look up almost every player in baseball.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Our Obligatory Derek Jeter 3,000th Hit Post

Derek Jeter got his 3,000th hit on Saturday. It was a home run and he went 5-5. He now sports a .270/.331/.354 line this season and will continue to hit lead-off. Minka Kelly.

All right people, move along. There is nothing to see here.